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THE MYSTERY OF UNACCOUNTED FOR GAS

…. The Mystery of Unaccounted for Gas Presented by Dr. Faizullah Abbasi, MD, SSGC. THE MYSTERY OF UNACCOUNTED FOR GAS. Dr. Faizullah Abbasi MD SSGC. Pakistan Energy Conference April 12, 2011-Islamabad. 11 APRIL 2011.

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THE MYSTERY OF UNACCOUNTED FOR GAS

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  1. …. The Mystery of Unaccounted for Gas Presented by Dr. Faizullah Abbasi, MD, SSGC THE MYSTERY OF UNACCOUNTED FOR GAS Dr. Faizullah Abbasi MD SSGC Pakistan Energy Conference April 12, 2011-Islamabad 11 APRIL 2011

  2. Wouldyou hire this man as your detective if it is the …

  3. SSGC INFRASTRUCTURE Quetta Zarghun Sibi Pirkoh Pesh Bogi SNGPL transmission line Loti Sui Balochistan Jacobabad Shikarpur Sukkur Mazarani Hasan Miano Larkana Dadu Sawan Zamzama Kadanwari Bhit Nawabshah Sindh Hyderabad Sari Karachi FJFC Badin

  4. GAS FLOW CHART POD CUSTOMERS Industrial CMSs SMS TBS POD Commercial Meters SMS TBS POD Domestic Meters SMS TBS POD Transmission pipelines Distribution Supply Mains Distribution Network

  5. Inspector Clouseau will not solve the mystery of UFG till he gets into the heart of the matter. Will the Case get complex and intricate? Let’s find out….

  6. WHAT IS UNACCOUNTED FOR GAS OR UFG? UFG TOTAL GAS PURCHASE TOTAL GAS SALE 7

  7. HOW IS UFG CALCULATED? UFG INDUSTRIAL SALE (3,863 Customers) + GAS PURCHASED FROM 16 GAS FIELDS COMMERCIAL SALE (24,156 Customers) + DOMESTIC SALE (2,219,138 Customers)

  8. UFG – THE ARITHMETIC TRICK - 1 UFG 5 MMCF i.e. 5% BULK/POWER 50 MMCF GAS PURCHASE 100 MMCF DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM 45 MMCF

  9. UFG – THE ARITHMETIC TRICK - 2 UFG 5 MMCF i.e. 10% BULK/POWER 0 MMCF GAS PURCHASE 50 MMCF DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM 45 MMCF

  10. SSGC - YEAR WISE % BULK SALE TREND %AGE 11

  11. UFG IN GAS SALES MIX - POWER MMCF (7.95%) (18.30%) (26.15%) (2.31%) (9.6 %) (13.19%) (16.82%) (5.5%)

  12. UFG IN GAS SALES MIX – BULK POWER MMCF 1,250,000 MW Power (4.5%) (18.30%) (29.57%) (2.31%) (13.19%) (9.6 %) (16.82%) (5.5%)

  13. FIRST CLUE: FINANCIAL IMPACT OF UFG • A Quick Math Calculation • SSGC: Annual UFG = 35,010 MMCF (7.95%) • SSGC: Per day UFG = 96 MMCFD • Avg. Cost/MMCF = Rs 221,690 • Financial Cost of Lost Gas (UFG) • 35,010 (MMCF) x Rs 221,690 (Gas price) • = Rs 7,761 million • (All figures for FY-2009-10)

  14. CONSEQUENCES OF HIGH UFG – PLOT THICKENS • Reduced Gas Availability for Power Sector. • Penalty by Regulator (Rs. 934 Million in 2009-10) • Environmental Pollution Equivalent to 9.135 million Tonnes of CO2. (13% of the total emissions of Pakistan).

  15. GENERAL PERCEPTION ABOUT UFG ALL UFG IS THEFT ALL THEFT IS UFG BUT ALL UFG IS NOT THEFT !

  16. ONGOING EFFORTS TO CONTROL GAS THEFT • Efforts focused on controlling gas theft. • Established theft control department. • Installed Cyber locks & EVCs. • Dedicated lines for bulk & CNG customers. • Theft by non-customers.

  17. These ongoing exercises have uncovered some theft cases .… Yet the UFG has increased!

  18. UFG IN SSGC – THE LAST TEN YEARS

  19. TRACKING DOWN SUSPECTS: UFG CLASSIFICATION UFG NON TECHNICAL (THEFT) COMPLEX/ UNCONTROLLABLE TECHNICAL (OTHER FACTORS) CONTROLLABLE

  20. 30th September 1988 Hyderabad Incident INCIDENTS LEADING TOWARDS OTHER CAUSES OF UFG • 30th September 1988 Hyderabad Incident • Normal daily gas purchase of Hyderabad = 30 MMCFD. • Normal daily sale of Industrial & Commercial Customers = 8 MMCFD. • During curfew all industrial & commercial units were closed. • Logically, Purchase should have been 30-8=22 MMCFD. IT DID NOT HAPPEN • But actual Purchase on following days was 29 MMCFD-------------------------------------------------WHY?

