Los Angeles | Boston | London | Frankfurt | paris. The Great Restructuring: Get Involved or Get Out of the Way. May 2013. “The root of our problems is not that we’re in a Great Recession, or a Great Stagnation, but rather we are in the early throes of a Great Restructuring .”
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The Great Restructuring: Get Involved or Get Out of the Way
“The root of our problems is not that we’re in a Great Recession, or a Great Stagnation, but rather we are in the early throes of a Great Restructuring.”
– Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew Mcafee
World Economy: Get Involved
US Economy: Move Out of the Way
Percentage of Total World GDP By Time Period Since 1 A.D.
Approximately one quarter of all the goods and services produced in recorded history have been produced in the last decade…and the vast majority of economic growth occurred in the 20th century.
Sources: Angus Maddison, “Historical Statistics of the World Economy”; Payden Calculations, The Economist, “Quantifying History: Two Thousand Years in One Chart.”
$98.0 Trillion (Estimated)
Per Capita GDP
Currently, emerging markets (as a share of global GDP) are just surpassing developed markets. EM countries tend to have larger population growth and far more room for investment than DM countries, allowing them to grow at a much faster rate.
**All numbers based on Purchasing Power Parity valuation of country GDP
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook April 2012
If China grew at a 7.6% year-over-year rate in 2013, this would increase their overall GDP in US dollars by close to 600 billion. In other words…
China 2013 GDP
Sweden 2011 GDP
China 2011 GDP
Source: International Monetary Fund
**Based on GDP calculations in USD
Per Capita GDP
Japan 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
China 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Growth in US Exports to Top 10 Markets, 2000-11
Source: US Department of Commerce
*MENAAP: Middle East, N. Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan
II Outpace Growth in Advanced Regions
Unprecedented in post-war era
The number of long-term unemployed has nearly tripled during the recession.
Gross job losses each quarter
Gross job gains each quarter
Updated through Q2 2010
Source: United Nations
Who needs a human when you have me?
Source: Labor Department
Structural misalignments in the US labor market appear in the sector-by-sector breakdown. Construction and manufacturing led the job declines—and both sectors have yet to recover. However, on net, some sectors like education/health care and professional services have, on net, added to payrolls over the period.
Kauffman Foundation poll of entrepreneurs, Sept. 2011
Finding qualified people
Managing Fast Growth
Source: BLS; Kauffman Foundation
Net job creation, 1985-2005
25.3% of the 28,776 engineering and technology companies founded from 1995 to 2005 had an immigrant key founder. These 7,283 companies
produced more than $52 billion dollars in 2005 sales and in 2005 had just under 450,000 employees.
Innovative, creative start-up firms are net job creators, not Fed QE
Source: Business Formation and Dynamics By Business Age
Unemployment Rate By Job Type
Non Routine: Management, Art, Business Legal, Computer, Science, Architecture, Education, Health, Social, Protection, Building and Grounds, and Personal Food Preparation
Routine: Sales, Office and Administrative, Construction, Maintenance, Production, Transportation
Source: New York Federal Reserve
Over 26 Years….
Europe Cedes Ground from 22% of World GDP to 11%
China Grows from 4% to 19% of World GDP
Rest of World Increases Share of World GDP from 40% to 47%
Rest of world includes all countries other than US, euro area, China and Japan
Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDP.”