An approach to modeling group behaviors and beliefs in conflict situations
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An approach to modeling group behaviors and beliefs in conflict situations. Norman D. Geddes Michele Atkinson Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc. www.asinc.com SBP08 April 1-2, 2008 Phoenix, AZ. The DIME Doctrine. Integrated consideration of all activities in the Theater

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An approach to modeling group behaviors and beliefs in conflict situations

An approach to modeling group behaviors and beliefs in conflict situations

Norman D. Geddes

Michele Atkinson

Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc.

www.asinc.com

SBP08 April 1-2, 2008 Phoenix, AZ


The dime doctrine

The DIME Doctrine

  • Integrated consideration of all activities in the Theater

    • Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic

  • Planning of tactical operations

    • Reduce counter-productive activities

  • Requirement for an Effects Model to support DIME during planning

    • Usable by soldiers at the Brigade staff level

    • Adaptable to other theaters


Nation states

Nation-States

  • A State operates within a political, military, economic, social and informational infrastructure (“PMESII”)

    • The conditions of the PMESII both constrain and motivate the behaviors of groups within the State

  • There are many types of groups within a State

    • Government branches and agencies

    • Non-governmental organizations

    • Voluntary citizen groups, such as Political groups, Religious groups, Criminal groups, Commercial groups and Tribal or ethnic groups

  • The alignment of the groups is critical to the formation of a stable Nation-State


Group model of intentions and beliefs

Group model of intentions and beliefs

  • Groups of interest

    • Specifically focused on groups that are influenced by or perform DIME activities

  • Groups of interest are purposeful

    • Groups are sustained by goals and methods held in common by the members

    • Goals and methods are constrained by the PMESII

  • Groups of interest have common beliefs

    • Groups may differ widely in their belief structures

    • Groups have beliefs about the PMESII and about other groups


Representing intentions

Provide Modern

Infrastructure

Education

Information and

Communications

Healthcare

Food Supply

Transportation

Housing

Energy

Roadways

Rail

Airways

Roadways

Operated

Roadway

Built

Government

Project

Business

Project

Humanitarian

Project

Representing intentions

  • Each group has its own planning and acting structure

    • Represented by a Plan Goal Graph (PGG)

      • A knowledge base describing how the group will choose goals and make plans for achieving them

      • A PGG Instance Graph the represents the current state of the groups planning and execution of activities towards its goals


Representing beliefs

National

Transportation

Status

National

Roadway

Status

National

Airways

Status

National

Rail

Status

National

Waterways

Status

Regional

Airway

Status

Regional

Rail

Status

Regional

Roadway

Status

Local

Road Segment

Status

Airport

Status

Local

Rail Segment

Status

Rail Yard

Status

Roadway

Segment

Report

Airport

Report

ATC Equipment

Report

Rail Segment

Report

Rail Yard

Report

Representing beliefs

  • Each group has its own belief structure

    • Represented by a Concept Graph

      • A knowledge base that provides the recipes for composing beliefs from observations

      • A Concept Instance Graph that represents what the group believes at the moment


Example scenario

Example scenario

  • From the book “Three Cups of Tea”

  • Four group roles

    • Three tribal villages, One humanitarian

  • There is both direct and indirect conflict of intentions

    • Villages are competing for the project

    • Only material for one project


Humanitarian plan goal graph

Humanitarian Plan Goal Graph

Humanitarian Group

Have Members

Assist

Others

Have

Money

Appealing

Public Message

Support

Needs

Donations

Determine

Needs

Reduce

Needs

Perform

Projects

Provide Temporary

Relief

Visible Information

Events

Project

Completed

Perform

Building Project

Have Materials

Have Site

Structure

Completed


Humanitarian concept graph

Humanitarian Concept Graph

National

Transportation

Status

National

Education

Status

National

Organization

Status

National

Roadway

Status

Regional

Educational

Status

Regional

Group

Status

Nearest

School

Regional

Roadway

Status

Village

Local

Road Segment

Status

Group Location

School

Local

Group

Person

Location

Group

Conflict

Project

Debt to

Person

Roadway

Segment

Report

Member

Debt to

Group

Materials

Allocation

Conflict

Report

Project

Status

Report

Person

Location

Report

Associate

Materials

Stockpile

Person

Member

Report

Materials

Allocation

Report

Debt

Event


Tribal plan goal graph

Tribal Plan Goal Graph

Tribal Group

Have Members

Improve

Tribal Needs

Have

Money

Families

Purchase

Assistance

Agriculture

Barter for

Assistance

Commerce

Create

Debt

Debt Repaid

Honor as Guest

Perform Favor


Model operation

Model Operation

  • Groups interact with the PMESII via Actions and Reports

  • Typical time tick is one day

  • The groups update their beliefs and their intentions each time tick

User

Interface

Persistent

Storage

Initialization

Prior Model

Runs

PMESII state data

Message dispatching

Group models


Summary

Summary

  • Fine grain matching with historical events is promising

    • Underlying tools for knowledge construction and group behavior generation appear adequate

  • The next experiments will focus on scaling up to 100 and then 1000 groups

    • We anticipate that 1000 groups will meet most tactical needs


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