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Hybrid Propellant Module HPM Commercialization Study Final FY01 Presentation November 6, 2001

Table of Contents. IntroductionProjected Satellites/ConstellationsHPM Performance Analyses Non-Geostationary Orbit (NGSO) Support Geostationary Orbit (GEO) Support Integrated HPM Traffic ModelHPM Economic Viability AnalysisOperations and Technology AssessmentSummary. Introduction. HPM Comm

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Hybrid Propellant Module HPM Commercialization Study Final FY01 Presentation November 6, 2001

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    1. Hybrid Propellant Module (HPM) Commercialization Study Final FY01 Presentation November 6, 2001 Doug Blue (714) 896-3728 Dave Carey (714) 896-3186 Rudy Saucillo (757) 864-7224

    2. Table of Contents

    3. Introduction

    4. HPM Commercialization Study Overview

    6. HPM Commercialization Study Methodology

    7. References for Commercial Satellite Traffic Models and Military Analogs

    9. Projected Satellites/Constellations

    12. Satellite Market Forecast Commercial NGSO market estimates fluctuating, trends volatile GEO launch demand fairly constant ( >30/year) Spacecraft mass growth continues - especially heavies ( >5,445 kg) Spacecraft trend toward electric propulsion Commercial launch demand trends: Consolidation of spacecraft manufacturers/owners Increasing on-orbit lifetime Business conservatism for financing projects Military Military applications difficult to identify; programs under definition Trend toward greater value and functionality per satellite unit mass; initial “picosatellite” experiments have been completed AF Science Advisory Board: distributed constellations of smaller satellites offer better prospects for “global, real-time coverage” and “advantages in scaling, performance, cost, and survivability” Potential for very large antenna arrays for optical and radio-frequency imaging utilizing advanced structures and materials technologies

    16. HPM Commercial Satellite Deploy Scenario

    17. HPM Commercial Satellite Servicing/Refueling Scenario

    18. HPM Military Applications

    46. HPM Economic Viability Analysis

    48. Critical Economic Factors Charge to deploy satellite to operational orbit Propellant delivery cost to LEO ($ per kg) Payload (satellite) cost ($ per kg) to LEO HPM/CTM use rate Life cycle earnings

    49. Range of deployment charges was selected to represent a substantial reduction over current launch costs for similar sized satellites Area of economic viability defined by positive life cycle earnings with allowance for non- recurring start-up costs Propellant delivery costs must be less than $600 to $1,600 per kg over range of charges for satellite deployment

    50. $70 million upper value of the range offers $15 to $30 million dollar cost advantage over an existing launch vehicle capable of deploying 5,000 kg to GTO (i.e., Delta IV medium +4,2) $50 million nominal value is competitive, cost wise, with a Delta III class vehicle, but offers substantially greater payload capability to GTO, or multi payloads to lower energy orbits $30 million minimum deployment cost represents a highly competitive option which can deploy Delta IV medium +4,2 class payloads for less than the cost of a Delta II

    55. Operations and Technology Assessment

    59. Summary

    60. Principal Results and Conclusions

    61. FY02 Activities

    63. References

    64. Backup

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