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Trial Slides . Michael Podgursky Department of Economics University of Missouri – Columbia. Analysis of Student Level 2006 MAP data. Inequality of student achievement. The vast majority of inequality in student achievement as measured by MAP is within rather than between school districts.

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### Trial Slides

Michael Podgursky

Department of Economics

University of Missouri – Columbia

• The vast majority of inequality in student achievement as measured by MAP is within rather than between school districts.

• If all differences in average student achievement between Missouri school districts were eliminated, 85-90 percent of the inequality of student achievement would remain.

### Student Achievement InequalityTotal Variation in State MAP Achievement = W + B

W= variation within districts

B= differences in average scores between districts

• Frequency distributions of student test scores within rather than between schools

• Plaintiff and non-plaintiff districts

• High and low spending districts

• Knowing whether the student attended a high or low spending district tells us almost nothing about his test score

Distribution of 2006 8 within rather than between schoolsth Grade Math MAP Scores in Plaintiff

And Non-Plaintiff Districts

Distribution of 2006 8 within rather than between schoolsth Grade Communication Arts MAP Scores

in Plaintiff And Non-Plaintiff Districts

Distribution of 2006 8 within rather than between schoolsth Grade Math MAP Scores in Top 20

And Bottom 20 Percent of Districts by Current Spending per Student

Distribution of 2006 8 within rather than between schoolsth Grade Communication Arts MAP Scores in Top 20

And Bottom 20 Percent of Districts by Current Spending per Student

and Current Spending Per Student

African-American Students Who Are FRL-Eligible

2006 Grade 8 Student Com. Arts MAP Scores and Current Spending Per Student:

African-American Students Who Are FRL-Eligible

White Students Who Are FRL-Eligible

2006 Grade 8 Student Com. Arts MAP Scores and Current Spending Per Student:

White Students Who Are FRL-Eligible

District Average Scores and Spending Per Student:Per Student Spending

Sample Selection Spending Per Student:

• 2006 MAP Scores by district and grade

• Grades 3-8, 11 Communication Arts

• Sample restricted to districts/grades with at least 10 test-takers in 2006

• Current spending per student in 2006

2006 Grade 8 Communication Arts MAP Index Score and Per Pupil Current Spending

(p = plaintiff district)

Multivariate Regression Models Spending

• A(t) = b0 + b1 S(t)

• A(t) = b0 + b1 S(t) + b2 %FRL(t)

• A(t) = b0 + b1 S(t) + b2 %FRL(t) + b3 A(t-k)

• A(t) = b0 + b1 S(t) + b2 %FRL(t) + b3 A(t-k)

+ b4 %MIN(t)

A(t), A(t-k) = MAP achievement in the district in year t, t-k

S(t) = Current spending per student in the district in year t in

thousands of dollars

FRL(t) = Percent of district students FRL-eligible in year t

MIN(t) = Percent of district students minority

(unweighted OLS estimates)

A(g8, 2006) = b0 + b1 S(2006) + b2 %FRL(2006)

+ b3 A(g3, 2001)

Communication Arts

2006

Communication Arts,

(same cohort of students,

earliest year MAP available)

2006 Grade 8 and High School

2. %FRL only

% FRL only

1. No controls

No controls

• Of four pairs of value-added estimates of the marginal effect of spending only one pair is statistically significant.

• In all cases, the point estimates of the marginal effects are small, and sometimes negative.

• All point estimates were less than one percentage point gain in %proficient or advanced per \$1000 of additional spending

• Roughly 60 percent of students scored less than proficient in 2006

### Predictive Validity of High School MAP Scores effect of spending only one pair is statistically significant.

• What does “proficient” mean? effect of spending only one pair is statistically significant.

• Variable and subjective measure

• Early and current MAP standards differ

• High school math MAP has challenging questions

• Many students who score less than proficient on HS MAP succeed as freshman in Missouri colleges.

How MAP Performance-Level Cut Scores Were Set effect of spending only one pair is statistically significant.(early MAP)

• Expert Panels (~40 members per panel)

• Educators, educated lay public, school board members

• “Bookmark” method

• Math (1997)

• Communication Arts (1998)

(Early MAP) effect of spending only one pair is statistically significant.

• Proficient:

• Students communicate mathematical processes

• use formulas to solve problems

• recognize reasonable answers in the context of the problem

• demonstrate use of approximations and estimations

• apply understanding of perimeter, area, volume, angle measure, capacity, weight, and mass

• from given assumptions, deduce properties of and relationships between figures

• solve real-life problems using scale drawings, similarity, congruence relationships, and transformations (reflections, translations, and rotation)

• interpret and summarize data from tables and graphs

• determine simple and conditional probabilities to make predictions

• apply appropriate statistical measures to make a decision in problem-solving situation

• represent and/or solve real-life problems using mathematical expressions, equations, or inequalities

• apply basic algebraic procedures to solve a system of equation

• extend understanding and apply appropriate properties of real numbers and number theory concepts to solve real-life problems

• apply recursion principle to solve application problems

• solve application problems using networks and counting techniques

• use tree and Venn diagrams to analyze and interpret data

4 = proficient effect of spending only one pair is statistically significant.

4 = proficient effect of spending only one pair is statistically significant.

M. Ehlert and M. Podgursky. (2004) Table 6, p. 22. effect of spending only one pair is statistically significant.

MO Public HE effect of spending only one pair is statistically significant.

Institutions

MU

Proficient

M. Ehlert and M. Podgursky. (2004) Fig. 6, p. 33.

MU effect of spending only one pair is statistically significant.

