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Policy-opinion responsiveness and performance politics: evidence from the UK

Policy-opinion responsiveness and performance politics: evidence from the UK. Will Jennings ESRC Research Fellow University of Manchester. Outline. Models and measurement of policy-opinion responsiveness. Some evidence from the UK:

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Policy-opinion responsiveness and performance politics: evidence from the UK

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  1. Policy-opinion responsiveness and performance politics: evidence from the UK Will Jennings ESRC Research Fellow University of Manchester

  2. Outline • Models and measurement of policy-opinion responsiveness. • Some evidence from the UK: • Macro-Politics: the Queen’s Speech 1960-2001 (Jennings and John) • Meso-Politics: the UK asylum system 1994-2007 (Jennings) • Performance-Politics: party support and issue competence 1971-1997 (Green and Jennings) • Reflections.

  3. Government by the people? “I assume that a key characteristic of a democracy is the continuing responsiveness of the government to the preferences of its citizens, considered as political equals.” (Robert Dahl, 1971)

  4. The policy-opinion link • Representation (congruence approach) Policy = opinion + elections • Responsiveness (dynamic approach) Change in policy = change in opinion • Thermostatic (public responsiveness)Change in opinion = change in policy

  5. Policy representation • Representation of public opinion by the policy system (i.e. policies represent the preferences of the general public). • Tested through policy consistency (e.g. Monroe 1998), covariation (e.g. Page and Shapiro 1983), congruence (e.g. Stimson et al. 1995).

  6. Dynamic representation • Policy is a function of public preferences, either directly through politicians' response to changes in public opinion, or through elections that result in changes in partisan control of the legislature. • Implies a gradual, continuous equilibration of policy and public opinion (e.g. Stimson et al 1995; Wlezien 1995; Soroka and Wlezien 2005).

  7. The Public Thermostat “The representation of public opinion presupposes that the public actually notices and responds to what policy makers do. Without such responsiveness, policy makers would have little incentive to represent what the public wants in policy – there would be no real benefit for doing so, and there would be no real cost for not doing so.” (Soroka and Wlezien 2005)

  8. Evidence 1: The Queen’s Speech • The UK Policy Agendas Project: policy content coding system, 19 major topics, 225 sub-topics. • Text of the Queen’s Speech, 1960-2001, blind-coded at the ‘quasi-sentence’ level. • Gallup’s survey question about the “most important problem” facing the country.

  9. Table 1. The Policy Agendas Coding System

  10. Error-correction model ΔPOLICYt = α0* + α*1POLICYt-1 + β0*ΔOPINIONt + β*1OPINIONt-1 + PARTYt + εt Short-run change in policy Difference in policy between political parties Short-run effect of public opinion Long-run effect of public opinion Lag of policy

  11. Results • Policy-opinion responsiveness is found to be significant for: macroeconomic issues, education, health, and law and order. • Note that these are policy topics with the highest average level of public attention. • There is also a partisan difference in the average level of policy-making attention (i.e. difference between Con and Lab).

  12. Evidence 2: The UK asylum system • Home Office data on the rate of decision-processing and the number of applications for asylum, 1994-2007. • Ipsos-MORI data on public concern about the ‘most important issue facing Britain today’. • Vector error-correction models of quarterly data. Significant relationship for the level of asylum applications and public opinion.

  13. Evidence 3: performance politics? • What is the relationship between party support and issue competence? • Gallup data on voting intentions, 1971 to 1997, and public rating of the “best party to handle the most important problem”. • Tests for ‘Granger causation’ of party support > issue competence, and issue competence > party support.

  14. Issue Competence and Vote:Incumbents

  15. Issue Competence and Vote: Challengers

  16. Reflections • There is evidence of a policy-opinion link at the macro level in British politics. This is not comprehensive, however. • There is also evidence of responsiveness from specific policy domains. • Last, public perceptions about performance matter. In other words, there is – statistically at least – a transmission mechanism between issue competence and support of incumbents.

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