Research on climatic change and climate variability on human health in mexico present and future
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Research on Climatic Change and Climate Variability on Human Health in Mexico: Present and Future. Dr. Horacio Riojas Rodríguez MSc. Grea LItai MSc. Magali Hurtado Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Mexico. October 1 st , 2008. The Context.

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Research on climatic change and climate variability on human health in mexico present and future

Research on Climatic Change and Climate Variability on Human Health in Mexico: Present and Future

Dr. Horacio Riojas Rodríguez

MSc. Grea LItai

MSc. Magali Hurtado

Department of Environmental Health,

National Institute of Public Health, Mexico

October 1st, 2008


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

  • The Context.

  • Previous studies.

    • Diagnostic on the effects of Climate Change on human health in the mexican population

    • Impact of Climate Variability on the Incidence of Malaria in Chiapas and Dengue in Veracruz.

    • Scenarios of Health Risk, associated with Climate Change in the Region Olmeca (Veracruz).

  • Research in Health and Climatic Change. Challenges

  • Networking


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

Pathways by which Variability Climate Change and affects health

Moderating

influences

Health effects

Regional weather changes

Temperature- related

illness and death

T

Variability and

Climatic Change

Extreme weather-

related health effects

Contamination pathways

Transmission dynamic

  • heatwaves

Air pollution-related

health effects

  • extreme weather

  • temperature

Water -and food

borne diseases

  • precipitation

Vector-and-rodent

borne diseases

Research

Needs

Adaptation

Source: Adaptation from Patz et al. 2000


The context

The Context

  • Epidemiological Transition

    • Chronic diseases

    • Infectious diseases (vector borne diseases)

  • Demographic Transition

    • Increase in life expectancy

    • Increase in urban population

  • Inequity social and ecological vulnerability

  • Health Sector: Linkage between Health and Climate is relatively new


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

MAIN CAUSES OF DEATH IN MEN, 2003

Mortality

Deaths

Rate (100,000)

1. Ischemic heart disease.

27,978

54.0

2. Diabetes Mellitus

26, 730

51.6

3. Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases

20,478

39.5

4. Cerebrovascular diseases

12,604

24.3

5. Obstructive pulmonary disease

10,286

19.8

6. Assault (homicide)

8,660

16.7

7. Acute respiratory infections

7,346

14.2

8. (Motor vehicle accidents (traffic)

7,289

14.1

9. Nephritis and nephrosis

5,535

10.7

MAIN CAUSES OF DEATH IN WOMEN, 2003

EPIMIDEMIOLOGICAL TRANSITION

* Source: Institute for Statistics and Information and Director General of Health Information. Secretary of Health, Mexico.


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

Estimate the future potential health impacts

Vulnerability associated with climate change in Mexico and its local effects on health

Effects of Temperature and Ozone on hospital admissions in the Cd. Of Mexico from 1998 to 2007: Vulnerable Population Groups

CURRENTLY

Retrospective studies

States

Municipalities

States

Ecologycal regions

Diagnostic study on the effects of climate change on human health in the Mexican population

Impact of climate variability on the incidence of Malaria in Chiapas

Climate change scenarios to assess their potential impacts on health in Mexico

Scenarios of health risk, associated with climate change in the Region Olmeca (Veracruz)

2005

Impact of climate variability on the incidence of dengue in Veracruz

2007

2002

Time


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

Contribution to the Mexico’s Third National Communication to the United Nations Framework. Convention on Climate Change


Diagnostic on the effects of climate change on human health in mexican population

Diagnostic on the Effects of Climate Change on Human Health in Mexican Population

  • Objective:

    Conducting a national diagnosis of the potential impact of climate change on human health from the selection of causes of illness and death in the scientific literature have been reported related to climate and that are relevant in terms of public health for Mexico.

Source: Mexico’sThird National Communication to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change


Health problems in mexico

Health Problems in Mexico

  • Vector-borne diseases

    -Dengue -Chagas disease -Malaria

  • Heat strokes

  • Scarcity and water quality

  • Air pollution in large cities

  • Hydro meteorological Phenomena

Source: Mexico’sThird National Communication to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change


Heat waves in the states with extreme temperatures

Heat Waves in the States with Extreme Temperatures

The coefficients of correlation and time series analysis showed in the states of Baja California and Sonora, a positive and statistically significant heat waves with the temperature, the maximum and minimum temperature.

