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The 6 th Open Assembly of the Northern Research Forum Open Assembly Panel: International law, “Soft Laws” and Governance on ice: Economic, Cultural and Political Implications Arctic Shipping Development Prospects Evaluation: Nuclear Icebreaker Fleet in the Northern Sea Route

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The 6th Open Assembly of the Northern Research Forum

Open Assembly Panel: International law, “Soft Laws” and Governance on ice: Economic, Cultural and Political Implications

Arctic Shipping Development Prospects Evaluation:

Nuclear Icebreaker Fleet in the Northern Sea Route

Khomiakova Tatiana

[email protected]

Hveragerði, Iceland

3 - 5 September, 2011

1 data and methodology

1. Data and Methodology

This research is supported by the unique database of potential investment projects in all sectors of Russia’s economy and, in particular, infrastructure development projects in all regions of Russia till year 2020.

The database has been collected in the course of the structured request to the Federal authorities, regional authorities and business in Russia.

The research methodology comprises of:

1) qualitative methods

2) mapping and geographic analysis techniques (MapInfo);

3) quantitative methods.


Transport Corridors, Natural Resources Development Territories, Processing Industry Territories in Russia till Year 2020

- - -Northern Sea Route

Natural Resources Development Territories:

extraction of fuel and energy mineral resources

precious metals and precious stones extraction,

extraction of widely-spread resources,

extraction of other resources

Source: Author


Natural resources development territories generating nsr cargo flows

Natural Resources Development Territories Generating NSR Cargo Flows

1) Oil and gas

Yamal Peninsula - main Arctic energy province for decades to come

hydrocacrbon reserves of the Yamal Peninsula - 50 trillion m3

up to 65 million tons of gas will be supplied to the Asian-Pacific markets after the construction of several LNG plants

2) Non-ferrous Metals, Ferrous Metals and Other Ore Minerals

about 85% of nickel , 60% of copper reserves, and over 95% of platinum is concentrated in the Norilsk industrial region;

manganese ores and complex ores in Novaya Zemlya;

ore minerals in Taimyr and Northern Yakutia.


New opportunities for the nsr

New Opportunities for the NSR Cargo Flows

The NSR cargo load will intensify owing to new railway siding to the White Sea, Barents Sea and Kara Sea.


Nuclear powered icebreaker fleet in russia

6 Cargo FlowsNuclear Icebreakers

Nuclear Container Carrier “Sevmor-put” (1988

2 Decommiss-ioned Special Vessels: mv “Lepse” and mv “Volodarsky”

3 Decommiss-ioned icebreakers:

i/b “Lenin” (1959),

i/b “Sibir” (1978),

i/b “Arctika” (1975)


Special Vessels

4 Icebreakers of Arctika Type: i/b “Rossia” (1985),

i/b “Sovetsky Soyuz” (1989), i/b “Yamal” (1992), i/b “50 Let Pobedy” (2007)

2 Icebreakers of Taimyr Type: i/b “Taimyr” (1988),

i/b “Vaygach” (1990)

(river icebreakers)


Nuclear Icebreaker Fleet

(operated by Rosatomflot)

10 Nuclear Icebreakers

Special Vessels

Nuclear-Powered Icebreaker Fleet in Russia

4 special


gical vessels


Annual freight traffic activity on the nsr million ton

Annual Freight Traffic Activity on the NSR, million ton Cargo Flows

Source: Cited as in “СМП вновь оживает” (NSR is revitalizing again,

April 29, 2011) for years 1987-2010 and author’s estimates for years 2011-2030


Transit potential of the nsr as nexus between europe and asia pacific region

Transit Potential of the NSR as Nexus between Europe and Asia-Pacific Region

5 years ago, UN estimated transit fotreign cargo:

5-6 million ton a year in the eastern direction

2-3 million ton a year in the western direction

The transit routes through the NSR:

are quite attractive for foreign cargo owners

have great potential to attract transit cargoes in the Arctic

In August 2010, a pilot transit of the Arctic ice class 1А Super (Arc5) tanker «SCF Baltica» on the NSR

tanker delivered 70,000 of gas condensate of “Novatek” company from Murmansk to Ningbo (China)

via the NSR


Requirements for an economical usage of the nsr

Requirements for an Economical Usage of the NSR Asia-Pacific Region

operational perspectiveice route optimization system

administrative perspectiveregulation and fee structures


4 sateges of the nuclear icebreaker fleet development till year 2030

4 Sateges of the Nuclear Icebreaker Fleet Development till Year 2030

Stage 1. Years: 2010-2015

Stage 2. Years: 2015-2020

Stage 3. Years: 2020-2025

Stage 4. Years: 2025-2030


Stage 1 yea rs 2010 2015

Stage 1. Year 2030Years: 2010-2015


Stage 2 yea rs 2015 2020

Stage 2. Year 2030Years: 2015-2020


Stage 3 yea rs 2020 2025

Stage 3. Year 2030Years: 2020-2025


Stage 4 yea rs 2025 2030

Stage 4. Year 2030Years: 2025-2030


7 conclusions

7. Conclusions Year 2030

intensity of transportation has a decisive impact on where northern cities and Arctic regions will prosper

construction of 3 new universal nuclear icebreakers is of paramount importance in accordance with the projected freight traffic on the NSR

75 million ton in 2020, 90 million ton in 2025, > 100 million ton in 2030

the resource extraction companies (e.g. Norilsk Nickel) outline the importance of nuclear icebrekers on the NSR for rescue operations and safety provision

not only safety, but also regulation and fee structures are crucial for economical use of the NSR, particularly by foreign cargo and ship owners

to base at least one nuclear icebreaker in the Eastern Arctic