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London 2062- housing . © bere: architects. Pelsmakers Sofie. © bere: architects. 50 years from now,…. I should be . I should be . 87 years old. because . because . Most women in my family live in their 90 ’ s . 97 . But will I?. But will I?. Probably not,…. Because. Because

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London 2062- housing

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London 2062 housing

London 2062- housing

© bere: architects


London 2062 housing

PelsmakersSofie

© bere: architects


London 2062 housing

50 years from now,…


London 2062 housing

I should be


London 2062 housing

I should be

87 years old


London 2062 housing

because


London 2062 housing

because

Most women in my family live in their 90’s


London 2062 housing

97


London 2062 housing

But will I?


London 2062 housing

But will I?

Probably not,…


London 2062 housing

Because


London 2062 housing

Because

by 2050


London 2062 housing

Because

by 2050

London will


London 2062 housing

be too hot


London 2062 housing

this is fatal to many elderly


London 2062 housing

Why?


London 2062 housing

Why?

  • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise


London 2062 housing

Why?

  • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise

  • UK failed to meet its 80% CO2 reduction by 2050


London 2062 housing

Why?

  • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise

  • UK failed to meet its 80% CO2 reduction by 2050

  • ≈75% of buildings which exist today will still exist in 2050; of which 26 million dwellings


London 2062 housing

Why?

  • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise

  • UK failed to meet its 80% CO2 reduction by 2050

  • ≈75% of buildings which exist today will still exist in 2050; of which 26 million dwellings

  • Lack of incentives means they both contribute to CO2 emissions and are ill-adapted to London’s changing climate


London 2062 housing

Why?

  • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise

  • UK failed to meet its 80% CO2 reduction by 2050

  • ≈75% of buildings which exist today will still exist in 2050; of which 26 million dwellings

  • Lack of incentives means they both contribute to CO2 emissions and are ill-adapted to London’s changing climate

  • Heat-related deaths; 2000 in summer 2003 in UK


London 2062 housing

How hot?


London 2062 housing

How hot? (2080)

  • Summers to be 4.5ºC warmer


London 2062 housing

How hot? (2080)

© The Environmental Design Pocketbook


London 2062 housing

What else?

(2080)

Sea level rise: 50-90cm


London 2062 housing

What else?

(2080)

Sea level rise: 50-90cm

up to 26%decrease in summer rain


London 2062 housing

What else?

(2080)

Sea level rise: 50-90cm

up to 26%decrease in summer rain

Up to 32% increase in winter rain


London 2062 housing

impact?


London 2062 housing

impact?

1. Increased seasonal water shortages


London 2062 housing

impact?

1. Increased seasonal water shortages

2. Increased risk of flooding + localized flash floods


London 2062 housing

impact?

1. Increased seasonal water shortages

2. Increased risk of flooding + localized flash floods

3. Decreased winter fuel-poverty


London 2062 housing

impact?

1. Increased seasonal water shortages

2. Increased risk of flooding + localized flash floods

3. Decreased winter fuel-poverty

4. Increased summer ‘cooling-poverty’ and health related issues (particularly the elderly at risk)


London 2062 housing

avoidable?


London 2062 housing

avoidable?

Yes!


London 2062 housing

avoidable?

But we have to future-proof today.


London 2062 housing

Sounds simple?


London 2062 housing

It is!


London 2062 housing

because

Although these conditions are new to London, we can borrow from other climates in the world (Mediterranean, Netherlands)


London 2062 housing

How?

By choosing housing interventions which both mitigate and adapt to climate change


London 2062 housing

How?

5 key interventions


London 2062 housing

1. insulate

Going to zero carbon


London 2062 housing

1. insulate

Insulation & increased airtightness reduce winter heat loss but also summer heat gains.

Going to zero carbon


London 2062 housing

1. insulate

Insulate existing housing stock to high standards

Going to zero carbon


London 2062 housing

1. insulate

Passivhaus/EnerPHit or similar

Going to zero carbon


London 2062 housing

Spot the Passivhaus?

