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Propane Market Overview & Demonstration of the PERC County Residential Propane Model version 2.0. Propane Education and Research Council. Presented by: Mike Sloan [email protected] & Richard Meyer [email protected] For Presentation Audio Call: (800) 561-4946 and Enter Code 500579 .

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Propane market overview demonstration of the perc county residential propane model version 2 0 l.jpg

Propane Market Overview & Demonstration of the PERC County Residential Propane Model version 2.0

Propane Education and Research Council

Presented by:

Mike Sloan

[email protected]

&

Richard Meyer

[email protected]

For Presentation Audio Call: (800) 561-4946 and Enter Code 500579

icfi.com

© 2006 ICF International. All rights reserved.


Slide2 l.jpg

  • Introduction to Propane Models

  • General Market Overview

    Key Issues and Trends

    Market Challenges and Opportunities

    Near and Long-Term Propane Market Outlook

  • Propane Model Discussion and Demonstration

    County Residential Propane Model (New Version 2.0)

Questions are Encouraged


What are the perc propane models l.jpg

Propane Demand and Forecasting Model v5.0

(PDFM)

County Residential Propane Model v2.0

(CRPM)

What are the PERC Propane Models?

The models estimate and project odorized propane demand by end-use sector.

  • County-level Projections

    Residential Only

  • State-level Projections

    Residential Commercial

    Reseller/Cylinder Industrial

    Agricultural Internal Combustion


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What can I use the PERC Models for?

  • Estimate Future Demand

    • By region

    • By company service territory

  • Evaluate Demand Uncertainty

    • Approximate demand potential under a variety of scenarios.

    • What will demand look like during a cold year? Warm year? High price? Low price?

  • Identify New Sales Opportunities

    • What markets are growing?

    • Where are markets growing?

  • Identify Use per Customer Trends

    • Models provide estimates on both propane customers and consumption.


Primary data sources l.jpg

US Census Bureau

1990 and 2000 Census

American Community Survey

American Housing Survey

Survey of New Residential Construction

U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)

Commercial Building Energy consumption Survey (CBECS)

Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS)

Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS)

American Petroleum Institute

Sales of Natural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases (annual survey).

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)

National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)

Gas Appliance Manufacturers Association (GAMA)

Propane Industry Sources

Harris Interactive surveys for PERC

Primary Data Sources

Much of the data, including the census data on propane households, is included in the models.


Looking forward projections of propane demand 2008 2012 l.jpg
Looking Forward – Projections of Propane Demand 2008 – 2012

  • Energy prices remain near historic high levels

    • NYMEX futures prices for propane, natural gas, fuel oil.

    • DOE electricity price forecasts (modest growth from current levels)

  • Residential housing starts do not rebound to 2000 levels before 2012.

  • General Efficiency Trends Improvements

    • Equipment and Building Shell Efficiencies

    • Combined Improvement of 1.1% per year.

  • Slow near term GDP growth

    • 1.3% in 2008

    • 2.4% in 2009

  • Propane considered “environmentally friendly” in key markets.

  • Weather “normal” is average of 1998-2004 weather.

    • This average is about 4% warmer than the 1971-2000 30-year normal.


Propane markets projection through 2012 l.jpg

Modest (+2.6%) growth in demand in 2007 due to returning to more normal weather

Modest (-1.1%) decline in demand in 2008

Demand supported by slightly colder weather

Significant decline (-4.4%) in demand in 2009 due to higher prices.

Very slow growth in other sectors partially offsets declines in residential sector.

Very small decline in demand (less than 1 percent per year) in 2010 as growth due to general economic conditions in the non-residential sectors offsets declines in the residential market.

Moderate growth in demand in 2011-2012 due to growth in all sectors.

Propane Markets Projection Through 2012

Forecast


Historically high energy prices l.jpg
Historically High Energy Prices more normal weather

  • Prices peaked in July and have retreated somewhat.

  • Significant price volatility in past 18 months.

  • Price gap between fuel oil and propane has shrunk, opening opportunities:

    • New England

    • Mid-Atlantic


Impact of propane price on recent projected propane demand l.jpg
Impact of Propane Price on Recent/Projected Propane Demand more normal weather

  • Higher prices have had a major impact on propane demand.

    • And can be expected to have a continuing impact.

  • 12 percent difference between high price and low price demand scenarios by 2010.


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Impact of Housing Market on New Propane Residential Construction Starts

  • Construction starts peaked in 2005, only to sharply drop off through the end of 2008 due to the housing slowdown.

  • Housing expected to turn around by end of 2008/mid 2009.


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Market Share of Primary Space Heating Fuels Construction Starts

  • Propane market share in new construction is increasing.

  • Electricity continues to take market share from natural gas and fuel oil.

  • Regional trends differ significantly.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


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Manufactured Housing Market Continues to Decline Construction Starts

  • Total manufactured housing placements declined from 338,000 in 1998 to about 94,000 in 2007.

  • Propane placements declined from 118,000 in 1998 to about 10,000 in 2007.

