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THORPEX/NCEP Update. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP. September 1, 2004. “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”. Overview. THORPEX Plans: Status NCEP Update – Focus on THORPEX Models Ensembles JCSDA Test Beds Summary. THORPEX Plans. Science Plan

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Thorpex ncep update

THORPEX/NCEP Update

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

Director, NCEP

September 1, 2004

“Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”


Overview

Overview

  • THORPEX Plans: Status

  • NCEP Update – Focus on THORPEX

    • Models

    • Ensembles

    • JCSDA

    • Test Beds

  • Summary


Thorpex plans

THORPEX Plans

  • Science Plan

    • Accepted by International Core Steering Committee in December ’03

    • Led by Mel Shapiro and Alan Thorpe

  • North American Plan

    • Ongoing

    • U.S. rep is David Parsons

    • Interagency and international

  • NOAA Plan

    • First draft complete

    • Led by Zoltan Toth; involves NOAA, NCAR, NASA, DoD/NRL, university participants, private sector


Thorpex plans cont

THORPEX Plans (cont.)

  • THORPEX Implementation Plan (TIP)

    • Ongoing international effort

    • Led by David Rogers

    • Involves Zoltan Toth, David Parsons and Mel Shapiro from U.S.

    • Next meeting in Beijing (September ‘04)

    • Big Items

      • International ensemble forecast system

      • Connection with AMMA (05-07)

      • Connection with International Polar Year (07-08) field program

      • Connection with GEOSS


Thorpex ncep update

NOAA SERVICE GOAL: ACCELERATE IMPROVEMENTS IN 3-14 DAY FORECASTSNOAA SCIENCE OBJECTIVE: REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS

TRADITIONAL NWP

Each discipline developed on its own

Disjoint steps in forecast process

Little or no feedback

One-way flow of information

Uncertainty in process ignored

NEW NWP

Sub-systems developed in coordination

End-to-end forecast process

Strong feedback among components

Two-way interaction

Error/uncertainty accounted for

SOCIOEC

SOCIOEC

SYSTEM

SYSTEM

INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE


Thorpex ncep update

DIRECT LINK BETWEEN NOAA THORPEX SCIENCE AND IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (NTSIP) ANDTHORPEX INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE PLAN & THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (TIP)

TIP

TIP – “OBSERVING SYSTEM”

TIP – “DATA ASSIMILATION…”

NTSIP

SOCIOEC

SYSTEM

CROSS-CUTTING ACTIVITIES

THORPEX

GLOBAL ENSEMBLE

(TIGGE)

TIP – “SOCIAL & ECONOMIC

APPLICATIONS”

TIP – “PREDICTABILITY &

DYNAMICAL PROCESSES”


Thorpex ncep update

NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART - LINKS

NTEC MEMBERS

J. Hayes, D-OST/NWS

J. Kimpel, OAR

M. Colton, D-ORA/NESDIS

NOAA Senior

Management

USWRP

Co-Chairs:

L. Uccellini & T. Killeen

ICSC, IPO

Chair: M. Beland

US Rep.: L. Uccellini

CHAIR

L. Uccellini, D-NCEP/NWS

NOAA Line

Offices

STAFF: Z. Toth, NTSIC Chair

M. Ralph & F. Toepfer, PPBES

NTSIC MEMBERS

Obs. Systems: J. Daniels (ORA), D. Emmitt (SWA), C. Velden (U. Wisc/SIMMS)

Data Assim: C. Bishop (NRL), L.-P. Riishojgaard (NASA/JCSDA)

Forecasting: J. Hansen (MIT), G. Kiladis (AL), S. Koch (FSL), J. Whitaker/T. Hamill (CDC)

SA Applications: R. Morss (NCAR), M. Ralph (ETL)

NOAA Res. Labs:

AL, CDC, ETL, FSL, ORA

ISSC

Co-Chairs:

M. Shapiro & A. Thorpe

NASSC

Co-Chairs:

D. Parsons & P. Gauthier

CHAIR

Z. Toth,EMC/NCEP

NOAA Joint Inst.:

JCSDA, CIMMS, SIP

NWS-NCEP Operational Implementations

F. Toepfer

Consistent with D. Rogers Memo of 7/9/2003, establishing NTEC & NTSIC

International Forecasting Activities

NOAA THORPEX Administrative Assistant


Thorpex ncep update

NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES

  • Based on NOAA THORPEX Science & Implementation Plan

  • Coordinated with US/NA/International activities - TIP

    • ONGOING APPLIED RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

    • PEER REVIEWED RESEARCH GRANT PROGRAM *

    • TRANSITION FROM RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS*

    • REAL TIME TESTING (DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS)*

    • INFRASTRUCTURE*

    • MANAGEMENT


Thorpex ncep update

NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES

  • PEER-REVIEWED RESEARCH GRANT PROGRAM:

