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Allocation of Unidentified Gas Statement. 16th May 2011. Outline. Introductions Presentation of the AUGS High level plan Consultations/presenting to industry Allocation of Unidentified Gas Understanding of the problem Proposed methodology Summary / Q&A Future Meetings AOB.

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  • Introductions

  • Presentation of the AUGS

    • High level plan

    • Consultations/presenting to industry

    • Allocation of Unidentified Gas

      • Understanding of the problem

      • Proposed methodology

    • Summary / Q&A

  • Future Meetings

  • AOB

What is gl
What is GL?

  • GL is a world class technical

  • assurance and consulting company and

  • leading ship classification society.

  • Three business areas:

  • Maritime Services

  • Renewables – GL Garrad Hassan

  • Oil And Gas – GL Noble Denton

Gl noble denton our heritage
GL Noble Denton - Our Heritage

Originally formed as the Research and Development Group of British Gas

With the re-structuring of British Gas our name changed to BG Technology and acquired Transco Engineering Services & Transco Technical Training in 1997

In 2001 we acquired Risx and Stoner Associates Inc. and became Advantica

In 2007 Advantica was acquired by Germanischer Lloyd

GL Noble Denton has become a leading global advisor to the Oil & Gas industry

Oil & Gas assets

3,000 Employees in35 Countries







Subsea Installations


Offshore Structures

Onshore Facilities
























Saudi Arabia








Competencies along the whole asset life cycle

GL Noble Denton comprises experts from:

Technical Assurance

  • Verification, Certification and Classification

  • Industrial Inspection

Marine Consulting & Operations

  • Marine Warranty

  • Marine Consulting, Vetting & Surveys, Marine Operations

  • Marine Casualty Investigation

  • Dynamic Positioning

Advanced Engineering & Consulting

  • Adv. Analysis & Eng. Consulting

  • Field Development Planning

  • Testing Services

  • Asset Integrity Mgmt / Optimization

  • Safety & Risk

  • Software Solutions

Project Execution

  • Project Management

  • Design

  • Transportation & Installation

  • Due Diligence

  • Construction Monitoring

Conflicts of interest
Conflicts of Interest Oil & Gas industry

  • GL Noble Denton is independent of all UK industry bodies

  • GL Noble Denton have not previously been involved with this particular unidentified gas problem

  • One of our core values is to be “the most respected international technical advisor and trusted partner” for all our clients

  • Our objectives are simple – to devise a methodology that is unbiased, meets the requirements of the industry bodies and is approved by the UNCC

Overview of project plan

Overview of Project Plan Oil & Gas industry

High level plan
High Level Plan Oil & Gas industry

Presenting to the uncc
Presenting to the UNCC Oil & Gas industry

The AUGS covers

  • Adherence to AUGE Guidelines terms of reference

  • Proposed topics for unidentified gas and their status

  • Data provision status/issues

  • AUGE Methodology

    • Reasoning

    • Assumptions

    • Data Used

    • Issues/recommendations going forward

    • For incomplete aspects of the methodology (e.g. pending data) the AUGS contains details of the remaining steps to complete it

  • Consultation questions and responses as appropriate

Reporting progress
Reporting Progress Oil & Gas industry

  • Primarily through the main UNCC presentations and publications of AUGS

  • There is also visibility of activities from data requests and responses to consultation questions

  • In addition, brief progress reports will be provided via JO website

Consultations Oil & Gas industry

Industry Bodies


  • GL Noble Denton

  • present answers via

  • AUGS

  • Industry meetings

  • JO website

GL Noble Denton

Industry Bodies


  • Collate

  • Compare vs criteria

  • Investigate / assess

  • Generate responses

  • Update methodology

  • Update AUGS

Questions/issues can be raised via [email protected]

Unidentified gas understanding of the problem
Unidentified Gas – Understanding of the Problem Oil & Gas industry

  • The AUGE

    • Robust and repeatable algorithm

    • Estimates of Unidentified Gas that are

      • Accurate

      • Unbiased

    • Unidentified Gas estimation is the core of the consultation/publication process

Unidentified gas statement of the problem
Unidentified Gas – Statement of the Problem Oil & Gas industry

  • UK gas market sectors

    • Daily Metered (DM)

    • Non-Daily Metered Larger Supply Points (NDM LSP)

    • Smaller Supply Points (SSP)

    • Threshold between SSP and LSP is 73,200kWh pa

Unidentified gas statement of the problem1
Unidentified Gas – Statement of the Problem Oil & Gas industry

  • Additional factors:

    • LDZ Shrinkage

      • Leakage

      • Own Use Gas

      • Transporter-Responsible Theft

    • Unidentified Gas

    • Both unknown, both have to be estimated

Unidentified gas statement of the problem2
Unidentified Gas – Statement of the Problem Oil & Gas industry