  • Future placements are expected to decline further in 2008, before rebounding slowly thereafter.

  • Older units with a high share of propane are being rapidly retired.


Impact of conservation on propane space heating consumption per household l.jpg

Between 2000 & 2007 weather normalized propane use per customer dropped by about 12.8%.

By 2010, propane space heat use per household is expected to decline by 20 percent.

Higher efficiency technologies reduce per customer demand by about 0.6% per year.

Improvements in building shell efficiency reduces per customer demand by about 0.5% per year

Price response reduces demand by an additional 5% from 2007 to 2009.

Impact of Conservation on Propane Space Heating Consumption per Household


Current consumer propane market opportunities l.jpg

High End Residential Construction customer dropped by about 12.8%.

Modular Housing

(But not manufactured housing)

New Applications in Existing Propane Homes

Tankless water heaters

Heating Oil Conversions

Fuel Oil Conversions

Engine Fuel Applications

Fleet vehicles

Commercial mowers

Irrigation pumps

Backup generation/distributed generation

Current Consumer Propane Market Opportunities

The current high energy price market has created an opportunity for propane in every market where propane competes with distillate fuel oil. (Primarily home heating fuel oil markets and engine fuel markets.)

We expect the “price window” to close somewhat from current levels. However, changes in U.S. and international regulations, and promotion of diesel in fuel efficiency programs are likely to lead to high distillate prices relative to crude oil for the foreseeable future.


Propane conversion opportunities l.jpg
Propane Conversion Opportunities customer dropped by about 12.8%.

  • 3 million propane customers could add propane water heating and/or cooking applications.

    • About 430,000 cooktop replacements and 431,000 water heater replacements occur naturally each year.

  • Substantial market for conversion of fuel oil customers, especially in Northeast.

    • 400,000 fuel oil customers replace furnaces and water heaters each year.


Propane internal combustion engine sector l.jpg
Propane Internal Combustion Engine Sector customer dropped by about 12.8%.

  • Growth in forklift propane demand is expected to offset near term declines in on-road propane use.

  • Projected growth in new propane on-road vehicles indicates growth in this market starting in 2008.


Questions l.jpg
Questions? customer dropped by about 12.8%.


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New in PERC Propane Models customer dropped by about 12.8%.

  • New Forecasts, Now Extended Through 2012.

  • New Data

    • Weather & Energy Prices Updated through mid-2008

    • American Community Survey 2006 (implemented where applicable)

    • Survey of New Residential Construction 2007

    • American Petroleum Institute Survey 2007

  • Updated User-Interface in County Model.

    • New Control Panel

    • Streamlined Design Now More Intuitive


County model new user interface structure l.jpg

Scenario Builder customer dropped by about 12.8%.

Control Panel

Select Counties

Run the Model

&

Two Run Scenario Comparison

Customize County Household Data

Print Shortcut

Scenario Comparison Output Tables

County Model New User-Interface Structure

Single RunOutput Tables


Hardware software requirements l.jpg
Hardware / Software Requirements customer dropped by about 12.8%.

  • CRPM and PDFM developed in Excel 2003.

    • Tested on Microsoft Excel 2007 and Windows Vista

  • Computer Requirements

    • CRPM Memory Requirements – Model may take few minutes to run

    • Number of counties selected at one time will affect speed performance.

  • Macro Security


Model demonstration l.jpg
Model Demonstration customer dropped by about 12.8%.


Outline of model demonstration l.jpg
Outline of Model Demonstration customer dropped by about 12.8%.

  • Show Title page, Control Panel, and review basic structure of CRPM.

  • Select Counties (3 in N. Oregon, 1 in S. Washington)

    • Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, Clark

    • Show optional “Save To” and “Restore From” feature.

  • Run one scenario, observe output.

    • Note analysis times vary proportional to number of counties selected.

    • Discuss types of data found in Output Tables

      • Note relative year-to-year change in consumption for the counties.

    • Discuss “Chart Usage” and “Chart County” Pivot table graphs.

  • Scenario Comparison (Compare two model runs)

    • Overview Scenario Builder and different factors that can be adjusted.

    • Run a Cold/Warm weather scenario.

      • Highlight comparison table / chart

    • Back to Scenario Builder, run two price scenarios using spot price.

      • Scenarios will be pre-set and loaded from the model. This will exhibit the Save/Restore feature on the Scenario Builder.

      • High price = Base Case * 1.2. Low price = Base Case * 0.8

      • Compare output using Scenario Comparison on Control Panel

  • User-Defined Values

    • Explain purpose of Res_Stock_Def_User page, and how propane stocks that are input now automatically adjust future years.


Questions23 l.jpg
Questions? customer dropped by about 12.8%.


Propane market overview demonstration of the perc county residential propane model version 2 024 l.jpg

Propane Market Overview & customer dropped by about 12.8%. Demonstration of the PERC County Residential Propane Model version 2.0

Propane Education and Research Council

Presented by:

Mike Sloan

[email protected]

&

Richard Meyer

[email protected]

icfi.com

© 2006 ICF International. All rights reserved.


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