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Jean-Noël Thépaut ECMWF (and many colleagues from the Centre)

ECMWF Status Report Operational changes since 18 th North America / Europe Data Exchange Meeting and short term plans. Jean-Noël Thépaut ECMWF (and many colleagues from the Centre). OUTLINE. Cycle 29R2 (28 June 2005)

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Jean-Noël Thépaut ECMWF (and many colleagues from the Centre)

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  1. ECMWF Status ReportOperational changes since 18th North America / Europe Data Exchange Meetingand short term plans Jean-Noël Thépaut ECMWF (and many colleagues from the Centre) 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  2. OUTLINE • Cycle 29R2 (28 June 2005) • Cycle 30R1 (1 February 2006). The higher-resolution forecasting system T799/L91, T255 4D-Var • Other changes • Short (and long) term plans 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  3. Initial 1D-Var+4D-Var assimilation of SSM/I rain affected radiances Changes to AIRS assimilation Introduction of Meteosat-8 (MSG) winds New Jb stats (from recent ensemble of data assimilation) Modifications to humidity analysis (less increments in areas with high CAPE, reduced spinup) Modifications to convection scheme (bugfix for negative mass flux, implicit momentum+tracer transport) Revision of the initial perturbations for the EPS Introduction of SMHI Baltic sea ice Model Cycle 29R2 (28 June 2005) 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  4. The 1D-Var observation operator developed for this project is the most complex ever, and the good (Gaussian) distribution of (obs-background) is a remarkable result The change resulted in a small global moistening and a reduction of the tropical precipitation spin-down Comparisons with independent estimates of the TCWV (Jason) are improved Short-term forecasts of humidity improve in the tropics; The effect is still limited otherwise (w not part of the control variable) 1D-Var + 4D-Var assimilation of SSM/I rain affected radiances 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  5. Implementation SSM/I TB’s Scan-bias correction Interpolation to model grid Air-mass bias correction Pre-screening 1D-Var Observation operator: • Lin. Large-scale condensation • Lin. Convection • RTTOV-SCATT Post-screening TCWV-observation 4D-Var 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  6. Comparison of cycle 29r2 e-suite and operations with independent TCWV retrievals from Jason microwave radiometer (may 2005) e-suite ops Global 1.74 1.90 N. Hemisphere 1.63 1.71 Tropics 2.12 2.43 S. Hemisphere 1.53 1.62 N. Atlantic 1.63 1.69 N. Pacific 1.57 1.69 stdev (kg/m2) Assimilation of rain-affected microwave radiances and improvement of humidity analysis 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  7. TC Katrina Dropsonde Departure Statistics: 20050823-20050830 Radiosonde: Specific humidity Dropsonde: Windspeed Dropsonde: Temperature CY29R2: 0001 CY29R2 no TCWV: exp Area: 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  8. retune existing bias model coefficients new surface emissivity model intelligent thinning of AIRS data new observation errors (long-wave channels) VIS / NIR cloud information VARBC technical changes Changes to AIRS assimilation 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  9. Changes to AIRS assimilation Stratospheric channels usage unchanged Impact of changes : • Significant increase in tropospheric AIRS data use (mostly due to thinning and emissivity model) • Small forecast improvement • No change to stratospheric oscillations Tropospheric / surface sensing channel usage increased Channel wavelength 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  10. Introduction of MSG (Meteosat-8) AMVs IR10.8 µm WV6.2µm WV7.3 µm QI>60 “USED” WINDS Blacklist forms part of selection: QI>85 IR: no winds between 700-460hPa WVcloudy 6.2: no winds below 400hPa WVcloudy 7.3: no winds below 600hPa WVcloudy and IR: no winds below 250hPa level in the Tropics (25S-25N) VIS: no winds above 700 hPa 2-4 Dec 2005 An assimilation experiment was carried out for 89 days. Forecast scores for up to forecast day 10 showed a neutral overall impact:  NH: slightly positive to neutral  SH: slightly negative to neutral  Tropics: neutral 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  11. Scores positive in Europe(99% statistical significance at day 3 and 98% at day 7) Scores positive in Northern Hemisphere(99% statistical significance at day 3 5 and 7) Scores neutral in Southern Hemisphere 29R2: Operational change in June 2005 Anomaly correlation of 500hPa forecasts for Europe Mean from 1 Dec 2004 to 28 June 2005 Cycle 29r2 Cycle 29r1 Day 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  12. T799 horizontal resolution (12min time step) 4D-Var increments at T255 (30min time step) Vertical resolution increased to 91 levels Model top raised to 0.01hPa Grid-point humidity and ozone in 4D-Var Changes