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Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems. Southern Region Extension Climate Academy (SRECA) September 3-5, 2014 Athens, GA. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/.

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Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

Exploring management options for more resilient and efficient systems

Southern Region Extension Climate Academy (SRECA)

September 3-5, 2014

Athens, GA



Instead of being vulnerable we should increase the capacity to prevent, cope with risks and recover from shocks

How we can increase resilience

resilience can be described as being “about coping with uncertainty in all ways”

Insect breakout

Drought

increasing resilience can be achieved by reducing vulnerabilities and increasing adaptive

capacity

Reduce

Reduce

1 2 3

of systems

Source: Gitz and Meybeck, 2012


Climate of the Eastern US to prevent, cope with risks and recover from shocks

High influence on Winter and Spring climate

A. ENSO – El Niño phase

Winter

Above average sea surface temperature (SST) across the eastern tropical Pacific

El Niño does not run to the calendar year - some events last >> 12months

Summer


Climate in the Southeast to prevent, cope with risks and recover from shocks

B. La Niña phase of ENSO

Winter

Below than normal sea surface temp. (SST) across the eastern tropical Pacific

Summer


Climate Forecast – to prevent, cope with risks and recover from shocksENSO Indices

- Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI): A monthly quantitative index based on six variables of: sea-level pressure, zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature, surface air temperature, and total cloudiness fraction of the sky.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/


Precipitation Anomalies (in) to prevent, cope with risks and recover from shocks

1996 - 2013 vs. 1950 - 1995

March April

May July


Climate Risk Tool to prevent, cope with risks and recover from shocks

ENSO phase Rainfall Differences Tifton Co. South GA

http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/


If we know the ENSO impact on climate variables, can we manage the crop based on those differences?

South GA

North GA

What management practices you will advice farmers to adjust/modify?

http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/


U manage the crop based on those differences? se of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA

ENSO and Wheat Yield Differences

AgroClimate Tool

http://agroclimate.org/tools/County-Yield-Statistics/


U manage the crop based on those differences? se of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA

ENSO and Planting Date Related Yield Losses

(4 wks later)

Tifton, GA

The highest yield penalties associated with delayed planting could be expected during the La Niña phase (warmer winter) rather than the El Niño , especially for southern counties.

http://agroclimate.org/tools/Planting-Date-Planner/


U manage the crop based on those differences? se of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA

Wheat varieties yield of different maturity groups (Early/Late) by ENSO phase

North GA Central West GA

Under El Niño, late maturity varieties had greater yield than Early maturity at the most Northern locations (Calhoun, GA).

Under La Niña, early maturity varieties (early heading) had greater yield than late maturity at the Southern locations (Plains, GA) compared with the North (Calhoun, GA).


U manage the crop based on those differences? se of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA

ENSO and Hessian Fly infestation

ENSO phase HF Infestation Differences Yield losses and HF Infestation

Georgia

HF infestation was higher duringLa Niñathan El Niño with increased occurrence closer to the Coast (Plains site).

Higher infestation for susceptible varieties (compared to resistant) was observed for La Niña, therefore higher yield losses.


U manage the crop based on those differences? se of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA

ENSO and Hessian Fly infestation

ENSO phase HF Infestation Differences

The HFI prediction model was based on:

- Temperature and Precipitation of Aug-Sep (TAug-Sep, PAug-Sep) and Oct-Feb (T Oct-Feb, P Oct-Feb) periods PLUS- Change in wheat area in the preceding year (ΔWA)

Georgia

HFIPGriffin = 0.012ΔWA + 0.045PAS – 0.017POF – 5.574TAS + 3.139TOF + 112.3

HF infestation was higher duringLa Niñathan El Niño with increased occurrence closer to the Coast (Plains site).


Climate Risk Tool manage the crop based on those differences?

Plains, GA

ENSO phase Rainfall & Temperature Differences

http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/

Plains, GA


Adaptation Strategies manage the crop based on those differences?

http://www.agroclimate.org/seclimate/extension-resources/


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