  • Unidentified Gas

    • Unregistered and Shipperless sites

    • Independent Gas Transporter CSEP Setup and Registration Delays

    • Corrections to the shrinkage estimate

    • Shipper-responsible theft

    • Potential additional sources of Unidentified Gas

      • LDZ offtake meter errors

      • Supply point meter errors

      • These only apply if there is a long-term metering bias

Unidentified gas statement of the problem3
Unidentified Gas – Statement of the Problem Oil & Gas industry

  • Calculation of Unidentified Gas

    • Understand process flow

      • Location of UG at each stage of the calculation

    • Calculate UG at optimal process stage

      • Directly

      • By subtraction

    • Time frame covered by individual UG calculations

      • Daily (aggregate results to annual level for UNC table)

      • Monthly (aggregate results to annual level for UNC table)

      • Annual

Unidentified gas statement of the problem4
Unidentified Gas – Statement of the Problem Oil & Gas industry

  • Previous UNC Modification Proposals

    • 194/194A

      • Gave framework for quantifying Unidentified Gas

      • Relied on set percentages of RbD or set values

    • 228/228A

      • Populated framework with set percentages (228) or set values (228A)

      • No provision for year-on-year updates at this stage

    • Potential areas for improvement

      • Both carry assumption that all or most of RbD is Unidentified Gas

      • Recognition of allocation algorithm error

Unidentified gas statement of the problem5
Unidentified Gas – Statement of the Problem Oil & Gas industry

  • The AUGE is independent and impartial

  • Modification 229 allows UG estimates to be updated every year

    • No UNC amendments required

  • Estimates from the AUGE circulated and agreed prior to implementation

Unidentified gas the solution1
Unidentified Gas – The Solution Oil & Gas industry

Daily Allocation Process

  • Based on End User Categories

  • Trained on metered data

    • Minimum 3900 Small NDM, 1600 Large NDM supply points

    • 2010 analysis actually used a total of 12715 supply points

  • Estimates raw (metered demand) – i.e. no Unidentified Gas

  • Scaled up to meet LDZ load (minus Shrinkage and DM load)

  • Scaling process introduces Unidentified Gas

    • Value unknown

    • Split between EUCs by AQ

Unidentified gas the solution2
Unidentified Gas – The Solution Oil & Gas industry

Composition of allocation estimate

  • Actual EUC load

  • Model error (can be positive or negative)

  • Unidentified Gas (always positive)

  • Each EUC total known, but composition unknown

Unidentified gas the solution3
Unidentified Gas – The Solution Oil & Gas industry

Final calculation steps

  • Aggregate to SSP and NDM LSP level

    • SSP corresponds to one EUC

    • NDM LSP is the sum of the remaining EUCs

    • This is the basis for initial (deemed) load allocation

  • Actual NDM LSP (monthly) meter reads become available

  • Apply Reconciliation by Difference

    • NDM LSP load now accurate

    • Model error eliminated

    • SSP allocation is now actual SSP load plus Unidentified Gas

    • SSP/UG split unknown

Unidentified gas the solution5
Unidentified Gas – The Solution Oil & Gas industry

Unidentified Gas Estimation

  • Location known, UG accumulated into one figure

  • Estimate should now be made

  • Recommended approach – calculate each component directly

  • Calculation granularity is part of analysis

Unidentified gas data requirements
Unidentified Gas – Data Requirements Oil & Gas industry

  • Site AQs (for all DM, LSP and SSP sites)

  • Actual daily loads (DM sites)

  • Profiled daily loads (from meter reads for LSP NDM sites)

  • Deemed daily loads (LSP NDM and SSP sites)

  • RbD quantities

  • LDZ Shrinkage (calculated)

  • Plus data for

    • Unregistered and shipperless sites

    • IGT CSEP setup and registration delays

    • LDZ shrinkage initial and final estimates

    • Theft (including information on anti-theft initiatives)

  • Unidentified gas unregistered shipperless sites
    Unidentified Gas – Unregistered/Shipperless Sites Oil & Gas industry

    • Unregistered Sites

      • Opening meter reading taken when site is registered

      • If this is not zero, Unregistered gas has been taken

    • Shipperless Sites

      • Closing meter reading taken when site is unregistered

      • Opening meter reading taken when site is registered

      • If they differ, Shipperless gas has been taken

      • This gets assigned to SSP sector via RbD

    • Potential impact of Mod 369

    Unidentified gas unregistered shipperless sites1
    Unidentified Gas – Unregistered/Shipperless Sites Oil & Gas industry

    • Unregistered Sites – Shipper Activity/Orphaned

      • Data has been requested splitting these into “meter”/”no meter” categories

      • Determine proportion with meter that actually flow gas before they are registered

