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London 2062- housing . © bere: architects. Pelsmakers Sofie. © bere: architects. 50 years from now,…. I should be . I should be . 87 years old. because . because . Most women in my family live in their 90 ’ s . 97 . But will I?. But will I?. Probably not,…. Because. Because

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London 2062- housing

© bere: architects


PelsmakersSofie

© bere: architects


50 years from now,…


I should be


I should be

87 years old


because


because

Most women in my family live in their 90’s


97


But will I?


But will I?

Probably not,…


Because


Because

by 2050


Because

by 2050

London will


be too hot


this is fatal to many elderly


Why?


Why?

  • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise


Why?

  • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise

  • UK failed to meet its 80% CO2 reduction by 2050


Why?

  • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise

  • UK failed to meet its 80% CO2 reduction by 2050

  • ≈75% of buildings which exist today will still exist in 2050; of which 26 million dwellings


Why?

  • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise

  • UK failed to meet its 80% CO2 reduction by 2050

  • ≈75% of buildings which exist today will still exist in 2050; of which 26 million dwellings

  • Lack of incentives means they both contribute to CO2 emissions and are ill-adapted to London’s changing climate


Why?

  • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise

  • UK failed to meet its 80% CO2 reduction by 2050

  • ≈75% of buildings which exist today will still exist in 2050; of which 26 million dwellings

  • Lack of incentives means they both contribute to CO2 emissions and are ill-adapted to London’s changing climate

  • Heat-related deaths; 2000 in summer 2003 in UK


How hot?


How hot? (2080)

  • Summers to be 4.5ºC warmer


How hot? (2080)

© The Environmental Design Pocketbook


What else?

(2080)

Sea level rise: 50-90cm


What else?

(2080)

Sea level rise: 50-90cm

up to 26%decrease in summer rain


What else?

(2080)

Sea level rise: 50-90cm

up to 26%decrease in summer rain

Up to 32% increase in winter rain


impact?


impact?

1. Increased seasonal water shortages


impact?

1. Increased seasonal water shortages

2. Increased risk of flooding + localized flash floods


impact?

1. Increased seasonal water shortages

2. Increased risk of flooding + localized flash floods

3. Decreased winter fuel-poverty


impact?

1. Increased seasonal water shortages

2. Increased risk of flooding + localized flash floods

3. Decreased winter fuel-poverty

4. Increased summer ‘cooling-poverty’ and health related issues (particularly the elderly at risk)


avoidable?


avoidable?

Yes!


avoidable?

But we have to future-proof today.


Sounds simple?


It is!


because

Although these conditions are new to London, we can borrow from other climates in the world (Mediterranean, Netherlands)


How?

By choosing housing interventions which both mitigate and adapt to climate change


How?

5 key interventions


1. insulate

Going to zero carbon


1. insulate

Insulation & increased airtightness reduce winter heat loss but also summer heat gains.

Going to zero carbon


1. insulate

Insulate existing housing stock to high standards

Going to zero carbon


1. insulate

Passivhaus/EnerPHit or similar

Going to zero carbon


Spot the Passivhaus?

© bere: architects


1. insulate

We need to think about external insulation (retains thermal mass, reduces thermal bridging & other risks)

Going to zero carbon


Going to zero carbon

© Anne Thorne Architects


Going to zero carbon

© Anne Thorne Architects


depth of insulation is substantial

Going to zero carbon

© Anne Thorne Architects


© Anne Thorne Architects


1. insulate

while increasing airtightness we need to allow for biodiversity habitats!

Going to zero carbon


biodiversity

…because striving for increased airtightness reduces opportunities for birds to nest & bats to roost in gaps & cracks of old buildings.

© Architecture for Change


biodiversity

Example of how it can be supported


biodiversity

© bere: architects


biodiversity

© Architecture for Change


2.greenery


2.greenery

Increase greenery, permeable surfaces & water storage – at micro and macro scale


2.greenery

  • This will:

  • increase biodiversity


2.greenery

  • This will:

  • increase biodiversity

  • reduce Urban Heat Island Effect & effects of hot summers


2.greenery

  • This will:

  • increase biodiversity

  • reduce Urban Heat Island Effect & effects of hot summers

  • reduce flood risk


© The Environmental Design Pocketbook

Going to zero carbon


© The Environmental Design Pocketbook


© Architecture for Change


measures

© Architecture for Change


© bere: architects


3.reflection

Going to zero carbon


3.reflection

Going to zero carbon

Light coloured external surfaces at micro & macro scale


3.reflection

Going to zero carbon

Because it will:


3.reflection

Going to zero carbon

  • Because it will:

  • reflect sunlight back


3.reflection

Going to zero carbon

  • Because it will:

  • reflect sunlight back

  • reduce surface temperatures by 10-20ºC


3.reflection

Going to zero carbon

  • Because it will:

  • reflect sunlight back

  • reduce surface temperatures by 10-20ºC

  • keep buildings cooler


Going to zero carbon

© The Environmental Design Pocketbook


Light coloured surfaces, Avignon


4. shading

Going to zero carbon


4. shading

external solar shading will become essential in London 2062:

Going to zero carbon


4. shading

external solar shading will become essential in London 2062:

replace outward opening windows with internal opening windows to allow for ventilation.

Going to zero carbon


4. marseille


Freiburg


5.airflow


5.airflow

Night cooling is particularly important to balance increasing summer temperatures

to zero carbon

© The Environmental Design Pocketbook


5. airflow

© The Environmental Design Pocketbook


It is not

‘zero carbon’


0CO2

Because London on the whole is of too high density to achieve this in the current definition of ‘zero carbon’


© The Environmental Design Pocketbook


Approx. 100 dw/ha – low energy

Approx. 30 dw/ha – ‘zero carbon’


Energy efficiency


= first renewable


And,…

London boroughs who have foresight of mitigation & adaptation will be better & safer places to live.


Thank you

www.environmentaldesignpocketbook.com

www.architectureforchange.com


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