GEOSS ADC Architecture Workshop Water/Drought Scenario 5 Feb 2008

1. GEOSS ADC Architecture WorkshopWater/Drought Scenario5 Feb 2008 David Arctur OGC Interoperability Institute darctur@ogcii.org

2. Nov 2007 GEO Plenary and Ministerial Summit: Drought … The Growing Threat • During the past 30 years, there is evidence of an increase in the incidence of drought worldwide • Increasing temperatures combined with growing populations and unsustainable use of water resources are combining to magnify drought’s impacts • Required Areas of Expertise • Drought Monitoring • Forecasting • Impacts Monitoring and Assessment • Some or all of these areas are beginning to be addressed by national and regional programs Response: Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) • Research • Education • Planning

3. Scenario: Drought Monitoring and Response • Overview • Context and pre-conditions • Scenario events • Data sources and other coordination

4. Overview • Drought: an increasingly damaging phenomena • Growing population & agricultural stresses on surface & groundwater • Reduced snow and glacier reservoirs • Complex phenomena • Defined across many time scales, impacting many economic sectors • Sea surface temperatures (SST), winds, land cover, many other factors • Scenario objectives • Monitor & forecast drought indicators • Assess water and drought conditions and impacts • Plan for mitigation • Carry out response strategy • Consider and address multi-disciplinary and cross-border institutional communications and coordination

5. Context and pre-conditions Actors (stakeholders) Information available before scenario begins Specific processing requirements GUI development and GEOSS portal integration Institutional coordination

6. Context and pre-conditions: Actors • Consumers • Residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural • Local officials • City managers, county managers • Agency officials and staff • State Natural Resource Department decision/policy makers • State and Federal agency water managers • (USA) Army Corps of Engineers • GEOSS portal integrator

7. Context and pre-conditions: Information available before scenario - 1 • Example regions of interest • Near-term: Southeastern USA (NIDIS data and capabilities) • Longer-term: Pacific Basin (Americas, Australia, Pacific Islands) • Framework geographical datasets • Roadways, landcover, hydrography • Locations of major agricultural production, industrial centers, and urban areas with high water resource demands • Gazetteer and locations for built-up areas, with linked population figures • Digital terrain/elevation model • Orthophotography or satellite imagery

8. Context and pre-conditions: Information available before scenario - 2 • Environmental data • Precipitation  • Soil moisture indices • Drought indicators • Palmer Indices • SPI (standard precipitation index) • VHI (vegetation health index) • SWSI (surface water supply index) • Snow water content and snow depth • Streamflow, lake and reservoir levels, and groundwater status • Soil and air temperature • Humidity • Wind speed and direction • Solar radiation

9. Context and pre-conditions: Information available before scenario - 3 Documented impacts on human and natural systems • Single-sector outputs such as agricultural yields • Multi-sector impacts such as those affecting water demands, wildfire risks, and recreation

10. Context and pre-conditions: Specific processing capabilities • Monthly and seasonal forecasting of temperatures and precipitation; anomalies (greater/lesser than normal) 12 months in advance (example source: NWS Climate Prediction Center) • Assessment of current water conditions (precipitation, ground water, USDM indices, water monitor network, many products) • Drought 3-month outlook (USDM subjectively derived) • Drought impacts monitoring system with impacts database, analysis tools and practices • Determination of drought triggers: threshold values of an indicator that distinguish drought magnitude and determine when management actions should begin and end • PDI or USDM triggers result in actions taken by state and local managers; generally locally/regionally determined, not national • In the US, Army Corps of Engineers may respond to triggers

11. Context and pre-conditions: GUI development, GEOSS portal integration • Data discovery tools: portal (GUI) & clearinghouse (harvester) • For community data sources (metadata) to be harvestable, metadata server needs to support CSW • If community data sources support standard WMS, WCS, WFS, SOS, etc. services, the portal can preview and access the actual datasets; otherwise it will simply refer user to remote server • Data viewer client: within the portal, Google Earth, etc. • Drought research community “adopts” the portal • Community-managed web UI – wiki, journals, pre-defined and derived maps • Build and save projects; add new data as it emerges • Help support cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary applications