Source: Mexico’sThird National Communication to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change


Acute diarrheal disease in areas with high poverty

Acute Diarrheal Disease in Areas with High Poverty

Source: Mexico’sThird National Communication to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change


Classic dengue morbidity in endemic states

Classic Dengue Morbidity in Endemic States

Most states are considered endemic, show an increase in dengue cases.

Classic dengue morbidity

Mexico 1998-2004

Rate by 100,000 hab.

In the states of Colima, Guerrero and Veracruz this increase is related (significantly) with the temperatures..

Source: Mexico’sThird National Communication to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change


Impact of climate variability on the incidence of dengue and malaria in veracruz and chiapas

Impact of Climate Variability on the Incidence of Dengue and Malaria in Veracruz and Chiapas

  • Objective:

    Assess the influence of temperature, precipitation and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the transmission of dengue and malaria in Mexican municipalities, representing different climates.


Design of the study

Design of the study

  • A retrospective ecological study was conducted, using time-series in which we compiled the weekly reported cases of dengue and malaria, the weather and climatic parameters: temperature, rainfall and sea-surface temperature (SST) of the 2 municipalities of the State of Veracruz and State of Chiapas.


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

GULF OF MEXICO

Veracruz

San Andres Tuxtla

Pantelho and Chenalho

Pacific Ocean

Dengue

Study Area: Veracruz

San Andrés Tuxtla and Veracruz

Study Period: 1995 - 2003

Dependent Variable:

Weekly reported cases of dengue

Climate variables:

Temperature (including min. and max)

Precipitation

Sea-surface Temperature (SST)

Malaria

Study Area: Chiapas

Pantelho and Chenalho

Study Period: 1990 - 2000

Dependent Variable:

Weekly reported cases of malaria

Climate Variables:

Temperature (observed, min. and max )

Precipitation

Sea-surface Temperature (SST)


Statistical analysis

Statistical Analysis

  • Trends and seasonal variations.

  • Cross-correlation coeficients between autoregressesd dengue series, with different lag times.

  • Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA)

    • Normality and heteroskedasticity

    • White noise tests

    • Seasonality

      • Logaritmical transformation


Results dengue in san andres tuxtla and veracruz

RESULTSDengue in San Andres Tuxtla and Veracruz


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

SST

Date

Weekly dengue cases

Weekly dengue cases

SST

Hurtado et al. TMIH 2007

SST and weekly dengue cases of San Andres Tuxtla

Weekly dengue cases


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

SST and weekly dengue cases of Veracruz

Weekly dengue cases

SST

Date

Weekly dengue cases

Weekly dengue cases

SST

Hurtado et al. TMIH 2007


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

Adjusted coefficients between the natural logarithm of weekly cases of dengue in San Andres Tuxtla and climate variables

The weekly cases of dengue are increased by 46% when the SST rises by 1° C with a delay of 16 weeks, the minimum temperature 1°C at the same week and rainfall 1cm 3, three weeks earlier.

*Precipitation: Lag of 3 weeks

**SST: Lag of 16 weeks

Hurtado et al. TMIH 2007


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

Adjusted coefficients between the natural logarithm of weekly cases of dengue in Veracruz and climate variables

The weekly cases of dengue are increased by 42% when the SST rises by 1° C with a delay of 20 weeks, the minimum temperature at the same week rises 1°C and rainfall 2 weeks earlier, rises 1cm 3.

*Precipitation: Lag of 2 weeks

**SST: Lag of 20 weeks

Hurtado et al. TMIH 2007


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

2003

Weekly dengue cases

Prediction

Prediction

Weekly dengue cases

Prediction

Weekly dengue cases

San Andres Tuxtla DenguePredictions

Date


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

2003

Weekly dengue cases

Prediction

Veracruz- DenguePredictions

Prediction

Weekly dengue cases

Weekly dengue cases

Prediction


Results malaria in chiapas

RESULTSMalaria in Chiapas


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

30

20

15

28

Weekly malaria cases

10

Casos de malaria

SST

26

5

24

0

1990w1

1992w1

1994w1

1996w1

1998w1

2000w1

2002w1

2004w1

SST

Weekly malaria cases

Casos de malaria

TSM

SST and weekly Malaria Cases in Pantelho and Chenalho


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

Adjusted coefficients between the natural logarithm of weekly cases of Malaria in Pantelho and Chenalho and climate variables

Observed temperature: Lag of 7 weeks

Precipitation: Lag of 3 weeks

Sea Surface Temperature: Lag of 10 weeks


Scenarios of health risk associated with climate change in the region olmeca veracruz

Scenarios of health risk, associated with climate change in the Region Olmeca (Veracruz)

  • Objective:

    Conducting a regional pilot study to develop and evaluate risk scenarios on human health caused by climate change in the state of Chiapas and Veracruz, including the components of health, environment and vulnerability.


