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Class 17: Lomborg. P. Brian Fisher CofC : POLS 405 Spring 2010. Vid. Lomborg , “ Our Priorities For Saving the World ” (17m). Lomborg’s Arguments on Temperature Increase. Global Mean Temp is projected to increase 4.7°C by 2100; however, no one lives at this temperature.

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class 17 lomborg

Class 17: Lomborg

P. Brian Fisher

CofC: POLS405

Spring 2010

  • Lomborg,

“Our Priorities For Saving the World” (17m)

lomborg s arguments on temperature increase
Lomborg’s Arguments on Temperature Increase
  • Global Mean Temp is projected to increase 4.7°C by 2100; however, no one lives at this temperature.
  • Lomborg: True, there will be more heat deaths from GCC, but there will also be fewer cold deaths (more people die from cold than heat).
  • Many deaths are from heat-island effects in cities, and we can alleviate them, by planting more trees (to create more moisture) and by creating more reflective surfaces
lomborg on kyoto
Lomborg on Kyoto
  • Temperature decrease from Kyoto measures would be 0.1°F by 2050 and 0.3°F by 2100—this is insignificant
  • Without a Post-Kyoto agreement, the effects from the 2008-2012 would only be reduce temp for 7 days.
  • Costs: could be as high as $180b/yr (based on 2008 data) or 0.5% global GDP
  • Lomborg: World will get more efficient as technology increases (e.g. In US, avg car has “improved its mileage by 67% since 1973.”
lomborg s costs of gcc
Lomborg’s Costs of GCC
  • Cutting carbon dioxide costs about $20 per ton and it only does $2 worth of good.
    • McKinnsey Cost Abatement: They concluded that we could stabilize at 450ppm at zero net cost.
    • At 450ppm, peaking now, would likely result in temp increase of less than 3°C, and most likely about 2.5°C
  • Lomborgest that to stabilize at 2.7°C would require $84t.
  • Benefits wouldn’t outpace costs until 2250.
lomborg s proposal
Lomborg’s Proposal
  • Massive investments in R&D
    • Commit 0.05% of GDP
    • Should be enough to keep temp from increasing beyond 5°F (from today).
  • Avoid emission cuts—waste of $$
    • b/c “global warming damages run about 1% GDP, while cost is at 2% GDP
    • Stern: Cost is 1% GDP while benefits are 20% (giving increasing costs of inaction)
evidence suggests
Evidence suggests…
  • 1. Understanding of GCC is shaped by exaggerated accounts by media
  • 2. we are overly obsessed with regulating CO2—we should consider the positive effects from increased warming
  • 3. GCC is not the only issue we need to tackle. There are other more important priorities.
other issues and facts
Other Issues and Facts

Every year…

  • 4m die from malnutrition
    • $12b could halve the deaths
  • 3m from HIV/AIDS
  • 2.5m from air pollution
  • 2m from lack of clean drinking water
  • 1m from malaria
    • $13b would halve the # of deaths.
millennium development goals
Millennium Development Goals
  • Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
  • Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education
  • Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women
  • Goal 4: Reduce child mortality
  • Goal 5: Improve maternal health
  • Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases
  • Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability
  • Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development