考慮產品擴散過程下的綑綁策略

1. 考慮產品擴散過程下的綑綁策略 Bundling Strategy Considering Product Diffusion Processes 褚志鵬 陳俞任 國立東華大學 企業管理學系暨運籌管理研究所 中正大學經濟學系 演講

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3. Motivation & Intention The firm hope to gain more profit Bundling strategy The diffusion processes of the bundling product ？ How to price when to bundle Diffusion Model

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5. Bundling strategy Bundling strategy Producer The scholars focus on the price strategy of the bundling, they set the optimal price not only using the basic of the economic theory but also the mathematical method (Adams & Yellen, 1976; Guiltinan, 1987; Eppen et al., 1991; Venkatesh & Mahajan, 1993; Robert & Hermann, 2000) Consumer The scholars focus on the consumers evaluate the processes of separate products or the preference of consumers behavior. (Varadarajan, 1985; Yadav & Monroe, 1993; Yadav, 1994;Yadav, 1995; Harlam et al., 1995) How to price

6. Multiproduct Diffusion Model The multiproduct interaction on process of innovation diffusion (Peterson & Mahajan, 1978) The scholars investigate the diffusion of multiproduct most only discuss the relative of the multiproduct (Gupta, Jain & Sawhney,1999; Kim, Chang &Shocker,2000; Shocker, Bayus & Kim, 2004) ？ The diffusion processes of the bundling product

7. Hotelling’s Model Diffusion Model Bundling strategy Hotelling’s model

8. Literature Review • Key papers of the model construct Delphine & Francis (1999) Persuasive advertising in Hotelling’s model of product differentiation Multiproduct monopoly Jay (2006) Tying in two-Sided Market with Multi-Homing Tying=bundling Diffusion Bass (1969) A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables

9. The Concept of Diffusion • Definition: “The Information aboutan innovation (or product) is transmitted through certain channelsover time among the members within a social system,” by which the communication channels consist of both the mass media and interpersonal communications (Rogers, 2003)

10. Communication Channels • The communication channels, which are the process by which people develop and share the information about the product with each other to reach a mutual understanding within the social system, consist of both the “mass media” and “word-of-mouth.”

11. Frank Bass Bass Diffusion Model f(t): PDF F(t): CDF p: the coefficient of innovation q: the coefficient of imitation

12. Connections result in Imitators • According to the concept of Bass diffusion model, the adopters of an innovation are categorized as: • Innovators: the adopters who are influenced by mass media • Imitators: the adopters who are influenced by interpersonal communications. proportion of innovator (due to mass media) market potential proportion of imitator (due to word-of-mouth)

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14. Basic assumption of Model Multiproduct monopoly Firm 1.Pure components strategy Single product a Single product c 2.Pure bundling strategy Bundling product B Consumer 1. Buy a, c, or B 2. If buy a or c, will not buy B c a B

15. Basic model of consumer utility buying single product a buying single product c buying bundling product B The common valuation for multiproduct The cost of buying multiproduct from consumer’s ideal choice The coefficient of price from bundling product B The price for multiproduct

16. Market Equilibrium under multiproductmonopoly

17. Market Equilibrium Na(1) Nc(1) Pa nap Pc nap xa xc nc(1) na(1) NB(1) Naα Ncα 0 1 ncα naα NBα

18. Diffusion model of market Equilibrium Nc(1) Na(1) Pa Pc nap nap xa xc nc(1) na(1) NB(1) Potential of consumers for single product i Imitative factor of single product Innovative factor of single product Potential of consumers for multiproduct 0 1 ncα naα NBα

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20. Simulation and Analysis Model1: Market Equilibrium under multiproduct monopoly Object：find the potential market Model2: diffusion Model of Market Equilibrium Object：find the timing point that the consumers will only willing purchase single product Model3: bimodal profit function model Object：find out the profit what the firm earn in the different timing of bundling

21. Model 1 Nc(1) Na(1) Pa Pc nap nap xa xc nc(1) na(1) NB(1) 小 小 大 大 大 0 1 ncα naα NBα

22. Model 2 Nc(1) Na(1) Pa Pc nap nap Ta Tc xa xc nc(1) na(1) NB(1) 0 1 ncα naα NBα

23. Profit of multiproduct The manufacture cost of single product i The management and marketing cost of single product i Cost coefficient of management and marketing

24. bimodal profit function model If TB≦Tc then profit function 1 Pra ×Ya1(T) + Prc × Yc1(T) + PrB × NBα × MA Pa Pc NBα Tc ncα Ta naα 0 0 If Tc ≦TB≦T athen profit function2 Pra × Ya1(T) + Prc × Yc1(T) + PrB× NBα × Mt－PrB×{Yc1(T) －Yc1(Tc)} Ta If Ta ≦TBthen profitfunction 3 Pra × Ya1(T) + Prc × Yc1(T) + PrB × NBα × MA－PrB×{Yc1(T) －Yc1(Tc)} －PrB×{Ya1(T) －Ya1(Ta)}

25. accumulated profit trend in the profit function 2(δ=1)

26. The future profit trend TB=8 TB=12

27. TB=16 TB=20

28. The ultimate profit α =0.9 δ =1

29. The ultimate profit on different α α=0.9 α=0.8

30. The ultimate profit on different δ δ =0.4 • If the cost of management and market in the bundling product B is low, then the optimal bundling time is the former critical time point. δ =0.8

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32. Contribution and achievement • We proposed a diffusion process of bundling product. With this process, the firm could find the optimal timing to bundle two products at their life cycle. • Two critical time points are found. If the firm miss the first time point, the better strategy would be waiting for the next time point.

33. Future research • Different critical time point of bundling • Considering other factor • Stock, market strategy, finance of company • Comparing the profit diffusion process of bundling product B and unbundling

34. Thanks for Attention