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Morgan Stanley. December 7 th , 2004 By Adam Freda. Introduction. We currently own 400 shares of Morgan Stanley and purchased shares on 4/11/01 for just under 57.19 Total cost of position (adjusted for dividends) - $22,876

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Morgan Stanley

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Morgan stanley

Morgan Stanley

December 7th, 2004

By Adam Freda


Introduction

Introduction

  • We currently own 400 shares of Morgan Stanley and purchased shares on 4/11/01 for just under 57.19

  • Total cost of position (adjusted for dividends) - $22,876

  • Market value of position - $21,308 for a loss of $1,568 as of the 12/6/04 market close of $53.27

  • Recommendation is to hold


Relevant financial statistics

Relevant Financial Statistics

  • 52 Week Range: $46.54 - $62.83

  • Market Cap: 58.51B

  • P/E: 13.62

  • EPS (ttm): $3.91

  • Dividend: $1.00

  • Dividend Yield: 1.88%


Brief background

Brief Background

  • Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm that operates in four business segments

    • Institutional Securities

    • Individual Investor Group

    • Investment Management

    • Credit Services


Brief background cont d

Brief Background (cont’d)

  • Institutional Securities

    • Provides worldwide financial advisory and capital-raising services to a diverse group of corporate and other institutional clients

  • Individual Investor Group

    • Provides financial planning and investment advisory services designed to accommodate individual investment goals and risk profiles


Brief background cont d1

Brief Background (cont’d)

  • Investment Management

    • Provides global asset management products and services for individual and institutional investors

    • Private equity activities

  • Credit Services

    • Offers Discover-branded cards and other consumer finance products and services

    • Includes the operation of Discover Business Services

      • A network of merchant and cash access locations primarily in the United States

      • Approximately 46.1 million general purpose credit card accounts as of November 30, 2003


Macroeconomic review

Macroeconomic Review

  • MWD operates in the financial sector and the investment services industry

  • Competitors include Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, JP Morgan, CSFB, and other investment and commercial banks

    • Macroeconomic forces

      • Investment banking business, individual investments, and credit card spending are very market dependent

    • Company specific forces

      • Reputation

      • Relationships


Stock market prospects recent updates

Stock Market Prospects – Recent Updates

  • Nine months ended 8/31/04

    • Revenues rose 13% to $29.13 billion.

    • Net income increased 18% to $3.31 billion

      • Results reflect higher fixed income and trading revenues, lower loan loss provisions, and decreased dividends on preferred securities


Stock market prospects 1yr

Stock Market Prospects – 1YR


Stock market prospects 5yr

Stock Market Prospects – 5YR


Stock market prospects dow comparison

Stock Market Prospects – Dow Comparison


Stock market prospects comparison with competitors

Stock Market Prospects – Comparison with Competitors


Company strategy

Company Strategy

  • Global Firm

    • Operates in 27 countries

    • 51,000 employees

    • Revenues of $38.61 billion in the last twelve months

  • “Product excellence and technical skills are essential to our success. They are necessary but they are not sufficient. What we truly prize is the quality of the relationships we build with our clients.”

    • Recognizes that large size creates a powerful platform, but also realizes that personal relationships still drive revenue growth


Company strategy cont d

Company Strategy (cont’d)

  • Four key priorities set out for Fiscal 2003

    • Profitability

    • Market Share

    • Brand

    • Quality of People

  • Success in 2003

    • #1 Global Equity Trading

    • #2 in Announced Global Mergers and Acquisitions

    • #3 in Global Equity Underwriting

    • #4 in Global Debt Underwriting


Company strategy cont d1

Company Strategy (cont’d)

  • Accolades in 2003

    • Best Global Investment Bank — Euromoney magazine

    • U.S. Equity House of the Year — International Financing Review

    • Derivatives House of the Year — Risk magazine

    • 100 Best Companies to Work For — Sunday Times (U.K.)

    • Top 50 Companies for Diversity — DiversityInc magazine


Company strategy cont d2

Company Strategy (cont’d)

  • Fiscal 2004 – Looking forward

    • A strong economy next year is a critical driver for financial services firms

      • Individual level

        • Increased consumer wealth will increase credit card spending, which generates significant revenue for Morgan Stanley

      • Corporate level

        • Improving business prospects will increase the need for capital, both debt and equity

        • A stronger economy will reinvigorate the mergers and acquisition and IPO markets, which are very profitable activities for Morgan Stanley

    • The company seems dedicated to its client-focused strategy which should position it well in the upcoming year


Eps sensitivity

EPS Sensitivity

  • Sales have grown an average of only 2.39% over the last 5 years but EPS has grown at an average rate of 4.55% over the last 5 years

    • The five year revenue growth rate includes the boom of 1999-2000 as well as the less profitable 2001-2003 period


Combined sensitivity

Combined Sensitivity

  • Low P/E = 10

  • Current P/E in Market = 13

  • Sector P/E = 16

  • Wide range of prices when revenue growth and P/Es are sensitized


Dividend and growth rates

Dividend and Growth Rates

  • Comparable dividend yields but lower growth rates due to difficult last three years


Ratio analysis and valuation

Ratio Analysis and Valuation

  • See Excel


Considerations

Considerations

  • Add to position

    • Downsides

      • Between JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, we have a fairly sizable stake in the financial sector already

      • Banks are very dependent on the overall health of the economy

        • The last three years were not very profitable due to the decreased number of IPOs and mergers and acquisitions

  • Sell

    • Downsides

      • Company appears to be well positioned going forward

      • Both EPS and ratio analysis showed that there is growth left in this stock as long as revenue growth materializes


Recommendation

Recommendation

  • Hold 400 shares of Morgan Stanley

  • Morgan Stanley operates in a fairly cyclical industry and it appears that the next few years might bring about an upturn

  • Must continue to monitor Morgan Stanley to see if customer-focused strategy continues to generate revenue

  • Must ensure that revenue growth and EPS growth are maintainable and realistic


Any questions

Any Questions

?


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