Westhampton Beach High School 6 th Science Symposium at the Westhampton Beach Performing Arts Center May 11, 2006 Climate Change, Katrina, and us ! (or: why do we need to care about disasters ?) Klaus Jacob <firstname.lastname@example.org>
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6th Science Symposium at the
Westhampton Beach Performing Arts Center
May 11, 2006
Climate Change, Katrina, and us !
(or: why do we need to care about disasters ?)
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
How, the heck, did I get involved with Disasters ?
Will Durant (1885-1981) wrote:
"Civilization exists by
subject to change
Source: Jim Hansen, NASA/GISS: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/intro/hansen_05/
Climate Change, Ocean Temperature & Hurricanes http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/intro/hansen_05/
Storm distribution with http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/intro/hansen_05/
Storm distribution with CO2-
rich, warmer atmosphere.
Above MSL Below MSL http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/intro/hansen_05/
Bathymetry (in meters)
Local Mean Sea Level Trend (in meters) http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/intro/hansen_05/
Grand Isle, Louisiana
The mean sea level trend is 9.85 millimeters/year (3.23 feet/century)
with a standard error of 0.35 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1947 to 1999.
Local Rate of Sea Level Rise
(includes delta subsidence):
~ 1 cm/y or ~ 1 m/century
In the Northern Hemisphere the “Right Arm” of the http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/intro/hansen_05/
Hurricane has Higher Windsand Higher Coastal Storm
Surges than the “Left Arm”.
Wind Speed at the “Right Arm”=
(Vortex Velocity+ Forward Speed of Storm System)
Wind Speed at the “Left Arm” =
( Vortex Velocity- Forward Speed of Storm System).
Coastal Storm Surge Height =
Low Atmospheric Pressure Sea Surface Bulge
± (Wind Shear Coastal “Pileup” and Wave Effects).
Hurricane Floyd, Sept. 1999 http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/intro/hansen_05/
“Worst Case Track” http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/intro/hansen_05/
to hit NYC
S-S Category 4 storms could have inundations up to 30 ft (10m) above mean sea level
NYC Storm Surge Inundation Map for “SLOSH” Model Worst-Case Hurricane Tracks, Color Coded By Saffir-Simpson Categories 1-4(Source: http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu/ )
for NYC 2000 years
0 2000 years
Hurricane Category: None. 2000 years
Hurricane Category: 1 2000 years
Hurricane Category: 2 2000 years
Hurricane Category: 3 2000 years
Hurricane Category: 4 2000 years
Costliest 2000 yearsAtlantic hurricanes, 1851-2004
Cost refers to total estimated property damage.
Rank Hurricane Year Cost (2004USD)
1 Andrew 1992 $43.672 billion
2 Fifi 1974 $20 billion (2005 USD)
3 Charley 2004 $15 billion
4 Ivan 2004 $14.2 billion
5 Hugo 1989 $12.25 billion
Katrina 2005 ~$75 Billion (est.)
26% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in the next 50 years.
Strapped insurers flee coastal areas Probability Project
4/26/2006 12:27 PM
By Marilyn Adams, USA TODAY
With the 2006 hurricane season starting in just five weeks, many home insurers from Texas to Florida to New York are canceling policies along the coast or refusing to sell new ones out of fear of another catastrophic storm.
In the widest insurance retreat from coastal property since Hurricane Andrew slammed Florida in 1992, insurers as far north as Long Island, N.Y., and Cape Cod, Mass., are shedding coastal homeowners policies to reduce their exposure.
Allstate Insurance says it won't write any new homeowners policies in New York City, Long Island or Westchester County. Although Long Island hasn't been struck by a major hurricane since 1938, "The probability exists for New York to be hit," says Trevino.
MetLife also is cutting back on new homeowners policies near the coast.
New York's legislature is considering a bill to create a permanent, state-run insurer of last resort to provide wind and fire insurance for coastal homes.
Thank You ! Probability Project