Session 1. Modeling Assumptions. 2 nd Meeting of the Working Group for Analysis of Energy Saving Potential in East Asia region. 11-12 September 2007, JETRO Kuala Lumpur Momoko Aoshima EDMC/IEEJ. Before Starting Session1.
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2nd Meeting of the Working Group for Analysis of Energy Saving Potential in East Asia region
11-12 September 2007, JETRO Kuala Lumpur
GDP growth rate in East Asia region will grow by 4.1% per annum toward 2030 with the high growth in Asian developing countries.
Total Primary Energy Supply will be 6,973 Mtoe in BAU case and 5,399 in APS case in 2030.
East Asia can achieve energy savings of 1,574 Mtoe in 2030 or 23% of the BAU projection.
Macro Economic Indicators(GDP, Population, Oil Price, Transport)
Energy Conservation plan
During the 1st meeting held in Thailand, IEEJ requested to submit the assumptions template.
2010, 2020, 2030
GDP, Population, Transport (Car holds), Industrial Production Indices, Services (Floor Space)
Power Generation Mix, Electricity Trade, Thermal Efficiencies
We set up two cases , which are BAU and APS.
-Primary Energy Intensity (Energy/GDP)
-Detailed Energy Saving Target
As the result of gathering information from each county using this template,
Australia, Brunei, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Lao PDR, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam
Cambodia, Singapore, Malaysia
Electricity Trade is submitted as follows;
Import: Indonesia(2020), Lao PDR(by 2020), Thailand(by 2020), and Vietnam
Export: Myanmar(by 2020)
India (APS), Indonesia (BAU), New Zealand (BAU & APS), Philippines (BAU & APS), Thailand (APS by 2020) and Vietnam (APS) submitted.
GDP growth in East Asia region will gro by 4.1% per annum toward 2030 with the high growth in developing countries.
Assumption at one view – Macro Economic Indicators(Population)
Population in East Asia region will be slightly increased with the annual growth of 0.8%. Developed countries will be decreased while China and India will keep high growth.
Submitted assumption ↓
Real price remains unchanged toward 2030.
Nominal price will be increased with inflation toward 2030.
Assumption at one view – Macro Economic Indicators(Transport)
Motorization will grow in developing countries.
Car hold per capita will double in 2030.
Assumption at one view– Energy Conservation Plan(FEC)(1/2) Indicators(Transport)
The Assumption for energy conservation is different depending on countries. The plan of some countries are aggregated while some countries have a lot of information.
Assumption at one view– Energy Conservation Plan(FEC)(2/2) Indicators(Transport)
Assumption at one view– Power Generation Indicators(Transport)
Coal share will decrease in developed countries while the share will increase in developing countries. Coal share of some countries, Myanmar, Philippines and Vietnam, will at least double toward 2030.
Assumption at one view– Thermal Efficiency Indicators(Transport)
Thermal efficiency is improving in developed countries.
The improvement in developing countries is slow.
Assumption at one view– Electricity Trade Indicators(Transport)
Import countries: India, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Thailand, Vietnam
Export countries: China
Assumption at one view– Bio Fuels Indicators(Transport)
Bio fuel assumption is set into the model and the future demand will be 10 Mtoe in BAU case and 48 Mtoe in APS case.
India, China and Thailand will be major producers in East Asian.