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Chinese foreign Policy Challenges and Strategies

Chinese foreign Policy Challenges and Strategies. XIE Tao Beijing Foreign Studies University. Rise of China. China has become a global actor, if not a global power. It is drawing unprecedented attention, some of which is certainly unwanted and unwarranted.

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Chinese foreign Policy Challenges and Strategies

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  1. Chinese foreign PolicyChallenges and Strategies XIE Tao Beijing Foreign Studies University

  2. Rise of China • China has become a global actor, if not a global power. It is drawing unprecedented attention, some of which is certainly unwanted and unwarranted. • What kind of foreign policy challenges does China face? • What strategies (or tactics) have been adopted or proposed to deal with these challenges?

  3. Major challenges (I)Border security • China’s global status has improved significantly, but its security environment has not. • China has arguably the world’s worst border security: surrounded by 14 countries on land, and adjacent to eight countries on the sea. • It has outstanding border disputes with two countries (India and Bhutan), and maritime disputes with each of its littoral neighbors, namely, DPRK, ROK, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia.

  4. China’s maritime disputes • China-Japan: over the Diaoyu Islands, certainly the most dangerous and has the potential to escalate into military conflicts. • China-Philippines: over the Spratly Islands. Repeated diplomatic confrontation. • China-Vietnam: over the Paracel Islands, not as volatile as those with Japan or Philippines. • China-Indonesia: the latter joined the chorus of maritime disputes with China in early March.

  5. China’s problematic land neighbors • DPRK: supposedly a Chinese ally and protégé, but increasingly unpredictable and ungrateful. Nuclear ambition threatens northeast China. • Myanmar: used to be a stronghold of Chinese influence in Southeast Asia; after 2011 bilateral relations have become strained. • India: strategic rivalry and border disputes. • Central Asia: on border with Xinjiang and a haven for separatists. • Russia: wary of growing Chinese influence in Central Asia and eastern Siberia.

  6. Major challenges (II)Relations with U.S. and EU • In addition to grave border security, China faces myriad challenges in dealing with the U.S. and the EU. • China-U.S.: Taiwan, trade, cyber security, human rights, Tibet, pivot to Asia, etc. • China-EU: trade, human rights, Tibet, arms embargo, etc.

  7. Dealing with maritime disputes • China-ASEAN relations were at their best in 1997-2009. With the rise of maritime tensions starting from 2009, China-ASEAN relations deteriorated significantly. • Xi Jinping proposed to build a 21st century maritime silk road during his visit to ASEAN last December, in an attempt to mend fences with ASEAN members.

  8. Coping with Russia • China and Russia appear to be forging a temporary strategic alliance (presumably against the U.S.), as illustrated by China’s stance on Syria and Crimea. • But they also seem to harbor deep-rooted suspicion of each other. • Thus China launched the Silk Road Economic Belt last year—dubbed China’s westward expansion—to increase its influence in Central Asia. • This strategy could decrease its energy reliance on Russia and Middle East, draw Central Asian republics closer to China, and induce better cooperation in fighting against separatism in Xinjiang.

  9. In the face of U.S. pivot to Asia • China is deeply alarmed by U.S. pivot to Asia, a move that is widely perceived as part of U.S. efforts to “contain” China. • Mending fences with ASEAN and building Silk Road Economic Belt in Central Asia could be viewed as a Chinese strategy to reduce strategic pressure in west Pacific. • China’s coercive diplomacy vis-à-vis Japan, Philippines, and Vietnam seem to have forced U.S. to be more cautious in Southeast Asia.

  10. China and EU • Our president visited Brussels in late March. From media reports in China and Europe, this is a landmark visit. • China needs EU as much as EU needs China, for markets, technology, and possibly a counterweight to U.S. • Driven largely by economics, China-EU relationship lacks clear strategic competition (unlike China-US relations) or shared goal. • China continues to bet on bilateral relations (Germany in particular) while engaging with the multilateral European Union.

  11. Long-term challenges • 1. As China goes global (particularly on the economic front) and as China becomes a more pluralistic society, more actors will have stakes in Chinese foreign policy, and more people will wan to voice their opinions about foreign policy issues. • China needs institutions that can aggregate and articulate diverse interests, as well as provide outlets for diverse opinions.

  12. Long-term challenges • 2. China has certainly become a global player, but it has not become a global power. It has global presence, but not global influence. In particular, there is a glaring gap between China’s hard power and soft power. • China needs to reevaluate its soft power strategies: what is uniquely China’s soft power and how to promote it? If there is nothing uniquely Chinese, then how build up its soft power?

  13. Long-term challenges • 3. the limits of peaceful development • Peaceful development has been the most important guideline for Chinese foreign policy since the 1990s. Now in light of maritime tensions in South China Sea and Eastern China Sea, is China still committed to such a guideline? • Rising nationalism at home, plus perceived provocations from abroad, could force Chinese leaders to be more assertive.

  14. Long-term challenges • 4. alliances • China has no formal security alliance (Pakistan being the only exception?), and it has no overseas military bases. China’s rise is a lonely one. • Even a superpower like the U.S. must have allies. So how to build up allies, with which countries?

  15. Long-term challenges • 5. non-interference • This has been a core principle ofChinese foreign policy since 1949, and there are good reasons for it. • China’s aid to Africa, with no conditions attached, is an illuminating example. • As its interests go global (e.g., growing Chinese diaspora), China may have to modify or abandon this principle.

  16. Long-term challenges • 6. hot economics, cold politics • China’s economic ties with many countries are booming (U.S., Japan, EU). • But its political relations with these countries are rather cool or cold. • Is there a way to improve strategic trust and cooperation on the political front? • Is it because of China’s political system?

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