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This report provides an overview of recent rainfall patterns, current conditions, and monsoon prediction for the Asian-Australian region. It highlights deficits in rainfall over certain areas, while other regions have received above normal rainfall. The report also discusses the onset of the Indian summer southwest monsoon and predicts above normal rainfall for southern India in the coming weeks. Overall, it provides insightful information on the evolution and status of the Asian-Australian monsoon system.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 16, 2016 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing minor deficits across southern India, and major deficits over large parts of Australia and southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia, the Philippines and eastern Papua New Guinea. However, northeastern India, coastal southeastern China and many parts of Indonesia received above normal rainfall.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was deficient over Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines islands, central eastern Australia. However, northeast India, southeastern China, and parts of Indonesia had received more rainfall.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, rainfall was generally deficient over east Asian countries Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, different parts of Indonesian islands. The India Met Dept (IMD) has announced the Indian summer southwest monsoon onset over Kerala on the 7th of June, about a week later than normal.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing minor deficits across southern India, and major deficits over large parts of Australia and southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia, the Philippines and eastern Papua New Guinea. However, northeastern India, coastal southeastern China and many parts of Indonesia received above normal rainfall. For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was deficient over Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines islands, central eastern Australia. However, northeast India, southeastern China, and parts of Indonesia had received more rainfall. In this past week, rainfall was generally deficient over east Asian countries Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, different parts of Indonesian islands. The India Met Dept (IMD) has announced the Indian summer southwest monsoon onset over Kerala on the 7th of June, about a week later than normal. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal rainfall much over southern India at least in the first week. Whether this is the monsoon onset or not, is not clear, since it is well ahead of schedule.
