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# 概念 - 范围 Concept - Scope - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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### 风险分析方法Risk analysis approach拜耳医药保健有限公司北京工厂BHC Product Supply Beijing Site2012年3月March, 2012

The scope of the risk analysis is to find out

what could be wrong with any kind of activity (and inactivity….),

What we can do to improve the situation

To make an equipment safer we should add-on other equipment to control and warn in advance in case of danger.

The more the controls, the safer the equipment.

Well, a plane would never take off due to the weight of the control instruments…..may be it would be even worse….

It means we have accept a “known” risk while performing our activity.

• 通常，我们可以使用确定的方法来评估活动或工艺中可能会有哪些错误。Usually we can use deterministic approach to evaluate what can be wrong with an activity or a process or….

• 有时这些过程:

• Sometimes the processes are:

• 用确定性的方法来处理太复杂

• Too complicated to be treated with deterministic methods

• 使用确定性的方法费用太高

• The deterministic method is too expensive to be used

• 确定性的方法需要太长时间

• The deterministic method requires too long time

• 所以我们需要分解问题，引入另外的方法：概率性的/统计学方法

• So we have to break down the problem and introduce an additional approach: probabilistic/statistical。

F

dl

dl

A full deterministic approach can be useful for the bicycle as we can guess just a few modes to break down…..

An airplane or a nuclear power station has MANY different MODES to be defective

Risk = Probability x Effect

• 可能性是统计学的部分

• Probability is the STATISTICAL part

• 结果的影响是确定性的部分

• Effect is the DETERMINISTIC part

• 例如：

• For example:

• 某人假如碰巧踩到香蕉皮滑倒，风险是什么？

• What is the risk a person runs into in case she/he slips a banana peel

• 2) 对于地球上一个人来说，一旦宇宙另外的星系发生核爆炸，风险是什么？

• What is the risk for a person in our planet in case of a nuclear explosion in another galaxy of the universe

• 根据不同的模型计算（预先危险性分析，故障模型和失效影响分析，故障树分析……）

• Calculated according to different methods (HAZOP, FMEA, Fault Tree Analysis…)

• 建议从做简单的开始（通常是FMEA），然后如果需要，使用最精确的方法（故障树分析）。

• It is suggested to start from the easiest (usually FMEA) then, if needed, use the most precise (Fault Tree Analysis)

• 最精确的方法也是成本最高的方法（需要时间和费用）。所以建议仅使用该方法用于评估非常复杂和危险的工艺。

• The most precise is also the most expensive (time and experts needed) so its use suggested only to evaluate the probability of very complicated and dangerous processes.

• 首先，影响可以根据普遍的经验预测，例如人员摔倒；着火；粉尘爆炸，在没有精确计算下。

• The effects can, at first, be predicted according to the common experience, i.e. people falling down; fire; dust explosion, without calculating “how much”

• 可以根据数学模型评估，例如对于最复杂和最危险的工艺，火焰热辐射，爆炸超压。目的是计算影响有多大。

• Evaluated according to mathematical modeling, i.e. flame heat radiation, explosion overpressure, for the most dangerous and complicated processes. The scope is to evaluate how big can be the effect.

• 建议评估“多米诺模型”，例如经过检查后的影响可能只是导致很小的火灾。但是如果它发生在大的储罐旁边，就可能会演变成很大的火灾。

• It is suggested to evaluate “domino effects”, i.e. the effect under examination may led to a small fire. But if it happens beside a big tank, the effect can evolve to a very big one.

L101

V101

P101

or

Ev 2.1

or

Ev 1.2

Ev 1.3

Ev 1.1

and

and

Ev 2

Ev 1

Ev 3

Ev 4

Ev 5

Ev 2

Top event is the final EFFECT

P=Pev1xPev2 + Pev2xPev3xPev4 + Pev5

Probability can be estimated empirically based on “how many controls” we perform on the event. I.e.

Control 1 – we have an SOP and the personnel is trained - 高的HIGH -

Control 2 – in addition to “Control 1” there is an instrument to indicate relevant parameters - 中等的MEDIUM -

Control 3 – In addition to “Control 2” there is an alarm in case the parameters under control reach an alert level. - 低的LOW -