    • Funded through NOAA THORPEX AO

    • Individual research studies

    • Collaborative projects

    • Balanced among 4 major research areas

  • CURRENT STATUS:

  • 12 grants distributed in competitive NOAA THORPEX 2004 AO process

  • 1)Observing System:1 satellite & 1 in-situ study

  • 2)Data Assimilation:Ensemble-based DA inter-comparison project

  • (4 studies, CDC, UM, NCAR, NRL, CS)

  • Adaptive obs (1 study)

  • 3)Forecast System:Model errors & ensembles (2 studies)

  • Adaptive modeling procedures (1 study)

  • 4)Socioeconomic Applic.:1 study (value of weather forecasts)

  • Cross-cutting Activities:1 study (OSSE method development)

  • PLAN:Initiate new THORPEX projects through NOAA Grants Program

  • Areas with special need: Model errors in DA & ensemble forecasting

  • Socioeconomic forecast applications (including stat. post-processing)


Thorpex ncep update

NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES

TRANSITION FROM RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS

Establish link with operations for each research study/project

Provide partner within NOAA for path to operations

Communicate operational requirements

Provide data/software access/support

Offer science consultation/advice

Facilitate collaboration/coordination among studies / within projects

Preferred form of work is through collaborative projects

Establish model errors & ensemble forecasting project?

Fund through set-aside fraction of research grant amount(20-33% of grants)

Currently only limited resources (100k for ATREC-related work in FY04)

Need to expand in order to link with all research grant studies/projects


Thorpex ncep update

NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES

REAL TIME TESTING (DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS)

GOAL:Test, demonstrate, and evaluate the new forecast process with

integrated, adaptive, and user controlled elements

TYPES OF PROJECTS(in hierarchical order):

THORPEX Observing System Tests (TOST)Limited scope, focus on observing system

THORPEX Regional Campaigns (TREC)Test integrated forecast process

THORPEX Demonstration ProjectsAs TREC but linked with other programs

THORPEX Global CampaignMajor demonstration near end of program

EXAMPLES:

AMMA (2005-07)Life cycle of tropical storms

2006, additional observations; test impact of data on NWP skill (low/mod. cost)

IPY(2007-09)Atmosph. component of IPY, obs. system test, polar-extratropical links

06/07 test new obs platforms (lower cost); 07/08 full demo period, higher cost

Olympics (’08,etc)Emphasis on social/economic applications

GEOSS(10yrs)Atmosph. component in GEOSS, prototype for integrated use of data


Thorpex ncep update

NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES

INFRASTRUCTURE

Operational Test Center (OTC; planned jointly withJCSDA)

Ensure access of researchers to operational forecast environment

a)Needed to support research grant program (research to operations transition)

b)Leverage off JCSDA Test Facility (with broader focus, incl. forecasting/applications beyond DA)

Jointly funded with JCSDA - Basic funding plus contributions from research grants

c)Provide computer facilities (on backup computer?), operatnl software, & technical support

d)Accessible through THORPEX & other peer reviewed grant programs

THORPEX Global Ensemble Prediction System (TIGGE or TGEPS)

Expand from successful implementation of NAEFS to include UK Metoffice for creation of multinational component of future TGEPS

Basic forecast support for demonstration projects, socio-economic applications, etc

North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS, jointly with Canadians)

THORPEX Data Base (TDB)

Establish THORPEX data base for national/international research

Store observational, numerical analysis, forecast, and application data

a)Establish & provide access to archive of operational and research data bases(NOMAD)

b)Data types: Observations, re-analysis, ensemble, applications, demo projects, etc

c)Funding through basic support plus contributions from research grants

Telecommunications

Transfer huge data sets for research & demo projects - GLORIAD


Thorpex ncep update

BUDGET HISTORY

FY02 – 150k – all from USWRP funds

50K: Aerosonde test

100K: Partial support for Shapiro as ISSC co-Chair

FY03 – 1.04M – all from USWRP funds

242K: Shapiro support (incl travel) and obs. focal point (Schlatter)

250K: Societal Impact Program (NCAR)

200K: THORPEX IPO and the IOC (150K+50K)

150K: Lenny Smith proposal on utilities' use of probabilistic forecasts

100K: To AOC for NA TRec

FY04 –2.4M – 1.2M from THORPEX, 1.2M from USWRP funds

1150K: THORPEX proposals

206K: Shapiro salary (171k) and travel (35k)

320K: NCAR Collaborative Program on the Soc. Impacts and Economic Benefits of Weather Info

220K: THORPEX IPO and IOC (170K+50K) – US Rep. to ICSC does not agree with this allocation

250K: To AOC for NA TRec

100K To NCEP for NA TRec analysis


Thorpex ncep update

BUDGET RECOMMENDATIONS – FY05

  • FY05 THORPEX Funding level (tentative) – $1.3 from FY04, plus $1M from FY05 increase

