Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand
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Strategic Framework for Economic and Social Restructuring in Thailand. Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) 2 8 April 2005. Kampanat Pensupar, Ph.D. Roles and Responsibilities of NESDB. Strategic Planning Agency Socio-Economic Policies Advisory

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Strategic Framework for Economic and Social Restructuring in Thailand

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Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

Strategic Frameworkfor Economic and Social Restructuring in Thailand

Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB)

28April2005

Kampanat Pensupar, Ph.D


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

Roles and Responsibilities of NESDB

  • Strategic Planning Agency

  • Socio-Economic Policies Advisory

  • Intelligence Unit


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

The past 4 years

Today

GDP

growth

average 5.2 %

Consumption

Investment

Employment

TRACK I

GDP 2004

6.5 Tril. baht

Stability

Export of goods and services

TRACK II

Inflation 2.7%

Current account 6.2% of GDP

Public debt 46.2% of GDP

NPLs 11.4% of total loans

Foreign reserves 48.9 bill$


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

Dual Track Development Model

Parallel emphases on two pillars

First track emphasizes

foreign direct investment

and manufactured exports

under economic integration

with rest of the world

Second track: domestic and grassroots

Domestic

demand element

Local

enterprise element

  • OTOP

  • Village Funds

  • SMEs Bank and People Bank

  • Venture Capital

  • Housing project and housing loans for

  • GPF member and SOEs employees

  • Capital Creation

  • Low price computer and internet fees

  • 30 Baht health care

  • Life insurance policy for low income

Global competitiveness


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

Economic Forecast as ofDecember 7, 2004


Poverty

Poverty

Income Distribution


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

2010

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Goal: What will be Thailand’s next real sector development path?

  • Electrical Machinery

  • Computer-Parts, Accessories

  • Seafood

  • Telecom Equipment

  • Apparel

  • Tourism

  • What’s Next???

  • Agri…

  • Manuf……

  • Service

GDP Mil Baht

  • Clothing

  • Electrical machinery

  • Seafood

  • Other Machinery

  • Rice & Rubber

  • Rice

  • Fruit & Vegetable

  • Non-ferrous Metal

  • Crude rubber

  • Electrical machinery

  • Rice

  • Crude Rubber

  • Fruit & Vegetable

  • Non-ferrous Metal

  • Textile Fiber

  • Rice

  • Crude Rubber

  • Ores & Metal Scrap

  • Textile Fiber

  • Fruit & Vegetable

Key Policies/Drivers:

Import Substitution, Export-led growth, FDI

Innovation + Knowledge


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

Trends of Economic Development

Growth

Adaptive

Advantage

Competitive

Advantage

Understanding the world

Comparative

Advantage

Understanding marketplace

Developing products

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Dare to dream Thailand from now to 2020

Dare to dream Thailand from now to 2020


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

Key Points

Past 4 years

Future

2008

Paradigm shifts

GDP

9.5 Tril. baht

Economic restructuring

Dual Track

Policies

  • Economic integration

  • Technology

  • Population and social change

  • Environment and natural resource

  • Consumption trend

  • Economic growth with stability

  • Expand opportunities to grassroot level

4 Principles

  • Economic stability

  • Value creation

  • Proactive social policy

  • Regional economic cooperation

6 strategies

  • Agricultural value creation

  • Industrial value creation

  • Services base expansion

  • Proactive social policy

  • Security and international cooperation

  • Public sector reform


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

International Economic Policies

Prosper The

Neighbours: ACMECS,

GMS

International

Economic Policies

Global Reach and

Local Link: Bilateral FTA


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

Technology

Population & Social

Envi. & Nat. Resource

Consumption Trend

Economic Integration

5 Paradigm shifts


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

Sustained Prosperity

More Balanced Structure

Better Distribution

Guiding Principles for Economic and Social Restructuring

Economic stability and sustainability

Value creation from knowledge applicationล

Global and regional positioning

Proactive social policy to create positive externality


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

  • People

  • Natural resources

  • Cultural values

  • Indigenous Knowledges

  • “Thainess”

Existing Resource Endowment

New Demand

  • Repackaging/Branding Real Products & Services

  • Value Creation

  • Balancing Economic & Social investment

New Technology

Knowledge

Management


Strategies for economic and social restructuring

Strategies for Economic and Social Restructuring

  • Agricultural value creation and natural resources

  • Industrial value creation

  • Services base expansion

  • Proactive social policy

  • Security and international cooperation

  • Public sector reform


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

Agricultural value creation & natural resources


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

Industrial value creation


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

Services base expansion


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

Proactive Social Policy

  • Improve housing standard and public services in order to create good social environment and reduce health expenditure of people

  • Improve basic infrastructure and accessibility for aging and disability groups

  • Promote community strength and role in managing safety and security in life and assets

  • Promote social protection for people in informal economy

  • Promote role of family in nurturing discipline, life-skill and social responsibility

Human and Social Security

Housing

  • Promote varieties of savings scheme for retirement and increase opportunities for work for aging group

  • Promote appropriate health behavior for aging group

  • Plan for the establishing of long-term healthcare system

  • Revive traditional value and culture of cohabitation of different age groups in society

  • Increase opportunities to utilize knowledge of aging group in economic and social development e.g. expanding the Brain Bank scheme

Aging Society


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

Security and International Cooperation

International Cooperation

  • Accelerate ACMECS and JDS to support bordered economy including economic and social cooperation and seeking development partners

  • Negotiate trade agreement and cooperation at bilateral, regional and mutilateral levels in order to expand market access, arrange inter-agency mechanism for comprehensive and coordinated negotiation

Warning Systems

  • Build an early warning system of natural disaster and network of regional cooperation in early warning systems


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

Public sector reform

Capacity Building of Central Agencies

Domestic Regional Development

  • Building capacity of central agencies in order to be intelligence agency supporting trade negotiation and cooperation dialogue

  • Develop regional planning strategy to be management tools for CEO governor, provincial cluster and region

  • Build capacity for management and administration at regional level such as sub-district administration and CEO governor

  • Design urban plan and land usage plan, and expand infrastructure to support urban expansion and livable-city development

  • Establish resource allocation mechanism for public infrastructure investment with clear and efficient responsibility of central and local agencies

Building Social Harmony

Enabling Competitiveness of Private Sector

  • Campaign and ingrain Thai value and Thainess identity

  • Build mechanism in public sector and civil society for protection and reduction of conflict

  • Promote mechanism for people participation in economic and social development e.g. participate as Advisory board of CEO governor

  • Promote socially responsible and constructive media

  • Reform law, rule, regulation and tax system

  • Reform bureaucracy and public services

  • Anti-corruption at every levels and professions

  • Increase government budget for social, environment and natural resource while diversify sources of fund for infrastructure development


Government policies

Government Policies

  • Poverty Eradication Policy

  • Human Development and Quality of Life Policy

  • Restructuring Policy toward a balance and competitive economy

  • Natural Resources and Environmental Policy

  • Foreign and International Economic Policy

  • Legal System Development and Good Governance Policy

  • Policy to Promote Democracy and Civil Society Process

  • National Security Policy


Strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand

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