Modeling assumptions
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Session 1. Modeling Assumptions. 2 nd Meeting of the Working Group for Analysis of Energy Saving Potential in East Asia region. 11-12 September 2007, JETRO Kuala Lumpur Momoko Aoshima EDMC/IEEJ. Before Starting Session1.

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Modeling assumptions

Session 1

Modeling Assumptions

2nd Meeting of the Working Group for Analysis of Energy Saving Potential in East Asia region

11-12 September 2007, JETRO Kuala Lumpur

Momoko Aoshima

EDMC/IEEJ


Modeling assumptions

Before Starting Session1

GDP growth rate in East Asia region will grow by 4.1% per annum toward 2030 with the high growth in Asian developing countries.


Modeling assumptions

Before Starting Session1

Total Primary Energy Supply will be 6,973 Mtoe in BAU case and 5,399 in APS case in 2030.

East Asia can achieve energy savings of 1,574 Mtoe in 2030 or 23% of the BAU projection.


Modeling assumptions

Session 1

Contents

  • Template

  • Status of Submission

  • Completeness

  • Target at one view-Improvement of Energy Intensity (TPES/GDP)

  • Assumption at one view

    Macro Economic Indicators(GDP, Population, Oil Price, Transport)

    Energy Conservation plan

    Power Generation

    Thermal Efficiency

    Electricity Trade

    Bio Fuels


Modeling assumptions

Template

During the 1st meeting held in Thailand, IEEJ requested to submit the assumptions template.

  • Period

    2010, 2020, 2030

  • Demand Indicators

    GDP, Population, Transport (Car holds), Industrial Production Indices, Services (Floor Space)

  • Power Development Plan

    Power Generation Mix, Electricity Trade, Thermal Efficiencies

  • Use of Bio-Fuels

  • Energy Efficiency Goals and Action Plans

    We set up two cases , which are BAU and APS.

    -Primary Energy Intensity (Energy/GDP)

    -Detailed Energy Saving Target


Modeling assumptions

Template


Modeling assumptions

Status of Submission

As the result of gathering information from each county using this template,

  • 13 of 16 countries submitted the template.

    Australia, Brunei, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Lao PDR, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam

  • Not submitted

    Cambodia, Singapore, Malaysia


Modeling assumptions

Completeness(1/2)

  • Completeness is different in each country.

Electricity Trade is submitted as follows;

Import: Indonesia(2020), Lao PDR(by 2020), Thailand(by 2020), and Vietnam

Export: Myanmar(by 2020)


Modeling assumptions

Completeness(2/2)

  • Completeness of the Energy Conservation Plan is more different than macro economic indicators by each country.

<Bio-Fuels>

India (APS), Indonesia (BAU), New Zealand (BAU & APS), Philippines (BAU & APS), Thailand (APS by 2020) and Vietnam (APS) submitted.


Modeling assumptions

Target at one view- Improvement of Energy Intensity (TPES/GDP)

  • Based on the submitted targets and IEEJ’s analysis, the target of energy intensity is set up into the model.


Modeling assumptions

Assumption at one view – Macro Economic Indicators(GDP)

  • Submitted GDP Assumption

GDP growth in East Asia region will gro by 4.1% per annum toward 2030 with the high growth in developing countries.

  • Model Assumption of GDP 2005-2030


Modeling assumptions

Assumption at one view – Macro Economic Indicators(Population)

  • Model Assumption of Population 2005-2030

Population in East Asia region will be slightly increased with the annual growth of 0.8%. Developed countries will be decreased while China and India will keep high growth.

Submitted assumption ↓


Modeling assumptions

Assumption at one view – Macro Economic Indicators(Oil Price)

  • The Assumption of Oil Price

Real price remains unchanged toward 2030.

Nominal price will be increased with inflation toward 2030.


Modeling assumptions

Assumption at one view – Macro Economic Indicators(Transport)

  • Submitted Assumption of Car holds

  • Model Assumption of Car holds

Motorization will grow in developing countries.

Car hold per capita will double in 2030.


Modeling assumptions

Assumption at one view– Energy Conservation Plan(FEC)(1/2)

The Assumption for energy conservation is different depending on countries. The plan of some countries are aggregated while some countries have a lot of information.


Modeling assumptions

Assumption at one view– Energy Conservation Plan(FEC)(2/2)


Modeling assumptions

Assumption at one view– Power Generation

Coal share will decrease in developed countries while the share will increase in developing countries. Coal share of some countries, Myanmar, Philippines and Vietnam, will at least double toward 2030.


Modeling assumptions

Assumption at one view– Thermal Efficiency

Thermal efficiency is improving in developed countries.

The improvement in developing countries is slow.


Modeling assumptions

Assumption at one view– Electricity Trade

Import countries: India, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Thailand, Vietnam

Export countries: China


Modeling assumptions

Assumption at one view– Bio Fuels

Bio fuel assumption is set into the model and the future demand will be 10 Mtoe in BAU case and 48 Mtoe in APS case.

India, China and Thailand will be major producers in East Asian.


Modeling assumptions

Finally

  • Most Assumptions are set into the model as exogenous factors.

  • The future energy demand is explained using these assumptions.

  • Using the energy conservation plan, we derive the energy conservation factor that is applied to the BAU regression equation.

  • Mr. Barcelona and Mr. Yanagisawa will explain the model structure and the result in next session.

  • Thank you very much!


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