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Effects of the Doubling of Carbon Dioxide

Effects of the Doubling of Carbon Dioxide. Effects of the Doubling of CO 2. Doubling of CO 2 projected by end of century, causing approximately a 5° F increase in average temperature (most rapid change in over 10,000 years) ~1.5 foot maximum sea level rise

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Effects of the Doubling of Carbon Dioxide

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  1. Effects of the Doubling of Carbon Dioxide www.assignmentpoint.com

  2. Effects of the Doubling of CO2 • Doubling of CO2 projected by end of century, causing approximately a 5° F increase in average temperature (most rapid change in over 10,000 years) • ~1.5 foot maximum sea level rise • More storms and fiercer ones as illustrated by Atlantic hurricanes in 2005 with 10° hotter Caribbean sea temperatures • Loss of coral reefs • Increase in tropical diseases since no winter coolness to kill insects • 25% decline in species that cannot shift range • Warming expected to be greater over land • Hot areas expect greater evaporation from hotter winds causing drought • In the past, half of produced carbon has gone into storage as in the oceans. • Heating of the surface ocean layer could stop ocean mixing and absorption into lower layers, thus shutting off carbon absorption. www.assignmentpoint.com

  3. Global Warming Effects • Global Warming is an average measure • Local warming or climate fluctuations can be very significant • Arctic is 5° warmer • Ice cap is ½ the thickness of 30 years ago • Partly due to natural cycle, partly man caused global warming • Antarctic is 5° warmer • Ice shelves over the sea are melting and breaking off and may allow the 10,000 foot thick ice sheet over Antarctica to slide off the continent faster • This would cause a sea level rise • Rainfall is hard to predict. It could be increased or decreased. • Drought can partly be caused by increased evaporation at the higher temperature. www.assignmentpoint.com

  4. Global Warming Predictions for 2100 for business as usual. The average increase is 5°F. Since we don’t live over the oceans, warming will be larger. www.assignmentpoint.com

  5. Worldwide Glacial Melting, causing 2/3 of sea level rise of an inch a decade. www.assignmentpoint.com

  6. Global Warming effects in California • Summer temperatures rise by 4-8° F by 2100 for low emission scenario: 8-15° F for higher emissions. • Heat waves will be more common, more intense, and last longer. • Spring snowpack in the Sierra could decline by 70-90%, as winters will be warmer. • Agriculture, including wine and dairy, could be affected by water shortages and higher temperatures. • More forest fires. • Tree rings show that in eras of global warming, megadroughts of decades hit the southwest US. www.assignmentpoint.com

  7. CO2 Effects to Increase Over Centuries www.assignmentpoint.com

  8. Hasn’t yet added in Hurricane Katrina in 2005 www.assignmentpoint.com

  9. Depending on high or low emissions model, most of permafrost in Canada, Alaska, and Russia melt by 2050 or 2080. Permafrost melting by 2050 or 2080 www.assignmentpoint.com

  10. Worldwide increases in the average number of frost-free days by 2080 www.assignmentpoint.com

  11. Sea level rise has been 2 mm/yr for 50 years, but 3 mm/yr for the last decade www.assignmentpoint.com

  12. Florida with a 1 meter sea level rise or storm surge www.assignmentpoint.com

  13. Nile and Sea Level Rise • At 0.5 m, 3.8 million population displaced (intermediate blue). • At 1 m, 6.1 million population displaced (light blue). • The protective 1-10 km sand belt is eroding due to the Aswan dam. www.assignmentpoint.com

  14. Ganges River delta and 1m sea level rise in Bangladesh. 13 million displaced and 16% of rice production lost. • Similar 1 m sea level rise in China would displace 72 million people. www.assignmentpoint.com

  15. Increase in Droughts (red) from 1948 to 2002.The fraction of global land experiencing very dry conditions (-3) rose from about 10-15% in the early 1970s to about 30% by 2002. Almost half of that change is due to rising temperatures rather than decreases in rainfall or snowfall. www.assignmentpoint.com

  16. IPCC 2007 Summary Graphs www.assignmentpoint.com

  17. Historical Changes in Greenhouse Gases over 10,000 years • CO2 • Methane • NO2 www.assignmentpoint.com

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  20. Blue shaded bands show the range from climate models using only the natural forcings due to solar activity and volcanoes. Red shaded bands show the range from climate models using both natural andanthropogenic forcings. www.assignmentpoint.com

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  23. Global Surface Warming for This Century www.assignmentpoint.com

  24. Economic Climate Models, Roughly in Order of Temperature Increases, High to Low • A2 Growing population, regional inequities • A1 Peaking then declining population, world equity, high tech growth • A1FI Fossil fuel intensive • A1B Balance of sources • A1T Non-fossil fuel sources • B2 Increasing population, regional inequities, lower population growth than A2 and tech development than A1 • B1 Peaking then declining population, world equity, non-material economy, clean solutions www.assignmentpoint.com

  25. U.S. Carbon emission sources www.assignmentpoint.com

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