Proficient

M. Ehlert and M. Podgursky. (2004) Fig. 5, p. 33.

2006 MAP Achievement Level Descriptors effect of spending only one pair is statistically significant.

Source: http://dese.mo.gov/divimprove/assess/Released_Items/current/ma2006/10maRIs06MO.pdf

(516 High Schools with N http://dese.mo.gov/divimprove/assess/Released_Items/current/ma2006/10maRIs06MO.pdf≥ 10 Test-takers)

• South Nodaway High

• Lutie High

• Metro High

• North Harrison High

• Bunceton High

• Stanberry High

• Hale High

• Southland High

• Leopold High

### Measures of Horizontal and Vertical Equity http://dese.mo.gov/divimprove/assess/Released_Items/current/ma2006/10maRIs06MO.pdf

Vertical Equity http://dese.mo.gov/divimprove/assess/Released_Items/current/ma2006/10maRIs06MO.pdf

Which system is “fairest?”

A

B

Horizontalequity

There is a Tradeoff Between Horizontal and Vertical Equity

All spending is calibrated to student need

Identical spending per student

Source: Podgursky and Springer (2006, Figure 7) http://dese.mo.gov/divimprove/assess/Released_Items/current/ma2006/10maRIs06MO.pdf

Source: Podgursky and Springer (2006, Figure 8) http://dese.mo.gov/divimprove/assess/Released_Items/current/ma2006/10maRIs06MO.pdf

Missouri and Surrounding States: 1990-2000

### The Adequacy of Missouri Teacher Pay Per Student:

Summary of Findings adequate to staff schools with qualified teachers?

• Inflation-adjusted spending per student grew faster in Missouri than the US over the last fifteen years.

• Missouri school districts choose to spend part of this increase in lowering student teacher ratios rather than raising relative teacher pay. Missouri student-teacher ratios are low compared to national averages and to most neighboring states.

• National and state data show that teacher labor markets are local and regional, not national

• Data on relative teacher pay within Missouri metropolitan areas and between Missouri and neighboring states suggest that teacher pay is competitive.

• Labor market data suggest both plaintiff and non-plaintiff Missouri districts fill the vast majority of their vacancies with appropriately certified teachers. Applicant pools seem adequate in most teaching fields.

• On net, teachers are not leaving MO for neighboring states. In fact, the reverse is true.

Growth in Real Expenditure Per Student: Missouri than the US over the last 15 years

MO and US 1989-90 to 2004-05

15 years

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Expenditures deflated by Jan. CPI and express in Jan 2006 dollars

Growth in Real Expenditure Per Student: Missouri than the US over the last 15 years

MO and US 1999-00 to 2004-05

Five years

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Expenditures deflated by Jan. CPI and express in Jan 2006 dollars

The Trade-off Between Staffing and Teacher Pay Missouri than the US over the last 15 years

• Over the last 20 years Missouri public school districts have “purchased” low student-teacher ratios

Falling Student-Teacher Ratios Missouri than the US over the last 15 yearsU.S. and Missouri, 1987-2004

Ratio of Students to School Staff: Teacher RatioMissouri Public Schools 2002-2003

National Education Teacher Ratio

Association.

Rankings and Estimates.

(2004)

AFT Survey Teacher Ratio

and Analysis of

Teacher Salary

Trends 2002

• Relative pay comparisons should be local and regional as well

• Ballou and Podgursky (1997)

• Boyd, Donald, Hamilton Lankford, Susanna Loeb, James Wyckoff. (2003).

• DESE (2001)

Establishment Data on Relative Teacher Pay Teacher Ratio

• U.S. Department of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics. National Compensation Survey (NCS)

• NCS is the flagship employer survey on relative pay and benefits

• Available for major metropolitan areas

• St. Louis

• Kansas City

• Springfield

and Professional Workers: Kansas City, MO-KS

and Professional Workers: St. Louis, MO-IL

and Professional Workers: Springfield, MO

and U.S. Average, 2006

and U.S. Average, 2006

and U.S. Average, 2006

• 2003-04 Schools and Staffing Surveys

• Stratified random sample of roughly 43,000 public school teachers (NCES)

• Sample: full time teachers in MO and eight surrounding states

• Dependent variable

• Base pay (school year)

• Base pay + all supplements (school year)

Controlling for teacher experience and rural or urban residence, is the pay of Missouri teachers higher of lower than surrounding states?

• BP = b0 + b1 X + b2 MO

• TP = b0 + b1 X + b2 MO

• ln (BP) = b0 + b1 X + b2 MO

• ln (BP) = b0 + b1 X + b2 MO

BP = base pay, TP = total pay,

X = yrs FT experience, education, metro, rural

MO = 1 if MO teacher, 0 otherwise

Findings residence, is the pay of Missouri teachers higher of lower than surrounding states?

• After controlling for teacher experience, education, and geographic locale there is no significant difference in pay between Missouri teachers and teachers in neighboring states.

Estimates of b2 residence, is the pay of Missouri teachers higher of lower than surrounding states?

Labor Market Indicators residence, is the pay of Missouri teachers higher of lower than surrounding states?

• Certification rates

• Qualified applicants per vacancy in selected fields

• Net migration of teachers in or out of MO

Percent of Teachers With Regular Certification: 2006 residence, is the pay of Missouri teachers higher of lower than surrounding states?

By Teaching Field: Missouri Public Schools, 2005

Missouri Public Elementary Schools, 2006

(n=1250 schools)

Section 3(b). In event the public school fund provided and set apart by law

for the support of free public schools, shall be insufficient to sustain free

schools at least eight months in every year in each school district of the state,

the general assembly may provide for such deficiency; but in no case shall

there be set apart less than twenty-five percent of the state revenue, exclusive

of interest and sinking fund, to be applied annually to the support of the free

public schools.