  • 1)Research Grant Program:

    • Continue funding 11 of 12 proposals from FY04$1050k^ (-75k)

    • Support unsolicited research (ens.-based DA, forecast appls, etc)$300k *

  • 2)Transition from Research to Operations

    • Interface with NWP research grant studies (1 contractor at EMC)$100k *

    • Subtotal$1.45M

  • 3)Infrastructure:

    • Operational Test Center (1 contractor at JCSDA)$100k *

    • NAEFS/TIGGE (2 contractors at NCEP)$200k^ (-100k)

    • THORPEX Data Base support(ETL/NCAR?)$100k *

    • Subtotal$400k

  • 4)Management:

    • WMO Trust Fund / IPO (partial support)$150k

    • Co-Chair of ISSC (M. Shapiro, partial support)$150k^ (-75k)

    • Overhead (NOAA THORPEX management, travel, etc)$150k *

    • Subtotal$450k

  • TOTAL$2.3

  • NOTES:

  • 300k not enough for viable AO:

    • 200k supplemental funds would make it possible to issue new AO

    • with emphasis on model errors & socioeconomic applications

  • If 1M increase is cut:Drop activities with *

    • Reduce funding level for ^ with amount in parenthesis


Thorpex linkages

THORPEX Linkages

  • Developing Linkages to the IPY

    • 07/08 field program (NA winter)

    • IPY focus on poles

    • THORPEX focus on tropics and middle latitudes

    • Hypotheses being developed related to forecast sensitivity to polar regions and/or Pacific Ocean and/or tropics

  • Mapping into GEOSS

    • Ongoing – THORPEX components (observations, data assimilation, modeling) map right into GEOSS


Thorpex ncep update

NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES

ONGOING APPLIED RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT:

Funded through base & other projects(not through THORPEX)

THORPEX needs to build stronger links with thesefor full mutual benefit

Observing System:ETL, NESDIS/ORA, FSL, AL;Link w. GEOSS

Data Assimilation:JCSDA, EMC, CDC, FSL

Forecast System:EMC, FSL, CDC, AL(Environmental Modeling Program)

Socioeconomic Applications:ETL, CDC,SIP(Collabor. w. NCAR), EMC

Cross-cutting Activities:Link with NAEFS, IPY, EMC, ETL, EM


Ncep update

NCEP Update

Focus on THORPEX-related Items

  • WRF implementation

    • NCEP running test with CMI and 2 dynamic cores

    • IOC for WRF CMI with the NMM by end of Sept, 2004


Ncep update1

NCEP Update

Focus on THORPEX-related Items

  • ESMF Status

    • Have successfully coupled NCEP global analysis with NCAR-NASA fvCAM using ESMF

    • Will couple GFS with GFDL MOM4 ocean model using ESMF by end of 2004


Ncep update2

NCEP Update

Focus on THORPEX-related Items

  • North American Ensemble Forecast System

    • Effort to leverage international resources to increase number of ensemble members

    • Canada and U.S. to share global ensemble runs

    • IOC in September to consist of 40 NCEP runs (10 runs x 4/day) and 16 Canadian runs (eventually will expand to 32) for a total of 56

    • First step in a 3 year effort

    • Will include output from the UK Met Office within 18 months


The ncep coupled climate forecast system cfs to be implemented august 24 2004

The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) (to be implemented August 24, 2004)

  • Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03)

  • T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical

  • Recent upgrades in model physics

    • Solar radiation (Hou, 1996)

    • cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998)

    • gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995)

    • cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997)

1.Atmospheric component

2.Oceanic component

  • GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998)

  • 1/3°´1° in tropics; 1°´1° in extratropics; 40 layers

  • Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N)

  • Free surface

3.Coupled model

  • Once-a-day coupling

  • Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology


Thorpex ncep update

Composite


Thorpex ncep update

Most Recent CFS

Latest run

shows a

more

moderate

warming

Latest CPC Forecast: weak El Nino conditions are expected to develop within the next three months


Ncep update3

NCEP Update

Focus on THORPEX-related Items

  • Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation


Thorpex ncep update

PARTNERS

NOAA/NCEP

Environmental

Modeling Center

NOAA/OAR

Office of Weather and

Air Quality

NASA/Goddard

Global Modeling &

Assimilation Office

US Navy

NOAA/NESDIS

Oceanographer of the Navy,

Office of Naval Research (NRL)

Office of Research &

AF Director of Weather

AF Weather Agency

Applications

US Air Force

JCSDA Partners


Organizational structure

Organizational Structure

NASA NOAA DOD

Joint Oversight Board of Directors:

NOAA NCEP: L. Uccellini (Chair)

