The Arab Spring

1. The Arab Spring Education and Regime Change

2. Introduction Revolution trends: • end of colonization in 60s and Asia experiences both interstate conflict such as Korean War/Vietnam as well as intrastate violence: Khmer Rouge. • Then in 80s and 90s we see Latin America experience revolutions and guerrilla movements with rise of FARQ in Columbia, Shining Path in Peru, etc. • Then end of Soviet Union and implosion of Eastern Europe, especially in Balkans. • Then in early 2000s we see violent separatist guerrilla movements turn into peaceful revolutions such as Orange revolution, people’ putsch etc.

5. MENA states Bahrain Egypt Tunisia Syria Libya Morocco Yemen Oman UAE Qatar Saudi Arabia Jordan Algeria Iran Kuwait

6. Exceptional Nature of MENA states all authoritarian, both traditional monarchies and dictatorships which used their petroleum sales to solidify governmental control by encouraging a symbiotic relationship between the government and the military as well as eliminating international interference in their internal affairs due to increased international oil dependency

8. Trends in War • While in the global arena there was close to 200 wars ongoing in 1990, however, in the MENA states, at the very height of inter and intra-state war was only around 75.

9. Organization of Presentation • Review of events of Arab Spring • Overview of premise and initial results of research • Future aspects of the research and limitations • Q&A

10. Tunisia • December 17 2010 Tunisian fruit vendor, Mohammed Bouazizi is arrested and his cart confiscated for selling vegetables without a permit. After being humiliated, and poorly treated at a municipal office, he sets himself afire. • Massive protests spread to the capital Tunis, with demands for the resignation of long-time dictator Ben Ali, who has ruled since 1987. • Ben Ali steps down in mid-January and interim president FouadMebezza is inaugurated on January 15th. The constitution requires presidential elections to be held no longer than 45-60 days after the inauguration of an interim president but these elections did not happen until the fall.

11. Egypt • January 25th, tens of thousands of protestors marched to central Cairo in a “Day of Rage”. Over the course of the month, over 250,000 protestors had gathered in Tahir square, calling for the resignation of Hosni Mubarak, the longtime dictator since 1981. • This protest and overturning of a regime were unusual due to the widespread of use of Facebook and Twitter to organize, which also allowed for real time updates to foreign media of the events in Egypt even while foreign reporters were being attacked and expelled by the Egyptian government.

12. The World Watches Video and massive media coverage of the events in Tahir Square allowed the world to see the response of the government to popular demonstrations

13. Egypt cont • Like Ben Ali, Mubarak used both concessions and wide-spread violence in a vain attempt to re-establish control and order. • It was not until the military switched sides that Mubarak was forced to step down, and the Egyptian military took control, promising to hold new presidential elections, however, elections were not held until the fall after demonstrators returned to Tahir Square in massive numbers.

14. Egyptian elections • The election process was dramatic and violent, with the military council enacting emergency laws, postponing elections, and prohibited spontaneous demonstrations, until internal and external pressures forced the election process in November, with the Muslim Brotherhood with an victory in December

15. Spread of Arab Spring • Algeria and Morocco: police/military remained loyal to the state, but concessions were made: the emergency rule in place since 1992 was lifted and in Morocco a popular referendum to limit the power of the Moroccan monarchy was passed at the end of June 2011.

16. Spread of Arab Spring • Qatar: concessions on cost of bread and wages • Jordan: King sacked his parliament • Saudi Arabia: concessions of cost of food/repression

17. Spread of Arab Spring Bahrain: This drew a lot of international attention due to the sheer violence and complacency of West after vehemently supporting the demonstrators in other countries. Bahrain is home to the Formula One race (cancelled) and the US Fifth Fleet. The silence of the White House on the violent repression of protestors caused many to question the sincerity of the Obama administration’s dedication to democratic movements.

18. Bahrain Pearl Roundabout where protestors congregated

19. Troops Move in The Arab League sent in troops to help the royal family forcibly put down the protests, and the Pearl Roundabout was razed.

20. Libya • The most infamous of all of the “Springs” Libya is an story of both purely internal demands for democracy and international interference to remove a leader from power. • Muammar Gaddafi has long been a pariah in the international arena and ruled since the 1980s. • Unlike other protests, here the protests (began on Feb 17) did not remain peaceful but rather took on a military bent in the aftermath of the violent repression of the Bahrainian revolts.