to the wave model Resolution increased from 0.5° to 0.36° Use of Jason altimeter wave height data and ENVISAT ASAR spectra in the wave model assimilation. ERS-2 SAR spectra no longer assimilated. Changes to EPS Resolution increased from T255L40 to T399L62 (30min time step). Wave model resolution unchanged at 1° , but number of frequencies increased from 25 to 30, and number of directions changed from 12 to 24. The 30r1 suite, T799/L91 (1 Feb 2006) 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  13. Humidity at the top of the model (in the mesosphere) increased slowly in data assimilation Solved by scaling down the humidity increments Occasional instabilities of the TL (over steep orography) Addressed by more precise handling of the NL trajectory A strong jet develops in the tropical mesosphere Addressed by retuning Rayleigh friction Parallel runs restarted with 30r1 Altogether (RD + OD) the whole period from 1st July to change date + Summer 2004 ~300 cases Three problems encountered 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  14. Statistical significance, t-test, 500hPa height 260 00UTC cases from 1 January 2005 Green denotes T799L91 better (red) would denote T799L91 worse 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  15. More observations are accepted by the data assimilation in the E-suite (e.g. 20% more synop winds!) The background and the analysis are in average closer to synop winds The observation cost function at the end of the minimization is smaller in the E-suite despite of the increased number of observations Forecasts from the E-suite verify better against radio-sonde winds, especially for Europe and the Tropics Ocean wave forecasts from the E-suite are substantially better Other statistics from the high resolution suite 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  16. Forecasts of Katrina for 12 UTC, Monday 29 August + + 36h forecast Operational T511 L60 Test T799 L91 + + 72h forecast Operational T511 L60 Test T799 L91 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  17. Use of warmest FOV of AIRS NOAA-18 HIRS operationally monitored AMSU-A and MHS operationally assimilated Operational monitoring of MTSAT-1R AMVs New bias correction coefficients implemented on February 8 Other changes over the last year 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  18. NOAA-18 AMSU-A in operations Radiances from the NOAA-18 AMSU-A instrument have been monitored / bias corrected and were successfully introduced to operations on the 8th September NOAA-18 AMSUA channel 8 (O-B) Passive monitoring OPS 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  19. Data from the NOAA-18 HIRS and MHS instruments have been passively monitored and bias corrections have been established. Impact of MHS in assimilation mode revealed neutral to slightly positive. NOAA-18 HIRS/MHS passive monitoring NOAA-18 HIRS channel 4 NOAA-18 MHS channel 5 Monitoring of the NOAA-18 MHS show that the radiances are less noisy than those from the AMSU-B (confirming improved instrument design for METOP) NOAA-16 AMSUB channel 5 NOAA-18 MHS channel 5 Standard deviation of (O-B) 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  20. NH Tropics SH 80 60 40 20 0 80 60 40 20 0 80 60 40 20 0 OBS IR (1953) OBS IR (4751) OBS IR (8726) 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 FG FG FG Control-experiment Z 500hPa Control-experiment Z 200hPa 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 -0.05 -0.1 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 -0.05 -0.1 Mean difference / (100% - mean score) Mean difference / (100% - mean score) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 days days MTSAT: An assimilation experiment was carried out for 31 days (Aug 2005). Data selection same as GOES-9 but with QI > 85. Results below are using JMA’s forecast dependent QI. WIND SPEED 1-31 Aug 2005 Active data Z anomaly correlation scores: OVERALL NEUTRAL impact. Only significantly positive result: NH 200hPa – day 3. 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  21. 8 February 2006 – New radiance bias correction Applied statically, but derived from variational scheme to be implemented with cycle 30r2 Sonde-bg Contol Sonde-bg New bias correction Sonde-an Control Sonde-an New bias correction RMS error of 300hPa tropical temperature forecasts Control pressure (hPa) New bias correction N Hem Mean from 8-31 Jan 2006 Day Temperature (K) 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  22. Data from twenty-eight sources used daily Large increase in number of data used daily Use of satellite data today 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  23. EPS extension to day 15 T255 perturbed forecasts from day 10 to day 15 T399/255 control to day 10/15 Also uniform T399 control to day 15 and T255 control to day 21 Variational radiance bias correction Thinning of low-level AMDAR data Improved treatment of ice sedimentation and autoconversion to snow in cloud scheme Implicit treatment of convective momentum transport To be used for T255L91 interim reanalysis for 1989 - …. To be used in version 3 of Seasonal Forecasting System? Short term plans 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  24. Introduction of turbulent orographic drag scheme Use of albedo fields from MODIS Use of high-resolution NCEP SST fields Refinements to stratospheric analysis Recalibrated radiosonde temperature bias corrections Also for 2Q or 3Q 2006: 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  25. 