      • Analyse all opening meter readings to derive percentage non-zero

      • Apply this proportion to “meter” group

      • All sites in this group are more than 12 months old, hence unregistered consumption = AQ

    • Unregistered Sites – Sites Created <12 Months

      • Proportion flowing gas the same as for Shipper Activity/Orphaned sites

      • Assume that rates of new sites getting MPRNs and sites with MPRNs becoming registered are both steady

      • Sites will, on average, have been taking gas for half the time period in question

      • Report currently semi-monthly, hence average time taking gas is one month

    Unidentified gas unregistered shipperless sites2
    Unidentified Gas – Unregistered/Shipperless Sites Oil & Gas industry

    • Shipperless Sites – Passed To Shipper

      • Only sites visited after being shipperless for more than 12 months are reported

      • More sites will have been shipperless for less than 12 months- those flowing gas are still contributing to Unidentified Gas

      • Relevant data requested from Xoserve - all shipperless sites (including <12 months) - all >12 month sites visited (not just those found to be flowing gas)

      • Calculate “still flowing gas” rate from site visit data

      • Apply to <12 month sites

      • Carry out final calculation - all >12 month sites in report have been flowing gas for full 12 months - the <12 months sites still flowing gas will have been doing so for an average of 6 months

    • Shipperless Sites – Shipper Specific Report

      • Calculations as above

    Unidentified gas unregistered shipperless sites3
    Unidentified Gas – Unregistered/Shipperless Sites Oil & Gas industry

    • No Activity

      • Sites currently being processed

      • These will end up in one of the other categories

      • Split between those categories pro-rata before calculations carried out

    • Legitimately Unregistered

      • These sites are believed to have no meter

      • Hence they do no contribute to Unidentified Gas

    Unidentified gas igt csep registration delays
    Unidentified Gas – IGT CSEP Registration Delays Oil & Gas industry

    • Within CSEPs, sites cannot take gas without being registered

    • UG from this source comes from unregistered CSEPs only

      • Entire network not registered on Xoserve system

    • Regular meetings held with IGTs

    • Report on statistics

      • 32000 CSEPs

      • Approximately 1200 are currently unregistered

      • Down from 3000 in 2009

    • Get average CSEP composition from known (registered) CSEPs

    • Apply to unknown population to estimate consumption

    Unidentified gas shipper responsible theft
    Unidentified Gas – Shipper-Responsible Theft Oil & Gas industry

    • Data available for

      • Detected theft

      • Alleged theft

    • These are high and low limits for true theft

    • Two-yearly meter inspections ensure that unknown theft (ie theft that exists but has never been alleged) is limited

    • Changes in theft detection rates when shipper initiatives take place can be used to estimate likely value of true theft between upper and lower limits

    • It is recognised that true theft is very difficult to pinpoint

    • Final value will be one agreed to be reasonable by all parties

    Unidentified gas shrinkage error
    Unidentified Gas – Shrinkage Error Oil & Gas industry

    • Difference between initial estimate and final estimate of shrinkage

    • Can be positive or negative

    • Shrinkage calculated as defined in UNC

    • Most accurate models available are used

      • National Leakage Tests

      • Own Use Gas model

      • Standard Theft assumptions

    • Final shrinkage values recalculated after the event and RbD credited

    • Hence error of initial (pre-year) estimate already accounted for in process

    Unidentified gas meter error
    Unidentified Gas – Meter Error Oil & Gas industry

    Metering takes place

    • At LDZ offtakes

    • At Supply Meter Points

      • DMs – daily

      • NDM LSP – usually monthly

      • SSP – less frequently

    • Meter errors only have an impact over time if they carry a long term aggregate bias

    • Potential effects can be positive or negative

    • If present, this is a correction to RbD rather than Unidentified Gas

    Unidentified gas meter error1
    Unidentified Gas – Meter Error Oil & Gas industry

    • SSP meters use a rubber diaphragm

      • These can warp over time

      • They are set up to be unbiased on average over their 20-year lifespan

      • SSP metering does not affect Unidentified Gas calculation anyway

    • LSP and larger meters use metal components

      • Regular maintenance

      • No warping over time

      • Therefore no long-term bias from this source

    • Meter error can be discounted from analysis

    • Backs up conclusions drawn in previous UNC Mods

    Unidentified gas unknown sites
    Unidentified Gas – Unknown Sites Oil & Gas industry

    • Sites that are taking gas that

      • Are not registered with a shipper

      • Do not even have a MPRN

    • These are unknown to the Xoserve system

    • Data has been requested on this subject

    Summary q a
    Summary – Q/A Oil & Gas industry

    • Any other areas of UG to consider?

    • Clarifications/Questions?

    • Can raise further questions/issues post meeting via [email protected]

    Thank you for your attention Oil & Gas industry