Goddard ESD: F. Einaudi

NOAA ORA: M. Colton

NOAA OAR: J. Gaynor

Navy: S. Chang, R. McCoy

USAF: J. Lanicci, M. Farrar

Advisory

Panel

Rotating Chair

Joint Center Staff

Center Director: John LeMarshall

Executive Directors: Stephen Lord - NWS

Fuzhong Weng - NESDIS

L. P. Riishogjaard – NASA

Pat Phoebus - NRL

Technical Liaisons:

DAO – D. Dee

EMC – J. Derber

GMAO – M. Rienecker

OAR – A. Gasiewski

ORA – D. Tarpley

Navy – N. Baker

USAF – M. McAtee

Program Support: Ada Armstrong

George Ohring (NESDIS)

Science

Steering

Committee


Jcsda road map 2002 2010

JCSDA Road Map (2002 - 2010)

By 2010, a numerical weather prediction community will be empowered to effectively assimilate increasing amounts of advanced satellite observations

The radiances can be assimilated under all conditions with the state-of-the science NWP models

Resources:

NPOESS sensors ( CMIS, ATMS…)

GOES-R

OK

Deficiency

The CRTM includes scattering & polarization from cloud, precip and surface

Advanced JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model,

Advanced data thinning techniques

The radiances from advanced sounders will be used. Cloudy radiances will be tested under rain-free atmospheres, and more products (ozone, water vapor winds) are assimilated

AIRS, ATMS, CrIS, VIIRS, IASI, SSM/IS, AMSR, more products assimilated

Science Advance

A beta version of JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model (CRTM) transfer model will be developed, including non-raining clouds, snow and sea ice surface conditions

Improved JCSDA data assimilation science

The radiances of satellite sounding channels were assimilated into EMC global model under only clear atmospheric conditions. Some satellite surface products (SST, GVI and snow cover, wind) were used in EMC models

AMSU, HIRS, SSM/I, Quikscat,

AVHRR, TMI, GOES assimilated

Pre-JCSDA data assimilation science

Radiative transfer model, OPTRAN, ocean microwave emissivity, microwave land emissivity model, and GFS data assimilation system were developed

2002

2003

2008

2009

2010

2004

2005

2007


Jcsda fy03 04 major projects

JCSDA FY03-04 Major Projects

  • JCSDA is funding 18 extramural research projects to develop the state of-the-art satellite data assimilation system (e.g. uses of cloudy radiances from advanced satellite instruments, uses of satellite snow and vegetation products)

  • Preparation for uses of advanced satellite data such as METOP (IASI/AMSU/HSB), DMSP (SSM/IS) and EOS (Aqua AIRS, AMSR-E)

  • NCEP global data assimilation system implemented into NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) forecast system

  • JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model

  • Snow and sea ice emissivity models for improving uses of satellite microwave sounding data over high latitudes

  • Impact studies of POES AMSU, EOS AIRS, DMSP SSMIS, MODIS and COSMIC on NWP through EMC parallel experiments


Recent accomplishments of the jcsda

Recent Accomplishments of the JCSDA

  • Land emissivity model tested in NCEP operational models

    • Positive impacts with AMSU data over land (May,2002)

    • Operational implementation (October, 2002)

  • New Data used in NCEP operational models

    • SSM/I, TRMM microwave imager precipitation estimates

    • SSM/I, AMSU cloud liquid water

    • GOES-10 IR radiances

    • QuikSCAT data ( ~ 5 to 15% improvement in 10 m winds)

  • AIRS Assessment

    • AIRS data examined at several intervals over the course of one year

    • Initial tests indicate neutral impact in most forecast skill measures, slight positive impact in others, focused on 254 channels out of 2378

    • Full data assimilation implementation scheduled for 1st Quarter FY05

  • MODIS winds

    • Slight positive impact; implementation 1st Quarter FY05


Ncep update4

NCEP Update

Focus on THORPEX-related Items

NCEP Test Beds

  • Within NCEP

    • Joint Hurricane Test Bed (USWRP)

    • Hazardous Weather Test Bed (NOAA/OAR/NWS base)

    • Aviation Test Bed (FAA)

  • Affiliated with NCEP

    • WRF Developmental Test Bed (NCAR/FSL)

  • Being developed

    • Hydrometeorological Test Bed (USWRP)

    • Climate Test Bed (OGP)

    • WRF Operational Test Bed (TBD;NWS)


Summary

Summary

  • THORPEX planning is ongoing

    • Linked to NOAA PPBES

  • Field programs being linked to AMMA (05-07), IPY (07-08)

  • Attempting to balance THORPEX components: research, operational transitions, societal impact

  • NCEP components being aligned with THORPEX plans – more needs to be done (e.g., Test Bed activities)

  • Several Issues

    • Reallocation vs “new” money

    • Climate-weather linkage in THORPEX


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