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Regional Economic Impact of the Northern Virginia Workforce System

Regional Economic Impact of the Northern Virginia Workforce System. December 15, 2011. Outline . Regional Economic Trends Economic Impact Summary. Outline . Regional Economic Trends Economic Impact Summary. NOVA Total Employment (quarterly): 2006:Q1 to 2011:Q1.

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Regional Economic Impact of the Northern Virginia Workforce System

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  1. Regional Economic Impactof the Northern VirginiaWorkforce System December 15, 2011

  2. Outline • Regional Economic Trends • Economic Impact • Summary

  3. Outline • Regional Economic Trends • Economic Impact • Summary

  4. NOVA Total Employment (quarterly): 2006:Q1 to 2011:Q1 Data Source: Virginia Employment Commission

  5. NOVA Total Employment (YoY): 2006:Q1 to 2011:Q1 Data Source: Virginia Employment Commission

  6. NOVA Employment Change by Major Industry Category: 2009:Q1 to 2010:Q1 • Losers: • Const. -4,941 • Info. Serv. -4,167 • Retail Trade -1,944 • Wholesale Trade -1,944 • Accom. & Food Serv. -1,864 • Trans. & Warehousing -1,851 • Gainers: • Public Admin. +4,201 • Healthcare +2,780 • Prof. & Tech. Serv. +1,092 Data Source: Virginia Employment Comm.

  7. NOVA Employment Change by Major Industry Category: 2010:Q1 to 2011:Q1 • Losers: • Info. Serv. -1,831 • Retail Estate -274 • Gainers: • Prof. & Tech. Serv. +7,185 • Public Admin. +4,547 • Accom. & Food Serv. +4,133 • Retail Trade +3,564 • Healthcare +3,111 Data Source: Virginia Employment Comm.

  8. Unemployment Rate: October 2006 to October 2011 Data Source: Virginia Employment Commission

  9. NOVA Unemployment: October 2006 to October 2011 Data Source: Virginia Employment Commission

  10. Outline • Regional Economic Trends • Economic Impact • Summary

  11. FY 2011 NOVA Workforce System Job Placements

  12. Economic Impact: WIA, BRAC, VASAVOR, and PRC Programs • Assumptions: • A total of 783 individuals exited from these programs and were placed into jobs in FY 2011. • Consumption expenditures are derived using data from the U.S. Department of Labor’s “2009 Consumer Expenditure Survey.” • All consumption expenditures were made within Northern Virginia. • Economic impact is based on a “representative year” and no attempt is made to phase placements in based on actual job start data.

  13. Economic Impact: WIA, BRAC, VASAVOR, and PRC Programs

  14. Economic Impact: WIA, BRAC, VASAVOR, PRC, and Core Programs • Assumptions: • A total of 1,667 individuals exited from these programs and were placed into jobs in FY 2011. • Consumption expenditures are derived using data from the U.S. Department of Labor’s “2009 Consumer Expenditure Survey.” • All consumption expenditures were made within Northern Virginia. • Economic impact is based on a “representative year” and no attempt is made to phase placements in based on actual job start data.

  15. Economic Impact: WIA, BRAC, VASAVOR, PRC, and Core Programs

  16. Benefit/Cost Ratio • In FY 2011, the cost associated with the WIA, BRAC, VASAVOR, PRC, and Core Services programs was $4.6 million. • Comparing this cost to the benefits derived from these programs allows us to calculate a benefit/cost ratio. • For the WIA, ARRA, BRAC, VASAVOR, and PRC programs that benefit/cost ratio is 4.7. • If Core Services are added, the benefit/cost ratio rises to 8.4.

  17. ARRA Job Placements

  18. Economic Impact: ARRA Program • Assumptions: • A total of 260 individuals exited from these programs and were placed into jobs in FY 2011 and FY 2011. • Consumption expenditures are derived using data from the U.S. Department of Labor’s “2009 Consumer Expenditure Survey.” • All consumption expenditures were made within Northern Virginia. • Economic impact is based on a “representative year” and no attempt is made to phase placements in based on actual job start data.

  19. Economic Impact: ARRA Program

  20. Outline • Regional Economic Trends • Economic Impact • Summary

  21. Summary • In FY 2011, NOVA continued to slowly recover from the 2007-2009 recession. • However, stubbornly high unemployment drove increased demand for the Northern Virginia Workforce System’s job placement and career training services. • Number of individuals enrolled in WIA, ARRA, and other services increased from 1,928 in FY 2010 to 1,985 in FY 2011.

  22. Summary • In FY 2011: • 783 individuals were placed in jobs through the WIA, ARRA, BRAC, VASAVOR, and PRC programs. • 884 were placed in jobs through Core Services. • These newly employed individuals received $52.4 million in salaries and wages and generated an estimated $49.8 million in new consumption expenditures.

  23. Summary • The total economic impact on NOVA from those new consumption expenditures is estimated to be: • $38.4 million in economic activity within the region. • An additional 268 jobs. • $6.3 million in additional tax revenue (federal, state, and local).

  24. Summary • Comparing these economic benefits to the $4.6 million in costs associated with these programs allows us to calculate a benefit/cost ratio. • For the WIA, ARRA, BRAC, VASAVOR, and PRC programs that benefit/cost ratio is 4.7. • If Core Services are added, the benefit/cost ratio rises to 8.4.

  25. Summary • Cumulatively in FY 2010 and FY 2011, 260 individuals were placed in jobs through the ARRA program. • These newly employed individuals received $12.0 million in salaries and wages and generated an estimated $11.1 million in new consumption expenditures.

  26. Summary • The total economic impact on NOVA from those new consumption expenditures is estimated to be: • $8.8 million in economic activity within the region. • An additional 61 jobs. • $1.4 million in additional tax revenue (federal, state, and local).

  27. Thank You Dr. A. Fletcher Mangum Managing Partner 804-771-5338 fletcher@mangum-consulting.com

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