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High Resolution Forecasts at NCEP: 2014 Efforts and Future Plans

High Resolution Forecasts at NCEP: 2014 Efforts and Future Plans. Geoff DiMego et al. Mesoscale Modeling Branch EMC/NCEP 301-683-3764 geoff.dimego@noaa.gov WoF /HIW 2 April 2014. T O P I C S. Sochi runs HiResWindow upgrade (May) Fire Wx runs NAM upgrade (June) View of the future.

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High Resolution Forecasts at NCEP: 2014 Efforts and Future Plans

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  1. High Resolution Forecasts at NCEP:2014 Efforts and Future Plans Geoff DiMegoet al. Mesoscale Modeling Branch EMC/NCEP 301-683-3764 geoff.dimego@noaa.gov WoF/HIW 2 April 2014

  2. T O P I C S • Sochi runs • HiResWindow upgrade (May) • Fire Wx runs • NAM upgrade (June) • View of the future

  3. NMMB Model Forecasts for SochiWMO’s Frost-2014 • Matthew Pyle (high-res deterministic) • DusanJovic (ensemble system setup) • Steven Levine (processing XML obs) • NCEP Central Operations 9/3/1 km 7 member 7km Ens.

  4. Deterministic NMMB Run Configuration • Triply nested 9/3/1km NMMB prediction system centered near Sochi • Used together with COSMO-RU2, INCA, GEM, Harmonie • Initialized off GFS, run 4 times per day, forecasts to hrs • GRIB2 grids provided every 30 minutes • BUFR/XML soundings at gaming venues • 50 vertical levels with model top of 50 hPa • Physics:

  5. 1 km deterministic run, total precip (mm) for 24 h ending 00Z 14 January model (obs)

  6. 1 km deterministic run, total precip (mm) for 24 h ending 12Z 13 March model (obs) Getting the radar obs for verification has become problematic …

  7. HiResWindow Upgrade OverviewMay 2014 Timeframe

  8. HiResWindow Upgrade Overview~May 2014 Timeframe Domains and run times current future 18Z 06Z,18Z 00Z,12Z 00Z,12Z 06Z + Guam 00Z,12Z + Guam 00Z,12Z 00Z,12Z 00Z,12Z 06Z,18Z 06Z,18Z All Runs: 4 km WRF-NMM 5.15 km WRF-ARW Alaska: 3 km NMMB 3.5 km WRF-ARW CONUS: 3.6 km NMMB 4.2 km WRF-ARW HI/Guam/PR : 3 km NMMB 3.8 km WRF-ARW 8

  9. NMMB Warm Season Retrospective QPF Improved Bias June 1-19, 2013 24 h precip verification over eastern CONUS Equitable Threat Score Ops East CONUS WRF-NMM Para CONUS NMMB Frequency Bias 8 1 bias=1

  10. E. CONUS QPF: Combined Feb+Jun 2013 Retro Cases + Dec/13-Feb/14 Real Time00-24 hr + 12-36 hr + 24-48 hr Periods Equitable Threat Score Equitable Threat Score Opnl WRF-ARW Opnl WRF-NMM Para WRF-ARW Para NMMB Frequency Bias Frequency Bias 2 2 1 1

  11. NMMB Exhibits More Intense Convective Signals, More In Line With Observations Model and observed 1 km AGL radar, 09Z 27 April 2011 operational WRF-NMM parallel NMMB para NMMB shows stronger, sharper line Diffuse convective signals in opnl WRF-NMM are a perennial complaint of SPC obs

  12. ARW Too Exhibits More Intense Convective Signals, More In Line With Observation Modeled and observed 1 km AGL radar, 00Z 20 May 2011 operational WRF-ARW parallel WRF-ARW • para WRF-ARW better w/: • linear convection in eastern KS • capturing isolated nature of cells over KS/NE. Although seen in this case, diffuse convective signals NOT a consistent problem of WRF-ARW obs

  13. BLIND TEST: Which is WRF-ARW and Which is NMMB Model and observed 1 km AGL radar, 00Z 22 December 2013 parallel ????? parallel ?????

  14. NMMB on the left and ARW on the right Model and observed 1 km AGL radar, 00Z 22 December 2013 parallel WRF-ARW parallel NMMB

  15. More intense convective signals, more in line with observations Model and observed 1 km AGL radar, 00Z 22 December 2013 operational WRF-NMM parallel NMMB Much sharper and more intense leading edge in para, position also better

  16. More intense convective signals, more in line with observations Model and observed 1 km AGL radar, 00Z 22 December 2013 operational WRF-ARW parallel WRF-ARW Stronger radar signal (40+ dbZ, yellow/ orange/red) packed in a narrower band in para, more like obs.

  17. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/

  18. Subject: Re: [Owles_participants] Beautiful vortex now!Date:   Wed, 18 Dec 2013 10:16:18 -0500From:  David Zaff – NOAA Federal CC:         <owles_participants@___.ucar.edu> FYI this is the 2nd time the 1.3 WRF [sic] picked up one of these features ... Attached is from the 36hr forecast from yesterdays 12Z run - note the mesolow over the east end of the lake. It's about 3 hrs too slow, but it's there.

