The Campaign for McMaster University

1. The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University The Economic, Ideational and Political Converging Paths Towards Basic Income(s)2018 NABIG CongressOldrich Bubak Mo FerdosiMcMaster University

2. On Change… I am certainly not an advocate for frequent and untried changes in laws and constitutions. ... I know also, that laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind. As that becomes more developed, more enlightened, as new discoveries are made, new truths disclosed, and manners and opinions change with the change of circumstances, institutions must advance also, and keep pace with the times. —Thomas Jefferson, 1816 The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University

3. Outline We will demonstrate: Deepening problems: plaguing labour markets and social landscapes across welfare systems Decision-makers: understand and debate needs for a new approach Conditionality: a crucial element Ideas: arguments and obstacles Varieties of BI: a key to study The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University

4. Countries: diverge on their institutional development, while converging on the problems they face converge in understanding the needs for a new paradigm, while diverging on its specifics The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University Observations

5. Data Presentation External slide The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University

6. Notions of Basic Income(s) Minimalist libertarian model: classical liberal economists promote UBI as the most economic and efficient way to welfare provision Mixed welfare model: typically focused on part of the population, some conditionality Strong basic or guaranteed adequate income: universal, unconditional, and paid out of publicly controlled resources The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University

7. Conditionality A BI-like solution for unemployed single parents, in effect in the UK until 2008 Recipients were not obliged to seek work A system of tax incentives in place ensuring they would be better off if they did -- proved ineffective Once the obligations to seek work were imposed, the employment rate for this group increased The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University …. conditionality is to play an important role in basic income debates and designs

8. The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University Varieties of BI inclusiveness: which part of the population? conditionality: what action, if any, must be taken to qualify for the full benefit?

9. The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University Universal Unconditional • Simple, equitable, and transparent design is also the target implementation of the BI proponents, including the BIEN. • The model is the annual $1,000 to $2,000 payment made unconditionally to all 600,000 Alaskan residents. • Paid from the oil revenue-financed Alaska Permanent Fund

10. The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University Selective Unconditional • Includes the NIT class of proposals, means testing, motivated to work through tax incentives • Canadian Ontario BIPP, the Spanish “B-Mincome,” and the planned “Know What Works” Dutch experiment; the Manitoba Mincome experiment, plus the series of pilots in the US in 1970s • Appealing not only due to their lower cost, but also as the existing administrative structures can support immediate implementation

11. The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University Selective Conditional • Target individuals or families in particular income groups expected to take one or more required actions to qualify to receive a regular government payment • Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs): Brazilian Bolsa Familia • Denmark: generous labour market policies—requiring individuals in transitions between jobs to enhance their skills in order to receive generous benefits

12. The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University Universal Conditional • All members of society, but require the recipients to take one or more actions if they wish to go beyond the base benefit and/or maintain the benefit • Netherlands: planned experiment intends provide an option to a portion of the recipients to qualify for an extra monetary benefit by volunteering in public setting • Children from working families have, on the whole, better outcomes later, per some policymakers.

13. The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University Seeking an Ideational Common Ground [Before CCTs] it had not been always too obvious how poverty could be reduced in a sustainable manner. It had also not been too obvious that governments should invest public resources (or taxpayer money, if you will) in the improvement of living conditions of only a part of a country’s population—actually a part that earns less and consequently pays less in taxes Was the biggest hurdle overcome? Morais de Sá e Silva, Michelle. Poverty Reduction, Education, and the Global Diffusion of Conditional Cash Transfers. Springer International Publishing, 2017.

14. The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University Common Ground: The Right • Finds basic income as a transparent and efficient way of realizing a welfare state. • While this view embraces universality and unconditionally, one assumption is that basic income will eventually replace most if not all other state support systems.

15. The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University Common Ground: The Left • Sees the universal and unconditional (freedom from obligation) income as a way toward the decommodification of labour (and avoiding exploitation) and social inclusion. • Having either but not both is seen as undesirable. In case of having only universality, BI becomes a mere subsidy to capital. In case having just unconditionality, it is seen as socially exclusionary

16. Shaping Ideas Outcomes shaped by: prominence of ideas (ESM, austerity, flexicurity) the capacity of various groups to influence decision making the path-dependent institutional landscapes limiting options and (dis)allowing access to decision making processes (employment regimes, welfare state regimes) The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University

17. Ideational Hurdles A number of actors Believe their jurisdictions already have a BI (Liberals in Canada) Doubt the effects of BI, not only due to the limits of the data at hand, but also due the unintended consequences (recall the UK case referenced earlier) See it difficult to come to an agreement on issues which are not yet conspicuous .. Thinking of a world w/o work…is not easy Understand the huge cost of living differentials across large countries in particular The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University

18. Conclusion We have Discussed the virtually universal problems plaguing countries across institutional configurations Demonstrated countries understand a need for a new solution Argued that conditionality is to be expected in these Shown a varied solution space of BI Hinted to the ideas which may become the main obstacles to debates Made a case for varieties of BI a key to study The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University

19. The Campaign for McMaster University The Campaign for McMaster University References • Gaffney, Declan. 2015. "Even in Finland, universal basic income is too good to be true" The Guardian, Dec. 10. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/10/finland-universal-basic-income-ubi-social-security • Hamilton, Tracy. 2016. "The Netherlands' Upcoming Money-for-Nothing Experiment " The Atlantic, Jun 21. https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/06/netherlands-utrecht-universal-basic-income-experiment/487883/ • Morais de Sá e Silva, Michelle. Poverty Reduction, Education, and the Global Diffusion of Conditional Cash Transfers. Springer International Publishing, 2017. • Munnell, Alicia H. 1987. "Lessons from the income maintenance experiments: an overview." New England Economic Review May. pp 32-45. • Sheahen, Allan. 2012. Basic income guarantee: Your right to economic security. Springer. • Simpson, Wayne, Greg Mason, and Ryan Godwin. 2017. "The Manitoba Basic Annual Income Experiment: Lessons Learned 40 Years Later." Canadian Public Policy 43(1): 85-104. • Ward, Sean. 2008. " Basic Income in Ireland: Surveying Three Decades " in Seán Healy and Brigid Reynolds, eds. Making Choices - Choosing Futures: Ireland at a Crossroads. Dublin: CORI Justice. • Young, Margot E. and Mulvale, James. 2009. "Possibilities and Prospects: The Debate Over a Guaranteed Income". Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, November 2009 . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2387939