Design of the study1

Design of the study

Ecological study with a retrospective analysis of time series of monthly records of dengue fever, acute diarrheal diseases and acute respiratory infections in the municipalities of the “Region Olmeca” of the state of Veracruz in relation to temperature and rainfall and considering the component of vulnerability


Study area

Study Area

  • Study area: Región Olmeca, Veracruz

  • Study Period : 1995 -2005

  • Health outcome: monyhtly cases of

    • Dengue

    • Acute diarrheal diseases

    • Acute Respiratory Infection

  • Climate variables:

    • Temperature (max. and min)

    • Precipitation


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

Factors of vulnerability

  • Region affected by the events in health.

  • Susceptible population: children under five years and people older than 65.

  • Limits or thresholds of temperature events in health.

  • Identification: -geographical factors -physical factors -demographic factors -population factors that determine the vulnerability of a region.

September 25, 2008


Statistical analysis1

Statistical analysis

  • Trend and seasonal variations in the graphs of time series

  • Using sine and cosine functions to adjust for seasonality

  • Negative Binomial Regression Analysis:

    -Model with sine-cosine, population and time variable with appropriate lags

    -Autocorrelation test on the residual model

    -Lags of the residual model

    -Repeat residuals generation of the model, till to eliminate its autocorrelation


Results dengue ari and add in region olmeca

RESULTSDengue, ARI and ADD in Region Olmeca


History trend of temperature san juan evangelista

History trend of temperature (San Juan Evangelista)


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

Relative Risk (RR) of weekly dengue in Municipalities of the Region Olmeca 1995 – 2005


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

RR of weekly dengue cases of Acute Diarrheal Diseases in children (<5yrs), associated with changes in maximum temperature and precipitation, Municipalities of the Región Olmeca 1998– 2005


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

RR of weekly cases of ARI in children ( <5 yrs) associated

with change in minimum temperature and precipitation.

Municipialities of the Region Olmeca 1998 – 2005


Research in health and climatic change challenges

Research in Health and Climatic Change. Challenges

HEALTH SECTOR

  • Identify health risk associated with climate change by region including vulnerability using climate change scenarios.

    • Vector borne diseases

    • Climate and pollution in large cities. Interation between temperature and ozone

    • Disasters and new conditions for diseases

  • Strength the link between research and policy

  • Build Early Warning Systems and link them with the Epidemiological Surveillance System

  • Include health aspectDisss into the Local Adaptation Plans

  • Impact on the health system


Research in health and climatic change challenges1

Research in Health and Climatic Change. Challenges

LINK WITH OTHER SECTORS AND DISCIPLINES

  • Multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary projects

    • Continuos assessment from climatologists

    • Driven forces of health risk generation (deforestation, food scarcity, water)

    • Cost estimation on health

    • Permanent assessment from the Climatic Researhers

    • Environmental and Social Vulnerability.

      • Ecosystemic approach

      • Social inequity


Dr horacio riojas rodr guez msc grea litai msc magali hurtado

2050

2100

Time

2020s

2050s

2080s

Level

Age group (years)

0-4

5-14

15-29

30-44

45-59

60-69

70+

1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

3

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

3

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

3

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

3

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

3

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

Scenarios of Climate Change and Health

Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions

Global climate models: Generate series of maps of climate prediction at a future

Model impact on health: To estimate the changes in relative risks of specific diseases

2020s

2050s

2080s

CONACYT

Conversion into public health measures: Early Warning Systems

Adapted from: McMichael et al. 2004


Networking

Networking

  • Meeting on climate variability and change, risk associated with the weather. IAI

  • Regional Consultation to assess capabilities, gaps and priorities for Research on Climate Change and Poverty Reduction in Latin America and the Caribbean. IDRC

  • INE/SEMARNAT (Advice on technical analysis of studies for the Third National Communication in Mexico to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)

  • International Ecohealth Forum. IDRC, FIOCRUZ, IAEH.

  • CRN (Collaborative Research Network). Interamerican Institute for Climate Change Research

  • Cuba, Bolivia, Panama, Venezuela (“The effect of global change on human health and food vulnerability”)

  • Science Center of the Atmosphere/UNAM

  • Mexico City and Veracruz Government.


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