  19. 12z 17 Dec 2013 36hr 1.3km NMM Fire Wx NestWinds @ 10m & Simulated Composite Reflectivity“VT 18z Wed: Flow becoming aligned”

  20. 12z 17 Dec 2013 36hr 1.3km NMM Fire Wx NestWinds @ 10m & Simulated Composite Reflectivity“VT 18z Wed: Flow becoming aligned”

  21. Subject: Fire weather [OWLes Runs of NAM FireWx]Date: Thu, 23 Jan 2014 08:19:53 -0700From: Jim Steenburgh [University of Utah]To: Geoff DiMego <Geoff.Dimego@noaa.gov> From today's call: "Kudos to the 1.3 km fire weather nest which does a nice job of picking up on mesolows.  This model has been doing phenomenal for this winter." – Dave Zaff, NWS Buffalo. Nice work!

  22. NMMB Model ChangesFor NAM Upgrade~June 2014 Timeframe • Replace legacy GFDL radiation with RRTM • Modified Gravity Wave Drag/Mountain Blocking • More responsive to subgrid-scale terrain variability • Target : Improve synoptic performance without adversely impacting 10-m wind forecasts • New version of Betts-Miller-Janjic convection • Moister convective profiles, convection triggers less • Target : Improve QPF bias from 12-km parent • Ferrier-Aligo microphysics • Modified treatment of snow cover/depth • Use forecast rime factor in land-surface physics • Target : Reduce snow depth in marginal winter conditions w/complex precipitation type • Reduce roughness length for 5 vegetation types • Target : Improved 10-m wind in eastern CONUS

  23. NMMB Model UpgradesTargeting NAM Nests • Current NAM nests • 4 km CONUS, 6 km Alaska, 3 km Hawaii/Puerto Rico, “Placeable” FireWx 1.33 km (CONUS) or 1.5 km (Alaska) nest. • CONUS/AK/HI/PR nests used as input to NAM Downscaled (NDFD) grids • All have “reduced” convective triggering • All run to 60-h except 36-h for fire weather nest • Nests in NAM upgrade; no change in resolution • All nests, except Alaska, will run with explicit convection • Measures to improve severe storm signatures: • Extensive modifications to microphysics (Ferrier-Aligo) • Reduce 2nd order diffusion in nests (improves vertical storm structure in cases suggested by SPC) • Separate microphysics species advection for all nests except 6 km Alaska

  24. Seasonal QPF ETS (top)/Freq. Bias (bottom) : Ops (red) vsPll (dashed blue) NAM 12 km over CONUS Winter 2013 12/1/13-2/28/14 Fall 2013 9/1 – 11/30/13 Bias increased in Fall Green Line : Bias=1.0

  25. Ops NAM (solid), Parallel NAM(dashed line) 24h,48h,72h forecast ETS at 0.25”/day 12 mo. Running Mean 2007-2013 April 2012 DC Derecho rerun: 18z cycle 28 June, 2012 4 km CONUS nest and 1.33 km Fire Wx nest

  26. Projected End State of 2 petaflop WCOSS S R E F S R E F S R E F S R E F Hurricane Hurricane Hurricane Hurricane RTOFS RTOFS RTOFS RTOFS GEFS GEFS GEFS GEFS GDAS GDAS GDAS GDAS NAMext GFS NAMext NAMext NAMext GFS GFS GFS NMMB Storm Scale Ensemble members within CONUS and/or Alaska NMMB HRRRE members CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico ARW HRRRE members CONUS and Alaska Convective Allowing Data Assimilation – NMMB 3D URMA / RUA / AoR Convective Allowing Data Assimilation – ARW CFSv3

  27. T R A D E S P A C EDecisions Made to Make Things Fit

  28. Mesoscale Ensembles Replace Regional Deterministic Guidance WILL BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE

  29. Every NMMB-based member of the hourly HRRRE will have this makeup Every ARW-based member of the hourly HRRRE will have this makeup 12 km parent* Run to 18 hr 1 km FireWx Run to 18 hr 3 km Alaska Run to 18 hr 3 km CONUS Run to 18 hr 3 km PR-Hisp Run to 18 hr 3 km Hawaii Run to 18 hr 1 km FireWx Run to 18 hr * Parent may be replaced by global or global ensembles if performance warrants

  30. Every NMMB-based member of SREF (extensions of HRRRE members) will have this makeup Every ARW-based member of SREF (extensions of HRRRE members) will have this makeup 15 km parent* Run from 18 to 84 hr 5 km Alaska Run from 18 to 48 hr 5 km CONUS Run from 18 to 48 hr 5 km PR-Hisp Run from 18 to 48 hr 5 km Hawaii Run from 18 to 48 hr * Parent may be replaced by global ensembles if performance warrants

  31. Besides the NAMRR, be looking for … 4D EnVar for the NCEP GFS Daryl Kleist NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch Data Assimilation Team With acknowledgements to John Derber (EMC), Dave Parrish (EMC), Jeff Whitaker (NOAA/ESRL), Kayo Ide (UMD), Ricardo Todling (NASA/GMAO), and many others http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/annualreviews/NCEPmodelReview-2013.html

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