Modeling future senior elder populations predicting size ages and gender makeup
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Modeling Future Senior/Elder Populations: Predicting Size, Ages, and Gender Makeup. Presented By: Senior Mobility Initiative on Cape Cod (SMICC) Dr. Alice E. Smith Warren K. Smith, BSEE, ASA Saturday, March 10, 2007

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Modeling future senior elder populations predicting size ages and gender makeup

Modeling Future Senior/Elder Populations: Predicting Size, Ages, and Gender Makeup

Presented By:

Senior Mobility Initiative on Cape Cod (SMICC)

Dr. Alice E. Smith

Warren K. Smith, BSEE, ASA

Saturday, March 10, 2007

2007 Joint Conference of The American Society on Aging and the National Council on Aging


Senior elder population modeling

Senior/Elder Population Modeling

An analytical tool that assists researchers to predict the future number, ages, and gender of senior/elder populations (state, region, county, city, town, or ZIP Code area).

Developed to assist senior/elder mobility services planners, such estimates are invaluable to anyone needing estimates of age 55+ populations for up to 30 years into the future.


Why do predictions ourselves

Why Do Predictions Ourselves?

  • Why not use State Data Center predictions?

    • County- and Town –level only available

    • Crude knowledge of in/out migration

  • Cape Cod’s justification:

    • ZIP Code-level population counts needed

    • “Retirement migration” needs to be included

    • Need “What If’ modeling capability


Simple population model

In Migration

Births

Starting Population

(1980 Census)

Ending Population

(1990 Census)

“Cohort-Component Method”

Deaths

Out Migration

Simple Population Model

(Developed by U.S. Census Bureau)


Model components

Model Components

Starting Population:

U.S. Census Counts by 5-Year Age Group

Births:

Birth Certificate data

Deaths:

Death Certificate data

Migration: In ?? Out ??

Ending Population:

U.S. Census Counts By 5-Year Age Group


Dilemma

Dilemma

Problem:

We Don’t Have Accurate Migration Data!

Solution:

We Have To Calculate It


Concept of net migration

Concept of “Net Migration”

To Model a Population, Knowing The Net Number of In-Migrants and Out-Migrants by Age Group is Sufficient

This Fact Simplifies Our Calculation


Calculating senior elder net migration

Births

(Can Ignore For Senior/Elder Age Ranges)

Cohort-Component Method

Starting Population

(1980 Census)

Ending Population

(1990 Census)

Deaths

Net Migration

Calculating Senior/Elder Net Migration


Solving for net migration of seniors elders

Solving For Net Migration of Seniors/Elders

Net Migration: Ignoring Births, Net Migration is Simply The Difference Between Starting Population Minus All Deaths and The Ending Population Count;

Where: PEnd = PStart - D + MNet

Therefore: MNet = PStart - D - PEnd


Studied past population dynamics

1980 Census

1990 Census

Census 2000

Cohort-Component

Method

Cohort-Component

Method

Studied Past Population Dynamics

Historic Senior/Elder Population Dynamics: 1980-2000

(“Boomers” in their 30’s and 40’s)

(“Boomers” in their 40’s and 50’s)

Determined Growth History For EACH Age Group:

Ages 40-44, 45-49, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85+

Calculated 20-Year AVERAGE Migration Factor For Each Age Group


Predicting future populations

Predicting Future Populations

Starting Population Counts(by Age Group)

Historic 20-Year AVERAGE Migration Rates (By Age Group)

Microsoft

EXCEL

Spreadsheet Model

Ending Population Counts(By Age Group)

“What If” Factors

Death Rates (by Age Group)


Result population predictions numbers of persons by age group

Result: Population Predictions(Numbers of Persons by Age Group)


Town level predictions

Town-Level Predictions


Modeling future senior

Q & A

** Discussion **


Contact information

Dr. Alice E. Smith

President,

Family-Centered Institute, Inc.

66 Massasoit Trail

Brewster, MA 02631

[email protected]

Warren K. Smith

Chairperson,

Senior Mobility Initiative on Cape Cod

c/o Family-Centered Institute, Inc.

66 Massasoit Trail

Brewster, MA 02631

[email protected]

Contact Information


Modeling future senior

Introductory Remarks:

Good Morning.

My name is Dr. Alice Smith and I am here with my colleague (and husband), Warren to tell you about a method that we have been using up on Cape Cod in Massachusetts to predict what our future senior/elder population will look like—10-, 15-, 20-, even 30-years into the future.

Briefly, we put historic Census statistics and other key demographic data into a computer spreadsheet (Microsoft EXCEL) and developed formulas that MODEL how our senior/elder population has changed in the past—the dynamics of it. From this retrospective MODEL, and some thoughtful assumptions about future changes, we have been able to predict the basic charac- teristics of our FUTURE senior/elder population—from 2010 out to the year 2035.

How do we use these predictions? Planners on Cape Cod are beginning to use this information as they develop long-range plans for a variety of programs and services for our rapidly growing “Baby Boomer” population—or should I say, “Senior Boomers”? Our local Area Agency on Aging (Elder Services of Cape Cod & Islands) and several of our municipal Councils on Aging are using these population predictions in their strategic planning. Also, we have had great interest from our regional emergency planning organizations, as well as Fire Chiefs and municipal EMS/EMT service planners. One of our larger towns (Falmouth) is using our population predictions to justify building a new multi-million dollar Senior Center. In addition, Grant writers are beginning to use this information as they develop county, state, and federal funding proposals.

In our own research, we use these population predictions as the basis of what we call our Senior MoAbility Indicators (presented in our Workshop yesterday morning). These Indicators are a set of twenty mobility characteristics that serve to generally describe the ability of seniors and elders to “get up, get out, and get about” in their community—again, a tool for planning future senior/- elder programs and services.

Now, my husband Warren is going to tell you briefly about how the future population prediction MODEL was developed, how it works and show you a few examples of how it is being utilized. Warren . . . .


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