© bere: architects


London 2062 housing

1. insulate

We need to think about external insulation (retains thermal mass, reduces thermal bridging & other risks)

Going to zero carbon


London 2062 housing

Going to zero carbon

© Anne Thorne Architects


London 2062 housing

Going to zero carbon

© Anne Thorne Architects


London 2062 housing

depth of insulation is substantial

Going to zero carbon

© Anne Thorne Architects


London 2062 housing

© Anne Thorne Architects


London 2062 housing

1. insulate

while increasing airtightness we need to allow for biodiversity habitats!

Going to zero carbon


London 2062 housing

biodiversity

…because striving for increased airtightness reduces opportunities for birds to nest & bats to roost in gaps & cracks of old buildings.

© Architecture for Change


London 2062 housing

biodiversity

Example of how it can be supported


London 2062 housing

biodiversity

© bere: architects


London 2062 housing

biodiversity

© Architecture for Change


London 2062 housing

2.greenery


London 2062 housing

2.greenery

Increase greenery, permeable surfaces & water storage – at micro and macro scale


London 2062 housing

2.greenery

  • This will:

  • increase biodiversity


London 2062 housing

2.greenery

  • This will:

  • increase biodiversity

  • reduce Urban Heat Island Effect & effects of hot summers


London 2062 housing

2.greenery

  • This will:

  • increase biodiversity

  • reduce Urban Heat Island Effect & effects of hot summers

  • reduce flood risk


London 2062 housing

© The Environmental Design Pocketbook

Going to zero carbon


London 2062 housing

© The Environmental Design Pocketbook


London 2062 housing

© Architecture for Change


London 2062 housing

measures

© Architecture for Change


London 2062 housing

© bere: architects


London 2062 housing

3.reflection

Going to zero carbon


London 2062 housing

3.reflection

Going to zero carbon

Light coloured external surfaces at micro & macro scale


London 2062 housing

3.reflection

Going to zero carbon

Because it will:


London 2062 housing

3.reflection

Going to zero carbon

  • Because it will:

  • reflect sunlight back


London 2062 housing

3.reflection

Going to zero carbon

  • Because it will:

  • reflect sunlight back

  • reduce surface temperatures by 10-20ºC


London 2062 housing

3.reflection

Going to zero carbon

  • Because it will:

  • reflect sunlight back

  • reduce surface temperatures by 10-20ºC

  • keep buildings cooler


London 2062 housing

Going to zero carbon

© The Environmental Design Pocketbook


London 2062 housing

Light coloured surfaces, Avignon


London 2062 housing

4. shading

Going to zero carbon


London 2062 housing

4. shading

external solar shading will become essential in London 2062:

Going to zero carbon


London 2062 housing

4. shading

external solar shading will become essential in London 2062:

replace outward opening windows with internal opening windows to allow for ventilation.

Going to zero carbon


London 2062 housing

4. marseille


London 2062 housing

Freiburg


London 2062 housing

5.airflow


London 2062 housing

5.airflow

Night cooling is particularly important to balance increasing summer temperatures

to zero carbon

© The Environmental Design Pocketbook


London 2062 housing

5. airflow

© The Environmental Design Pocketbook


London 2062 housing

It is not

‘zero carbon’


London 2062 housing

0CO2

Because London on the whole is of too high density to achieve this in the current definition of ‘zero carbon’


London 2062 housing

© The Environmental Design Pocketbook


London 2062 housing

Approx. 100 dw/ha – low energy

Approx. 30 dw/ha – ‘zero carbon’


London 2062 housing

Energy efficiency


London 2062 housing

= first renewable


London 2062 housing

And,…

London boroughs who have foresight of mitigation & adaptation will be better & safer places to live.


London 2062 housing

Thank you

www.environmentaldesignpocketbook.com

www.architectureforchange.com


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