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Predicting Homicides

Predicting Homicides. By Group B. Our Source. http://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.html. Murders By Year. Our Data. Predicting 2010. Excel functions TREND - TREND(known_y's, known_x's, new_x's) If/then statement. Some things can't be quantified.

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Predicting Homicides

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  1. Predicting Homicides By Group B

  2. Our Source http://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.html

  3. Murders By Year Our Data

  4. Predicting 2010 • Excel functions • TREND - TREND(known_y's, known_x's, new_x's) • If/then statement

  5. Some things can't be quantified • Many other environmental changes could change results • Some factors TREND function takes care of. • Remember, we are looking by neighborhood. • Increasing 10 murders by 5% is still less than 1. • Factors we may want to include: • City development • Gun Control • Unemployment Rate • Population and gender ratios

  6. City DevelopmentAffordable Housing • High housing density does not cause crime • Developing affordable apartments and duplexes scattered in multiple locations can reduce crime •  Concentrations of crime in one location is lessened • New developments should contain a mix unit types to accommodate different kinds of households           Source: http://www.abag.ca.gov/services/finance/fan/housingmyths2.htm • As a tool of economic development, helps to lower crime rates • National Crime Prevention Council supports construction of affordable housing to reduce crime           Source: http://www.affirmedhousing.com/resources/myths_and_facts.html

  7. Approach to deterring criminal behavior Influence offender decision before a criminal act through several strategies Strategies-Building Design Elements Natural Surveillance Ex. Place windows overlooking sidewalks and parking lots Natural access control Ex. Eliminate design features that provide access to roofs or upper levels Natural Territorial Reinforcment Ex. Provide trees in residential areas City DevelopmentCrime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) www.popcenter.org/tools/cpted Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_prevention_through_environmental_design

  8. City DevelopmentStudy on Chicago Public Housing Development • Apartment buildings surrounded by trees and greenery had less crime against people and property • 48 percent fewer property crimes and 56 percent fewer violent crimes compared w/ buildings w/ little/no vegetation Source:   http://lhhl.illinois.edu/crime.htm

  9. Gun Control • Gun control arguably has an effect on the rate of violence in the city • Hard to quantify the effect on homicides  • Most homicides were committed with illegal purchased and possessed firearms

  10. Homicides By Weapon Figure: fbi.gov

  11. Missouri Gun Laws Handguns •Permit to purchase a handgun? No •Registration of handguns? No •Licensing of owners of handguns? No •Permit to carry handguns? Yes

  12. Gun Buy Back Program • St. Louis, 2007 • Police department bought over 500 guns from city residents • Murder and violent crime rates still rose that next year • Studies of buyback programs have shown that many weapons sold to the police are older, smaller-caliber guns. The money paid by the police often goes towards buying newer, higher-caliber weapons. 

  13. Highly varied determinant • Not suited to broad data sets • Extremely localized • Steven D. Levitt • Alternative Strategies for Identifying the Link Between Unemployment and Crime • http://www.springerlink.com.ezproxy.umsl.edu/content/r21p67h7t672244k/fulltext.pdf • Prior research failed • Inconsistent empirical connection between unemployment and homicide rates • Unemployment rates are negatively correlated to homicide rates • SCOTT J. SOUTH AND LAWRENCE E. COHEN • UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE HOMICIDE RATE:A PARADOX RESOLVED? • http://www.springerlink.com/content/u51rq5j0n46j6nww/fulltext.pdf?page=1 Unemployment Rates

  14. Unemployment rates must be coupled with the change in unemployment in order to be a intelligible variable of homicides • Annual changes in unemployment are positively related to the homicide rate. • paradoxical effects of unemployment remain even after controlling for other theoretically-relevant variables. Look for a Change

  15. Wages had a larger effect on crime than did the unemployment rate • unemployment rate is cyclical and there is no strong long-term trend. • Economic conditions had no effect on the criminal activity for the more highly educated worker. • Low-skilled workers are the most affected by the changes in labor opportunities • Ambiguous nature • Numerous findings make results inconclusive • HIGHER CRIME RATE LINKED TO LOW WAGES AND UNEMPLOYMENT, STUDY FINDS • Ohio Stsate Research News,, Research Communications • http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive//crimwage.htm Still too Varied

  16. Saint Louis has less men than women by a significant margin: Males: 166,466   (47.0%) Females: 187,895   (53.0%) Saint Louis Sex Ratio According toSage Journals Online one of the major factors in its most accurate linear equations is a negative male to female sex ratio

  17. Population in July 2008: 354,361. Population change since 2000: +1.8% This is an average growth rate nationally Population density: 5723 people per square mile This is an average density nationally Population's Influence? There is little data that links population growth and population density to either an increase or decrease in homicide rates in Saint Louis

  18. Conclusion

  19. US Bureau of labor statistics • http://data.bls.gov/map/ • Bureau of Justice Statistics • http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/Local/JurisbyJuris.cfm?CFID=3587975&CFTOKEN=28827999 • Missouri Economic Resource and Information Center • http://www.missourieconomy.org/indicators/laus/default.aspx • City Data - Saint Louis • http://www.city-data.com/city/St.-Louis-Missouri.html Statistical Resources

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