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Climate Change. RECCC Pédzi V.J. Girigori MSc Curaçao, June 8 th -9 th , 2011. Overview. What is Global Warming Observations (last 100 years) Climate Variability Expected Impacts . Observations. Observations. Change in: -Temperature -Sea level -Snow coverage. Curaçao.

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Climate Change

RECCC

Pédzi V.J. Girigori MSc

Curaçao, June 8th -9th , 2011


Overview

  • What is Global Warming

  • Observations (last 100 years)

  • Climate Variability

  • Expected Impacts


Observations


Observations

Change in:

-Temperature

-Sea level

-Snow coverage


Curaçao

Observations


Global Warming


Global Warming

  • Greenhouse effect first discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824,

  • Is the process in which the absorption of infrared radiation by an atmosphere warms a planet.

  • Without these greenhouse gases, the Earth's surface would be up to 30 °C cooler.


% : 1 part per hundred,

ppm: 1 par per million

Global Warming: Type of Gasses

200 years

280-380 ppm


Global Warming: Radiative Forcing


Global Warming


Global Warming: Source of GW


Climate Variability


Climate Variability

  • The mean indicates the expected value of a random variable

  • the variance is used as a measure of how far a set of numbers are spread out around the mean

A Dataset can be characterized by a mean and a variance

Why is the change in climate variability important??


Climate Variability: Temperature

Maximum (TNx) and minimum (TNn) of daily minimum Temperature

Maximum (TXx) and minimum (TXn) of daily maximum Temperature


Climate Variability: Temperature

The diurnal temperature range is the difference between the maximum and minimum temperature

Change in periods of consecutive lower temperatures (CSD) and periods of consecutive warmer temperatures (WSD)


Climate Variability: Precipitation

Consecutive wet (CWD) and dry days (CDD) show the change in the rainy and dry periods

Changes in total precipitation

Changes in extreme precipitation


Expected Impacts


Expected Impacts: Temperatures


Expected Impact: Sea Level Rise


Temperature Variability

An extremely likely (>95%) increase in temperature, warm spells and heat waves

An extremely likely (>95%) increase in warmer and more frequent hot days and nights

Increase in evaporation due to higher temperatures

Precipitation Variability

A more likely than not (>50%) increase of extreme rainfall events

A more likely than not (>50%) increase of the dry season

A very likely (>90%) increase in rainfall intensity

Expected Impacts: Curaçao


Expected Impacts


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