4D-Var changes: 3rd inner loop revised trajectory interpolation revised data usage, including modified Var QC new cloud and convection schemes in minimization Upgrade fast radiative transfer to RTTOV-9 Change model short-wave radiation scheme to RRTM-SW Unified medium-range/monthly EPS Start of GEMS constituent reanalyses for 2003/4 And for the use of new satellite data: Monitoring and later assimilation of data from: AMSR-E, TMI and SSMIS (for clear-sky and then rainy conditions) CHAMP, COSMIC and GRAS FY-2C, Met-9 METOP ATOVS + preparation for IASI Preparation for GOME-2 and ASCAT And for 4Q 2006: 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  26. GPS RO (CHAMP) assimilation trials 1D and 2D obs operators, June/July 2004 Polar stratospheric bias and oscillations are largely improved by GPS data Operational assimilation of CHAMP data will start as soon as data are received in real-time (expected end 2005), then COSMIC and GRAS 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  27. Ensemble component to data assimilation Explore long-window weak-constraint 4D-Var Exploit METOP, ADM, SMOS and other new satellite data Continue refinement of physical parametrization Assess need and plan if required for new dynamical core Coastal zone model for ocean waves and storm surges Prepare for next resolution upgrade Longer-term elements of four-year plan: 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  28. New stochastic physics and high res moist SVs for EPS Couple ocean and sea-ice throughout unified EPS Develop OPA-based Seasonal Forecasting System Establish GEMS system for constituent analysis Continue interim reanalysis and prepare for ERA-65/75 Longer-term elements of four-year plan: 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  29. Funded by European Commission under Framework Programme 6 (one of the GMES IPs) ECMWF and 25 partner institutes in Europe Deliverables: An operational capability for global analyses and forecasts of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O), reactive gases (O3, NO2,SO2, CO, HCHO) and aerosols (5 categories initially) A reanalysis of the recent period and validation against in situ measurements Use as much satellite and in situ data as possible Provide boundary conditions for regional air quality models and organize a European-size inter-comparison between regional air quality models The GEMS project has started 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  30. CO2Comparison with flight data from Japan Air Lines Flight data kindly provided by H. Matsueda, MRI/JMA 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  31. The interim reanalysis will start soon with T255L91, 4D-Var and cycle 30r2 (?) will run from 1989 onwards, and be continued in close to real time will use mostly same pre-2002 data as ERA-40, but will include reprocessed winds from EUMETSAT reprocessed ERS altimeter data GOME profile data from RAL improved radiosonde bias corrections European Regional Reanalysis (EURRA) potential for a European regional reanalysis project (EURRA) is being explored with NMSs and EEA A new major reanalysis (ERA-65 or -75) in due course funding has to be secured ECMWF plans for reanalysis 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  32. ERA-new ERA-40 Operations Much improved 500hPa height forecasts Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height, averaged for 12UTC forecasts from 1 January to 31 December 1989 Northern hemisphere Southern hemisphere Day 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  33. The principal goal of ECMWF in the coming ten years will be to maintain the current, rapid rate of improvement of its global, medium-range weather forecasting products, with particular effort on early warnings of severe weather events Complementary goals are: To improve the quality and scope of monthly and seasonal-to-interannual forecasts To enhance support to Member States national forecasting activities by providing suitable boundary conditions for limited-area models (and regional CTMs) To deliver real-time analyses and forecasts of atmospheric composition To carry out climate monitoring through regular reanalyses of the Earth-system To contribute towards the optimization of the Global Observing System ECMWF Strategy for 2006-2015 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

  34. Thank you 19th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006

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