12. Context and pre-conditions:Institutional coordination WMO, CEOS, IGOS/IGWCO, GCOS, GEWEX NIDIS (US National Integrated Drought Information System) NADM, USDM (N.American/US Drought Monitor) FEWS (Famine Early Warning Sysem) Drought Management Center of Southeastern Europe HARON (Hydrological Applications and Run-Off Network) Plus many others as potential collaborators – see National Drought Mitigation Center International Activities

13. Coordination with GEOSS tasks WA-08-01 – Integration of In-situ and Satellite Data for Water Cycle Monitoring GEO UIC coordination?

14. 2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit Drought Side Meeting • 29-Nov-2007 • Introduction • Mark Myers, Director, USGS • North American Drought Monitor and NIDIS • - Jay Lawrimore, NOAA/NCDC • FEWS NET • - Tamuka Magadzire, FEWS NET Regional Scientist for Southern Africa • Drought Management Center for Southeastern Europe • Silvo Zlebir, Director, Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia • SERVIR • - Carrie Stokes, USAID • ~40 people from 19 countries • Argentina • Australia • - Austria • Belgium • - Botswana • - Canada • - France • Germany • Honduras • - Japan • Kenya • Korea • Netherlands • Norway • - Panama • Slovenia • South Africa • - United Kingdom • - USA

15. 2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit United States Proposal • Develop a Global Drought Early Warning System within the coming decade to provide: • A system of systems for data & information sharing, communication, & capacity building to take on the growing worldwide threat of drought • Regular drought warning assessments issued as frequently as possible with increased frequency during a crisis

16. 2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit • Recommended approach to achieving long-term objective • Initially address by expanding regional activities • Begin with areas strongly impacted by ENSO (Americas and Pacific: North and South America, Australia) • Near-term Priorities • Develop a Task within the GEO Work Plan • May/Jun 08: Convene a meeting of technical leadership to identify needs and priorities (Hosted by the IDEA Center in Hawaii) • Identify needs as well as existing or potential capacities across nations • Establish initial approaches and identify one or more fundamental aspects to address first

17. Prerequisites for global drought preparedness Must first assess each national participant’s: • Current drought monitoring capabilities and practices • Observational data network activities, capabilities, and resources • Drought forecasting • Drought response • Current potential level of participation in global network • What is needed for them to reach their desired level of participation • May have different levels of participation depending on variations in countries’ capabilities and desires

18. Scenario Steps (simplified) • Agency research staff tasked and capable to forecast seasonal & annual precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, drought • Research staff requests data from GEOSS portal • Research results show region will have severe drought • Assess physical and economic risks and impacts of drought, identify needed actions • Deliver services, assistance, mitigation (track results) • Notify related stakeholders regarding data and results

19. Supporting data and other resources - 1 US NIDIS Portal, http://www.drought.gov US NIDIS, The National Integrated Drought Information System Implementation Plan, June 2007, http://www.drought.gov/pdf/NIDIS-IPFinal-June07.pdf US NIDIS, Managing Drought: A roadmap for change in the United States, July 2007 http://geosociety.org/meetings/06drought/roadmap.pdf US National Drought Monitoring Center, Univ Nebraska, Lincolnhttp://drought.unl.edu/monitor/tools.htm

20. Supporting data and other resources - 2 Famine Early Warning System, http://www.fews.net/ IGOS Water Theme, http://www.igospartners.org/Water.htm IGWCO, Conceptual Framework for a Hydrological Applications and Run-Off Network (HARON), March 2007 http://www.gewex.org/IGWCO/9.4_IGWCO_HARON.pdf GCOS, http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/index.php?name=geoss GEWEX, http://www.gewex.org/ UN FAO, Water Development and Management Unit,  http://www.fao.org/nr/water/infores_databases_climwat.html

21. Next Steps • Work with likely participants to identify case studies • NIDIS Portal team working on Southeast US drought response (near term) • Broader drought science community trying to build capacity among developing countries & islands in Pacific Basin to support DEWS (longer term) • Others…?