1 / 12

EM at the SWFSC

EM at the SWFSC . present (document) → future (presentation). Three Ecosystems. Southern Ocean (SO) Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) California Current (CC). Some Model Types FOOSA – not an acronym (ask me later) SEAPODYM – Spatial Ecosystem and Populations Dynamics Model

jeanne
Download Presentation

EM at the SWFSC

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. EM at the SWFSC present (document) → future (presentation)

  2. Three Ecosystems • Southern Ocean (SO) • Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) • California Current (CC) • Some Model Types • FOOSA – not an acronym (ask me later) • SEAPODYM – Spatial Ecosystem and Populations Dynamics Model • EwE – Ecopath with Ecosim • NPZ – Nutrient, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton Model • IBM – Individual-based Model • SS2 – Stock-synthesis 2

  3. SO – MRM(s) 3 million tons / 15 SSMUs = ? FOOSA Fishing Option 1 Fishing Option 3 1 – P(depleting penguins) Realized Catch / Allocated Catch G. Watters et al.

  4. SO – Needs • condition model(s) on “data” • provide scientific support for a “staged development” of the fishery • manage risk while allowing for the simultaneous opportunity to increase catches and improve advice • advise on feedback management strategies • develop methods for effective communication

  5. ETP – Range of Models Extended Pella-Tomlinson SEAPODYM Carrying Capacity 3.0 K (millions) 1.0 EwE 1960 1980 2000 7.5 PBR (thousands) 2.5 0.6 0.8 Recovery Factor (RF) G. Watters et al.

  6. Complex model of ecological system that includes fishing, physical forcing, etc. Data collection Implementation Simpler model that provides an assessment of conditions in the ecological system Model that provides an assessment of conditions in the socio-economic system Rules that determine what actions are taken in response to the assessments Performance measures ETP – MSE Proposal G. Watters et al.

  7. ETP – Needs • connect operating models and assessment models • advise on consequences of management actions (including status quo) • communicate connectedness between tunas and dolphins (and other ecosystem considerations)

  8. Reproductive egg LargeCiliate Non-feeding C1 N1-2 dormant C5 N3 Small Flagellate Hetero Dino N4-6 C5 feeding Stores lipids C1 C4 C3 C2 Hetero Bacteria Auto Bacteria Auto Dino Small Diatoms Large Diatoms Start to migrate DOM Iron Silica NO3+NH4 CC – Bottom of the Web Production or Biomass Prey Field NPZ Temperature Observations or GCM IBM A. Leising et al.

  9. 1975 - 2005 CC – Simpler Links SS2 Path Analysis – Conceptual Model Shortbelly Rockfish Fit to murre food habits Krill, Rockfish, & Seabird Production Indicator of Environmental Condition (greater values mean more upwelling and lower SST) Biomass Consumption Models 239k t/yr MF ? J. Barlow, J. Field, & B. Wells et al.

  10. CC – More Complexity EwE Increasing trophic level J. Field et al.

  11. CC – Needs • connect the dots between our various pieces of work (add sea lions?) • strengthen ocean modeling/observing component • address specific management issues – context & perspective will come along for the ride • evaluate ecosystem indicators and contribute to IEAs • coordinate with NWFSC

  12. General Needs • We need to better integrate (not standardize or mega-size) our efforts, with an aim towards • advising management (e.g., evaluating strategies for allocation and climate change) • communicating effectively (e.g., IEAs, risks, and tradeoffs) • maintaining flexibility to address topical issues (e.g., HABs and squid invasions) • “No data, no EAM” – our efforts will be improved by collecting more/better data (but requirements vary by application) • (more mateys, hearties, etc.)

More Related