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London 2062- housing . © bere: architects. Pelsmakers Sofie. © bere: architects. 50 years from now,…. I should be . I should be . 87 years old. because . because . Most women in my family live in their 90 ’ s . 97 . But will I?. But will I?. Probably not,…. Because. Because

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slide1

London 2062- housing

© bere: architects

slide2

PelsmakersSofie

© bere: architects

slide5

I should be

87 years old

slide7

because

Most women in my family live in their 90’s

slide10

But will I?

Probably not,…

slide12

Because

by 2050

slide13

Because

by 2050

London will

slide17

Why?

  • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise
slide18

Why?

  • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise
  • UK failed to meet its 80% CO2 reduction by 2050
slide19

Why?

  • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise
  • UK failed to meet its 80% CO2 reduction by 2050
  • ≈75% of buildings which exist today will still exist in 2050; of which 26 million dwellings
slide20

Why?

  • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise
  • UK failed to meet its 80% CO2 reduction by 2050
  • ≈75% of buildings which exist today will still exist in 2050; of which 26 million dwellings
  • Lack of incentives means they both contribute to CO2 emissions and are ill-adapted to London’s changing climate
slide21

Why?

  • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise
  • UK failed to meet its 80% CO2 reduction by 2050
  • ≈75% of buildings which exist today will still exist in 2050; of which 26 million dwellings
  • Lack of incentives means they both contribute to CO2 emissions and are ill-adapted to London’s changing climate
  • Heat-related deaths; 2000 in summer 2003 in UK
slide23

How hot? (2080)

  • Summers to be 4.5ºC warmer
slide24

How hot? (2080)

© The Environmental Design Pocketbook

slide25

What else?

(2080)

Sea level rise: 50-90cm

slide26

What else?

(2080)

Sea level rise: 50-90cm

up to 26%decrease in summer rain

slide27

What else?

(2080)

Sea level rise: 50-90cm

up to 26%decrease in summer rain

Up to 32% increase in winter rain

slide29

impact?

1. Increased seasonal water shortages

slide30

impact?

1. Increased seasonal water shortages

2. Increased risk of flooding + localized flash floods

slide31

impact?

1. Increased seasonal water shortages

2. Increased risk of flooding + localized flash floods

3. Decreased winter fuel-poverty

slide32

impact?

1. Increased seasonal water shortages

2. Increased risk of flooding + localized flash floods

3. Decreased winter fuel-poverty

4. Increased summer ‘cooling-poverty’ and health related issues (particularly the elderly at risk)

slide35

avoidable?

But we have to future-proof today.

slide38

because

Although these conditions are new to London, we can borrow from other climates in the world (Mediterranean, Netherlands)

slide39

How?

By choosing housing interventions which both mitigate and adapt to climate change

slide40

How?

5 key interventions

slide41

1. insulate

Going to zero carbon

slide42

1. insulate

Insulation & increased airtightness reduce winter heat loss but also summer heat gains.

Going to zero carbon

slide43

1. insulate

Insulate existing housing stock to high standards

Going to zero carbon

slide44

1. insulate

Passivhaus/EnerPHit or similar

Going to zero carbon

slide45

Spot the Passivhaus?

© bere: architects

slide46

1. insulate

We need to think about external insulation (retains thermal mass, reduces thermal bridging & other risks)

Going to zero carbon

slide47

Going to zero carbon

© Anne Thorne Architects

slide48

Going to zero carbon

© Anne Thorne Architects

slide49

depth of insulation is substantial

Going to zero carbon

© Anne Thorne Architects

slide51

1. insulate

while increasing airtightness we need to allow for biodiversity habitats!

Going to zero carbon

slide52

biodiversity

…because striving for increased airtightness reduces opportunities for birds to nest & bats to roost in gaps & cracks of old buildings.

© Architecture for Change

slide53

biodiversity

Example of how it can be supported

slide54

biodiversity

© bere: architects

slide55

biodiversity

© Architecture for Change

slide57

2.greenery

Increase greenery, permeable surfaces & water storage – at micro and macro scale

slide58

2.greenery

  • This will:
  • increase biodiversity
slide59

2.greenery

  • This will:
  • increase biodiversity
  • reduce Urban Heat Island Effect & effects of hot summers
slide60

2.greenery

  • This will:
  • increase biodiversity
  • reduce Urban Heat Island Effect & effects of hot summers
  • reduce flood risk
slide65

measures

© Architecture for Change

slide67

3.reflection

Going to zero carbon

slide68

3.reflection

Going to zero carbon

Light coloured external surfaces at micro & macro scale

slide69

3.reflection

Going to zero carbon

Because it will:

slide70

3.reflection

Going to zero carbon

  • Because it will:
  • reflect sunlight back
slide71

3.reflection

Going to zero carbon

  • Because it will:
  • reflect sunlight back
  • reduce surface temperatures by 10-20ºC
slide72

3.reflection

Going to zero carbon

  • Because it will:
  • reflect sunlight back
  • reduce surface temperatures by 10-20ºC
  • keep buildings cooler
slide73

Going to zero carbon

© The Environmental Design Pocketbook

slide75

4. shading

Going to zero carbon

slide76

4. shading

external solar shading will become essential in London 2062:

Going to zero carbon

slide77

4. shading

external solar shading will become essential in London 2062:

replace outward opening windows with internal opening windows to allow for ventilation.

Going to zero carbon

slide81

5.airflow

Night cooling is particularly important to balance increasing summer temperatures

to zero carbon

© The Environmental Design Pocketbook

slide82

5. airflow

© The Environmental Design Pocketbook

slide83

It is not

‘zero carbon’

slide84

0CO2

Because London on the whole is of too high density to achieve this in the current definition of ‘zero carbon’

slide86

Approx. 100 dw/ha – low energy

Approx. 30 dw/ha – ‘zero carbon’

slide89

And,…

London boroughs who have foresight of mitigation & adaptation will be better & safer places to live.

slide90

Thank you

www.environmentaldesignpocketbook.com

www.architectureforchange.com

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