“Sphere of R&D and innovation in Russia: analysis of the status and forecast of development”

1. ICSTI Headquarters International Conference “Scientific and Technological Innovation: National Experience and International Cooperation” 29-31 May, 2013 “Sphere of R&D and innovation in Russia: analysis of the status and forecast of development” Ms. M. Motova, Head of Sector, Ms. Т. Chinaeva, leading researcher Centre for Science Research and Statistics (CSRS), Federal Institution «Research Institute – Federal Research Center for Project Evaluation and Consulting Services» (SRI FRCEC), Ministry of education and science, Russian Federation

2. 1 Main problems determining the condition of R&D human resources • Reduction in R&D personnel • Decline of its quality • Widespread secondary employment • Decreased inflow of higher education graduates • Outflow of young personnel • Ageing of R&D personnel • Decline of the prestige of research activities • Break in the succession of generations

3. Stagesof reduction in R&D personnel 2

4. 3 Main problems of funding of S&T activities Lack of a complex scientifically based funding system Poor management of cash flows Shortage of funds • Consequences: • Crisis in human resources • Insecurity of operationcosts • Low level of remuneration • Consequences: • Lack of interrelationship between funding and output • Impossibility to ensure full-value activities of R&D institutions

5. 4 Domestic R&D expenditure:Dynamics and short-term forecast

6. 5 Gross domestic expenditure on R&D by source of funds: 2011/2010

7. 6 R&D funds by main source of funding(increase against the previous year at comparable prices) Own funds of organizations Budget funds Funds from the business enterprise sector

8. 7 Average salary in R&D(2012 – estimate, 2013-2015 – forecast)

9. 8 Economic parameters of the progress of the R&D sector: 2015 * * Osnovnye parametry sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo razvitija Rossijskoj Federatsii do 2020–2030 godov/ Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitija. Moscow, 2008.

10. 9 Forecast for R&D expenditure As % of GDP 2015as % to 2011 I – 1.1 II – 3.2 III – 4.8 IV – 1.3 1276,1

11. 10 R&D personnel and average salary forecast: 2015 2011 R&D personnel (thousand) – 735,3 Average salary(thousand) – 28,4

12. 11 Growth of domestic R&D expenditure by source of funds(2015 to 2011 at comparable prices)

13. 12 Intramural R&D expenditure by source of funds 2015 Inertial scenario Export-oriented (energy and raw materials) scenario Innovative scenario Extrapolation forecast

14. 13 Forecast for appropriations for S&T 2012 compared to 2008(-fold) – 1,4

15. 14 Problem: Deformation of the age-specific structure of R&D personnel and ageing of research teams Researchers by age group (per cent) Source: calculated by CSRS basing on Russia’s Rosstat data Despite some increase in the number of researchers aged below 40, speaking of it as a steady trend (especially during the crisis) is still too early.

16. 15 Calculation of specialities’ rating based on an expert survey The rating was calculated on the basis of: • the proportion of experts who had mentioned the demand for training of candidates/doctors of science for this speciality in the total number of experts believing that this speciality is related to a surveyed priority area; • an average mark reflecting the relationship of this speciality with a surveyed priority area.

17. 16 Forecast for graduates from postgraduate and doctoral studies with dissertations defended by field of science and technology

18. 17 Forecast for enrolment of postgraduate and doctoral studentsby field of science and technology

19. Thanks for attention