The generic market @ a cross road
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The Generic market @ a cross road. September 2006. The Generic Landscape. Fundamental drivers of growth unchanged. Ageing Population. High healthcare costs. Estimated % of regional population over 60. Total Healthcare Spending, % of GDP. The Generic Landscape. Growing generic

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The Generic market @ a cross road

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The generic market @ a cross road

The Generic market @ a cross road

September 2006


The generic market a cross road

The Generic Landscape

Fundamental drivers of growth unchanged

Ageing Population

High healthcare costs

Estimated % of regional population over 60

Total Healthcare Spending, % of GDP


The generic market a cross road

The Generic Landscape

Growing generic

opportunity

Revenues

Patent Expiries

  • Large mature markets

  • Increasing generic penetration

  • in newer markets

$ Bn

Patent expiry, 2006 - 10


The generic market a cross road

Increasing Generic Penetration


The generic market a cross road

Generic Market Opportunity

Strong generic growth through 2008

78

.

5

80

60

( US $ Bn )

43

.

7

2004

40

32

.

5

2008

19

.

8

20

9

.

7

6

.

5

5

.

6

5

.

5

4

.

3

3

.

3

2

.

9

1

.

2

0

Worldwide

USA

Germany

Japan

UK

France

CAGR

2004 - 08

16%

13%

15%

11%

18%

28%


The generic market a cross road

Leading Generic Companies

8000

7000

Annual Sales (US$ Millions 06E)

Consolidation to gather momentum

6000

5000

?

4000

Pliva

+

?

BRL

Watson

3000

+

Andrx

2000

1000

0

Teva

Sandoz

Merck

Ranbaxy

Mylan

Ratiopharm


The generic market a cross road

“Competition is good” – is it now? Really?

2000

2006


The generic market a cross road

Invasion!!! Over a 100 competitors in the US market


The generic market a cross road

A new reality – commodity type market

SANDOZ: “We expect prices to fall by at least 10% in 2006”


The generic market a cross road

Emerging Market Generics Competitive Advantages

  • Low cost – R&D, production facilities.

  • Technologically advanced – Decades of serving home markets regardless of IP.

  • Global presence – M&A , organic expansion.

  • Vertically Integrated – API world leaders.

  • P4 – concentration on US exclusivity.


The generic market a cross road

Authorized Generics – How Bad Are They?


The generic market a cross road

Biosimilars – The Future?


The generic market a cross road

Biosimilars – Where & When?


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