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POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES IN TURKEY An Assessment of the Present Situation

POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES IN TURKEY An Assessment of the Present Situation Baha KUBAN-Eurosolar Turkey. AGRENER 2006 6-8 June 2006 Campinas Brazil. TURKISH ENERGY PANORAMA. 1984 – Public monopoly ended

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POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES IN TURKEY An Assessment of the Present Situation

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  1. POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES IN TURKEY An Assessment of the Present Situation Baha KUBAN-Eurosolar Turkey AGRENER 2006 6-8 June 2006 Campinas Brazil

  2. TURKISH ENERGY PANORAMA • 1984 – Public monopoly ended • 1993 – Public utility divided into three; production, distribution and sales • 1994 – Build,Operate,Transfer (BOT), Build, Operate(BO) laws enacted • 1996 – International arbitration in the energy sector • 2001 – Electricity Regulation Board (EPDK) 2005 numbers Installed power 38,902 MW Production 176 billion kWh (capacity 213 b kWh) Consumption 160 billion kWh

  3.  Energy consumption is comparatively low

  4. population growth rate estimates are relatively high • urbanization rates very high • forecasted GNP growth rates are relatively high  very high rate of increase of annual energy demand; ~8-9 %

  5. Distribution of consumed energy to primary resources Non-Hydro

  6. INCREASED DEPENDENCE ON NATURAL GAS First natural gas supply agreement, 1987 – Soviet Union 513 million m3 14.2 billion m3 in 13 years 27 times increase !

  7. Natural gas supply agreements and the • explosion of NGCC power plants • 100 % buy-back guarantee • Unit price guarantee per kWh • Public utility capacity utilization, 50 % in 2002, 30 % in 2003 • Another 6,000-10,000 MW licences given for 2003-2005 • %100 buy-back kWh price 6c/kWh and higher • (this compared to 2c/kWh public hydro, 3c/kWh public thermic • THUS; • 2 billion US$ transferred to private utilities in 2002, • 4.7 billion US$ transferred by the end of 2003 Dependence on foreign fossil fuel imports~ 15 billion US$/year

  8. RENEWABLES POTENTIAL LARGE HYDRO-ELECTRIC

  9. LARGE HYDRO Contribution to total Operating 30% Under Construction 41% Planned 67% In Europe, hydro-electric potential in Turkey 2nd best after Norway Theoretical potential Technically feasible Economically feasible 433,000 GWh/year 216,000 GWh/year 123,000 GWh/year

  10. SMALL HYDRO-ELECTRIC POTENTIAL . UNIDO definition, small Hydro: < 10MW . Contribution of small hydro to total today ~% 0.04 . Black Sea coast particularly suitable . Readily available small hydro potential: ~4000 MW . 18% of total MWs, 30% of hydro power today

  11. WIND Turkey is calculated to have the highest wind energy potential in Europe...

  12. Wind Power Density (watts per square meter) at 50 m Western Turkey Wind Resources

  13. Contribution to national electricity production is almost zero presently!

  14. BUT ! New Renewable Electricity Law (2005) Mainly supporting Wind and Hydro, Situation after Legislation, June 2006 Construction (Due to finish beginning of 2007) 1400 MW (38 projects) Approved 40 MW Applied 3700 MW (121 projects)

  15. PHOTOVOLTAIC POTENTIAL “ Photovoltaics in 2010 ”, EU 1996. Data from 1990 Rooftop area available for solar electricity in Turkey: 378 km2 (homes, offices, public buildings and factories). PV capacity (Wp)= Area (m2)x standard irradiance(W/m2)xEfficiency* PV electricity generation (MWh/year)=PV Capacity(MWp)xIrradiation(kWh/m2.year)xEfficiency** Efficiencies: Module* %12.5, System** (BOS) %70 Standard Irradiance: 1000 W/m2, Turkey 1700 kWh/m2.year RESULT : PV power 47.204 MWp PV electricity generation 56.173.035 MWs/year Total consumption(1990) 55.906.000 MWs/yıl Contribution % 100.5 TODAY, PV ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN TURKEY IS LIMITED TO OFF-GRID TELECOMS, FORESTRY, HIGHWAYS AND MILITARY APPLICATIONS, IN TOTAL ~1 MW.

  16. Solar Thermal • Avarage suntime 2700 h/year • Solar thermal potential ~90 million tpe • (today total consumption ~35 million tpe) • Solar collector market • >200 manufacturers • 25 % increase/year • 55 % installed in the Meditteranean region • 2001 sales 600.000 m2 • Total collector area > 5 million m2 (7 million?) • 2005 estimate (conservative) ~10 million m2

  17. Geothermal • With 1000 discovered fields, one of the best potentials for geothermal energy. 170 fields > 35o, several > 170o • Estimated to be ~31.500 MWt (5 million homes, • About 30% of total) • Present state: • Direct heating: 970 MWt, Electricity: 20 MWe (Denizli) • 2010 estimate: 3500 MWt, 500MWe • 2020 estimate: 8300 MWt, 1000 MWe

  18. BIO - FUELS Traditional Biomass ~ 1/3 of all domestic heating consumption December 2003 - Petroleum Market Law 2% Bio-fuel in diesel 144 bio-diesel firms production 1.5 million tons 3 billion US$ sector Bio-gas potential 2.8-3.9 billion m3 21.5 MW electricity from municipal waste plants being constructed

  19. Large potential for Energy Efficiency • ~ 30% of present consumption • Avarage Turkish building • consumes x3 energy compared to German bldg. Misplaced transportation policy ! dependence on road transport Losses in Transmission and Distribution ~ 20 % EU Avarege ~ 10 %

  20. 20 YEARS BALANCE SHEET OF POLICY IN THE ENERGY SECTOR • Expressed aims of energy sector privatization • and de-regulation imposed by the IMF-WB; • No alternative, due to empty public coffers indebted state •  Cheaper electricity •  Technological upgrading •  Break-up of public monopoly !

  21. Typologies of Industrial Innovation conservative innovation ; “...those innovations that improve and deepen the present system ” radical innovation ; “...those innovations that challenge the present system components, both institutional and technical ones, require a new set of technical, social and cultural reference points"

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