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STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS. OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE November 1, 2009* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst. *To be updated after the December meeting of the State Board of Equalization. GENERAL REVENUE TRENDS Income vs. Expenditures (In Millions). $6,333m. OFFICIAL ESTIMATE.

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state budget outlook multi year trend analysis
STATE BUDGET OUTLOOKMULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS

OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE

November 1, 2009*

Shelly Paulk

Revenue Analyst

*To be updated after the December meeting of the State Board of Equalization.

general revenue trends income vs expenditures in millions
GENERAL REVENUE TRENDSIncome vs. Expenditures(In Millions)

$6,333m

OFFICIAL ESTIMATE

$6,038.5m

$429.1

Actual Collections

$527.2

$5,918.6m

$104.3

$772.8

$891.1

$5,529.6m

$621.3

$428.3

Appropriations

Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2003 thru FY-2010 – Ave. 3.99%

Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 thru FY 2010) – Ave. 2.76%

Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP increases (est. 10%) and ROADS increases (08 Session)

Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2003 thru FY-2010 Official Estimate – Ave. .55%

general revenue fund sources based on osu econometric model projections in millions
General Revenue Fund SourcesBased on OSU Econometric Model Projections(In Millions)

FY-2012 – FY-2014

Ave.7.6% Growth

Ave. 7.8% Growth

Ave. 0.7% Growth

Ave. 5.1% Growth

Ave. 1.2% Growth

BASED ON OSF OFFICIAL ESTIMATE

BASED ON OSU ECONOMETRIC MODEL PROJECTIONS

SOURCES ARE SHOWN AS TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING

general revenue growth 5 major sources in millions over prior year
General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources(In Millions over Prior Year)

(Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax)

*5.3%

*5.2%

(0.5)%

*6.0%

(5.6)%

*7.3%

*(14.1)%

*Based on OSU Econometric Model projections.

ACTUALS

No adjustments for OHLAP or ROADS funding.

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