21. Libya cont • As fighting spread across the country, Gaddafi hired western African mercenaries to attack the local population and employed full-warfare against the domestic population, even threatening the use of nerve agents and chemical warfare. • the rebels took control of towns and gained international recognition (National Transitional Council with the former Secretary of Justice, Mustafa Abdul Jalil, who has defected due to the use of force against civilians). • refugees fled from Libya to neighboring Tunisia and Italy. The large number of migrant workers also fled-flooding the ports and airports and overwhelming the transportation system.

22. Libya, the international response • A no-fly zone was enacted by the Security Council on March 17, to restrict Gaddafi from using his air force (resolution 1973) • Vote was controversial and resolution was enforced by member states of the UN with NATO as the commanding organization. • Gaddafi’s home city, Sirte, fell on October 20th, and Gaddafi was killed in an brutal fashion. • The NTC announced the liberation of Libya on October 23

23. Yemen • On March 20, 2011, Ali Abdullah Saleh fired his entire cabinet to try to appease protestors. Signed over power to his deputy on April 23 but refused to hand over power, after ruling for 33 years (took power in 1978). • Saleh was injured in a rocket attack, sustained massive burns and was treated in Saudi Arabia. • He did not formally step down until last week and new elections have not yet been held. Saleh'sdeputy Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi is the only candidate, in the future elections.

24. Syria • Massive repression and death in the thousands as Bashir Al-Assad attempts to hold onto power. • Cities of Homs, Damascus, and Hama saw the most intense fighting and deaths in the early days. The Syrian opposition received recognition by many in the world in 2013. • Complications: Syria/Israeli borders. Role of Syria in Lebanon, and the Lebanon/Israeli borders (role of Hezbollah), floods of refugees into southern Turkey.

25. 2013 • Back to Tahir Square (2012-2013) • Tunisia: Assassination of _Interior Minister Ali Larayedh was charged last week with forming a new government following the resignation of prime minister HamadiJebali, after his plan for a non-partisan government failed. Jebaliannounced the plan on February 6, the day that leftist opposition ChokriBelaid was gunned down outside his home in an assassination that exacerbated a long-running political crisis • Syria opposition recognized

26. Arab Spring Civil Conflict States Stable States • Bahrain • Egypt • Tunisia • Syria • Libya • Yemen • Oman • UAE • Qatar • Saudi Arabia • Jordan • Algeria • Iran • Kuwait • Morocco

27. So Why did the Arab Spring Occur? Variables of the Study

28. Conflict Conflict in this study is examination of civil conflict Both civil war and intrastate conflict such as protests movements and labor strikes As civil wars and protest movements have been virtually invisible over past 20 years (notable difference is Algeria which just emerged from a generation long civil war), political activism and expression has been successfully repressed for generations. However, as governments liberalized their economies, the only real form of political expression have been labor strikes.

29. Role of Unemployment Flat unemployment in Egypt since 1998 High of 11.2% in 2005 Dropped to 9.2% in 2009

30. Youth unemployment risen steadily over 20 years High of 34.1% in 2005 Dropped to 24.8% in 2007

31. Issue isn’t unemployment but whois unemployed

32. Preliminary results • Education seems to have limited effect on the likelihood of revolt occurring. • Revolution seems most likely in countries where sharp increases to access in education have occurred within the last decade. Countries where sharp increases in States with educational access increases occurring previous to 2000, seem to have maintained a steady and/or flat rate of both enrollments and literacy, allowing for greater control/suppression of expectations.

33. Preliminary Results • In states where educational access has sharply increased in the last decade ,coupled with a threshold of 35% unequal wealth distribution, all countries experienced Days of Rage • In states where literacy rates remained under 80%, Gini coefficients reached 40%, and were hybrid regimes, and educational spending as all experienced regime changeover except Algeria.

34. Limitations of study • Most statistics are not gathered independently but rather are reported voluntarily by governments. As such for such closed societies, statistics are scarce. Also there is the potential of under-reported or over-inflated numbers by governments. • Revolutions are complex events, where events may begin as a peaceful revolt and then segue into violence such as in Libya. • In research design, dummy variables for country years need to be included.

35. The End Thank you For Attending!!!!