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John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP

So. California Prosperity. John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP. U.S. Jobs Still Setting Records. 17.9%. Add Potential Workers: Given Up Or Part Time. 10.1%. 6.9%. 3.6%. Inflation: NOT MUCH!. 3.3%. 2.0%. Interest Rates:.

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John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP

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  1. So. California Prosperity . . . John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP

  2. U.S. Jobs Still Setting Records

  3. 17.9% Add Potential Workers: Given Up Or Part Time 10.1% 6.9% 3.6%

  4. Inflation: NOT MUCH! 3.3% 2.0%

  5. Interest Rates: A Short Term Rate Decrease? 4.12% 2.50%

  6. Yield Curve: Potential Recession Predictor Recession: 2020 Likelihood An Issue 2 Year to 10 Year 0.22%

  7. TARIFF MAN?

  8. California Job Gains/Losses

  9. Southern California

  10. Four Southern County Economy Gaining Strength! 2011-2018 Add +1,212,300 Jobs 8.3% Above 2007 Level 2008-2010 Lost -625,500 Jobs

  11. Job Quality: Split

  12. Unemployment Rates March 2019

  13. Gold Mine Theory Secondary Tier Primary Tier

  14. Industrial Market

  15. Logistics

  16. E-Commerce 14.5%

  17. Port Container VolumesRecord Levels

  18. Logistics Powerful Job Growth • 2011-2018 • 13.2% of New Jobs

  19. Manufacturing

  20. U.S./CA Manufacturing Job Growth

  21. CA Electrical Cost +88.0% +127.8%

  22. Marijuana?

  23. Manufacturing Jobs • 2011-2018 • -0.9% of Job Growth

  24. Industrial Construction

  25. Construction Locations

  26. Net Industrial Absorption 21.9 million

  27. Industrial Rates & Vacancies Lease Rates Per Square Foot Per Month, March-2019 Central Valley $0.46 6.0% Inland Empire $0.58 3.6% Ventura $0.87 1.5% Los Angeles $0.88 1.4% Orange $0.92 2.4% San Diego $0.98 4.2% Source: CB Richard Ellis

  28. Residential Market

  29. New Home Sales Volumes -35.2% -35.2% -34.1% -29.8% -47.8%

  30. Existing Home Sales Volumes -14.0% -12.9% -9.4% -5.3% -18.0% -16.9%

  31. Residential Prices

  32. Housing Unaffordability

  33. Office Market

  34. BA or Higher, 2017

  35. Professionals & Mgmt., Higher Ed., Utilities, Information & Government 2011-2018 13.5% of Growth

  36. Office Asking Lease Rates

  37. Office Vacancy Rates

  38. Net Office Space Absorption, 2018 ytd

  39. Office Construction

  40. Construction Jobs • 2011-2018 • 10.3% of Job Growth

  41. Health Care

  42. ACA Impact

  43. Health Care Jobs: Continuous Growth • 2011-2018 • 12.0% of Job Growth

  44. Population Serving Sectors E-commerce death High End Consumers Still Doing Well 3rd Strongest Inland Sector

  45. Retail Jobs: An Issue • 2011-2018 • 15.5% of Job Growth • 2011-2018 • 6.1% of Job Growth

  46. Retail Job Growth: E-commerce in Action

  47. Net Retail Space Absorption

  48. Retail Vacancies

  49. Retail Space Under Construction

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