  21. To dig deeper, Inspector Clouseau heads off to Hazara Colony, Hyderabad….

  22. CHARACTERISTICS OF HAZARA COLONY HAZARA COLONY • MANAGEABLE AREA • TOTAL LENGTH OF THE LOOP = 3 Kms. • TOTAL NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS= 298. PRS ZEAL PAK TM KHAN ROAD Fatah Chowk HALI ROAD TBS Site 50 Psig LINE DIAGRAM OF THE AREA OF STUDY

  23. PRESSURE REGULATING STATION (PRS) AND THE BULK METER FEEDING HAZARA COLONY HYDERABAD

  24. UFG AT DIFFERENT PRESSURES HAZARA COLONY HYDERABAD 25

  25. IMPACT OF OVERHEAD LEAKAGE RECTIFICATION

  26. IMPACT OF METER CHANGE

  27. UFG CONTRIBUTING FACTORS PURCHASE VOLUME 42.17 MCF/DAY SALE VOLUME 20.38 MCF/DAY TOTAL UFG VOLUME 21.79 MCF/DAY 28

  28. INTERIOR SINDH UFG STATUS (1982-83 to 2009-10) MMCF Rehabilitation alongwith Augmentation & Pressure Profiling Increasing Trend Despite Pressure Profiling Without Augmentation Introduction of Pressure Profiling

  29. KARACHI UFG STATUS (1989-90 to 2009-10) MMCF Introduction of Pressure Profiling Without Pressure Profiling Introduction of CNG Stations Without Augmentation and desired Rehabilitation

  30. LESSONS FROM NATIONAL GRID, UK & LONE STAR GAS, USA

  31. CLUE 2 – LONE STAR COMPANY, USA CLUE 1 – NATIONAL GRID, UK • Distribution system operates in inches of water column. • Estimated Losses due to Leakages 6.3 Bcf / Annum. • Introduced Pressure Profiling in 1990. • Installed 3,500 automatic pressure profiling systems. Additional 2,000 are in process. • *Presented by Mr. Jonathan Dennett & Steven Vallender in 2009 IGU • Conference Argentina in 2009 LO • * Reducing the pressure from 10 psig to 5 psig lowers the gas leakage by 29.3%. • *Presented by Mr. Darryl Gallagher

  32. SHORT TERM MAGIC TOOLS TO REDUCE UFG PRESSURE PROFILING SYSTEM AUGUMENTATION 33

  33. PRESSURE PROFILING • Rate of gas leakage is reduced by reducing operating pressure. • Pressures are reduced during off-peak Period (Night) and normalized during day (Cooking Load Period).

  34. Augmentation involves lowering operating pressures and increasing network capacity. • Distribution Network becomes undersized with increase in load with time. • Network Pressures are kept high to ensure gas availability to Customers. • Undersize Network is rectified by replacement of small dia pipelines with large dia pipelines or by laying additional lines of large dia. PIPELINE AUGMENTATION

  35. COMPLICATING THE CASE – OTHER FACTORS BEHIND UFG • Underground leaks (Ageing of Distribution Network) & Overhead leaks. • Reduction in uninfected sales (Bulk) and increase in infected sales (Retail) • Measurement and Billing Errors • Third Party Damages. • Pipeline ruptures due to blast / sabotage.

  36. GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE CASE • MONITORING UFG • Segmentation of Distribution Network in Small Zones. • Analysis of Gas Sale, Purchase and UFG.

  37. NOVEL TECHNIQUES TO MONITOR UFG Let’s check the trends through DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS

  38. Differential Analysis (Decrease in UFG) MMCF

  39. Differential Analysis (Increase in UFG) MMCF

  40. UFG MONITORING TOOL (DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS) MMCF 41

  41. Region wise UFG Differential Analysis of Interior Sindh Jul-Sep 2010 (1st Qtr) V/s Jul-Sep 2009 (1st Qtr) MMCF

  42. LONG TERM MEASURES TO CONTROL UFG • Pipeline Rehabilitation • Improve Measurement Accuracy 43

  43. UFG REDUCTION: WORLD BANK FUNDING – 2011-15 COMPONENT WISE PHYSICAL TARGET 44

  44. UFG – THROUGH THE LENS 45 45

  45. The Mystery of UFG has been SOLVED to a great extent. Yet this trail to clamp down on UFG cases have uncovered COMPLEX issues such as the nagging incidence of gas theft that needs further identification…

  46. COMING SOON Clouseau’s next case: Tackling Gas theft

  47. QUESTION TIME

  48. UFG CONTRIBUTING FACTORS

  49. UFG MONITORING TOOL (DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS) MMCF Zone Wise Hyderabad Region (July-February) 50

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