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Unidata Policy Committee National Weather Service Report. October 25, 2004 LeRoy Spayd Chief, Meteorological Services Division Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services NOAA’s National Weather Service. Outline. Teamwork NWS Products and Service National Digital Forecast Database.

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Unidata Policy Committee National Weather Service Report

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Unidata Policy CommitteeNational Weather Service Report

October 25, 2004

LeRoy Spayd

Chief, Meteorological Services Division

Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services

NOAA’s National Weather Service


Outline

  • Teamwork

  • NWS Products and Service

  • National Digital Forecast Database


Teamwork

Partnerships are critical to ensure the right message is sent and received!


751 Communities

47 States

Teamwork


Forecast & Detection

Dissemination

Warning

Response

StormReady Success Story Van Wert, Ohio F4 Tornado - 11/10/02


TeamworkNational Research Council’s Report

  • Today’s partnerships are sound and functioning well

  • Recommendations include:

    • Congressional Mandate – protect life and property

    • Public/Private Partnership Process

    • Data and Products in standardized format

    • New/Discontinue Products

    • Communicate Uncertainty


Seamless Suite of Products

Outlooks

Guidance

Threats Assessments

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Forecast

Uncertainty

Years

Seasons

Months

8 – 14 Days

Forecast Lead Time

6 – 10 Days

Days

Hours

Minutes

Protection of

Life & Property

SpaceOperations

Fire Weather

Agriculture

Reservoir

Control

Energy

State/Local

Planning

Environment

Flood Mitigation

& Navigation

Transportation

Hydropower

Recreation

Ecosystem

Health


Communicating Threats Severe Weather

Polygon Eliminates

False Alarm Area


Communicating ThreatsHurricanes


Communicating ThreatsAdvanced Hydrologic Prediction Service


Communicating Threats Urban Flooding - Gaston

August 30, 2004


Communicating ThreatsIndices

  • Today

    • Wind Chill Index

    • Heat Health Index

  • Tomorrow

    • Tornado F-scale Revision

    • Winter Storm Index?


  • Focuses NWS Meteorologist on Meteorology

  • Allows Private/Public Sector to Access Data Base for Their Own Application

  • Timeframe: FY 2003 - 2005

  • Beyond 2005, Working Toward a Complete Seamless 4-D Digital

    • Observations

    • Analyses

    • Forecasts

    • Uncertainty Information

    • Outlooks, Watches, Warnings

Seamless Suite of Products

National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

Gridded Forecast Database

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.


Summary of NDFD Grid Readiness

  • Operational status on December 1

    • Max Temperature

    • Min Temperature

    • PoP 12

  • Conditionally ready for operational status – Improvements are necessary before declaring these grids operational

    • Temperature

    • Dewpoint

    • Weather

  • Not ready for operational status

    • QPF

    • Snow amount

    • Sky cover

    • Waveheights

    • Wind direction and speed


Issue

Public Information Statement

(September 16, 2004)

On December 1, 2004, portions of the NDFD will become an official NWS product. Specifically, the NWS has determined that 3 of the initial 12 experimental elements will be declared official. These three official elements include:

  • Maximum temperature

  • Minimum temperature

  • Probability of precipitation PoP12

    This represents an initial operating capability IOC for NDFD. The NWS expects to continue to improve the reliability, accuracy, consistency, and timeliness of the grid elements after NDFD IOC. Until the NWS completes backup server upgrades on March 1, 2005, users may experience service delays on rare occasions.

    The nine remaining elements from the original set will retain their experimental status while they are improved and evaluated. Users will be given 30 days notice when an element moves from experimental to official status. The NWS will announce by December 15, 2004, which additional elements will be transitionedto official NWS products on January 15, 2005.


NDFD element review

  • Comparison to recommended product transition criteria

    • Spatial Consistency

    • Timeliness

    • Completeness

  • Assessment of NDFD verification scores

    • Forecast error

    • Forecast bias

  • Subjective look at grid quality

    • Appearance

    • Other issues


NDFD Error Scores


NDFD Bias Characteristics


Element Summary Review


Background Material

  • Border Consistency Maps

  • Timeliness Maps

  • Completeness Maps

  • NDFD Error Charts

  • NDFD Bias Charts

  • Example NDFD Images

    • Ones suitable for framing

    • Ones to hide in the attic


Criteria >= 90%

Border Consistency

Max Temp 97%

PoP12 97%

Snow Amt 99.82%

QPF 97%

Sky 97%

Min Temp 97%


Criteria > = 90%

Border Consistency

Temperature 95%

Wave Height 92%

Wind Direction 91%

Dewpoint 91%

Wind Speed 99.62%


Criteria >= 95% WFOs

90% of the time

Timeliness

MaxT 98%

PoP12 98%

Sky 95%

Snow Amt 97%

MinT 99%

QPF 92%


Criteria >= 95% WFOs

90% of the time

Timeliness

Temperature 92%

Wave Height 78%

Wind 94%

Dewpoint 90%

Weather 97%


Criteria >= 95% WFOs

95% of the time

Completeness

MaxT 97%

PoP12 97%

Snow Amt 99.82%

MinT 98%

QPF 97%

Sky 93%


Criteria >= 95% WFOs

95% of the time

Completeness

Temperature 97%

Wave Height85%

Wind 97%

Weather 97%

Dewpoint 96%


NDFD Error ChartsMax Temp


NDFD Error ChartsMin Temp


NDFD Error ChartsPoP12


NDFD Error ChartsTemperature


NDFD Error ChartsDewpoint


NDFD Error ChartsWind Speed


NDFD Bias ChartsTemperature


NDFD Bias ChartsDewpoint


NDFD Bias ChartsWind Speed


Example NDFD Images some good ones

  • Saturday morning in Northern Rockies

    • Maximum Temperature

    • PoP12

    • Sky Cover

    • Wx

    • Temperature

    • Dewpoint

    • QPF

    • Snow Amount


Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies


Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies


Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies


Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies


Example NDFD Images some not so good ones

  • Clouds by zone

  • Uncoordinated QPF

  • Daily battle with dewpoints

  • Uncoordinated Wave Height

  • Wind Speed during Ivan

  • Weather by zone

  • Misconfigured WFO grids

  • Missing Grids


Example NDFD image Clouds by zone

Congruent day 1 forecast

Less congruent day 4 forecast


Example NDFD imagesUncoordinated QPF

Inconsistent forecast

Same forecast issued 3 hours later


Example NDFD Images Daily battle with dewpoints

Dry in Davenport and Nashville

Humid in Davenport and Nashville


Example NDFD Images Uncoordinated wave height

Coordination glitches during big events


Example NDFD ImagesWind speed during Ivan


Example NDFD Image Weather coverage by zone

Impressive with minor exception in Michigan


Example NDFD Images Misconfigured WFO grids


NDFD Example Images Missing grids


Summary

  • First 3 Grid Elements official December 1

  • Monthly trends show gradual improvement

  • NWS working on improving methodology, developing better QA smarttools, sharing best practices


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