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Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems. Southern Region Extension Climate Academy (SRECA) September 3-5, 2014 Athens, GA. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/.

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Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

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  1. Exploring management options for more resilient and efficient systems Southern Region Extension Climate Academy (SRECA) September 3-5, 2014 Athens, GA

  2. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

  3. Instead of being vulnerable we should increase the capacity to prevent, cope with risks and recover from shocks How we can increase resilience resilience can be described as being “about coping with uncertainty in all ways” Insect breakout Drought increasing resilience can be achieved by reducing vulnerabilities and increasing adaptive capacity Reduce Reduce 1 2 3 of systems Source: Gitz and Meybeck, 2012

  4. Climate of the Eastern US High influence on Winter and Spring climate A. ENSO – El Niño phase Winter Above average sea surface temperature (SST) across the eastern tropical Pacific El Niño does not run to the calendar year - some events last >> 12months Summer

  5. Climate in the Southeast B. La Niña phase of ENSO Winter Below than normal sea surface temp. (SST) across the eastern tropical Pacific Summer

  6. Climate Forecast – ENSO Indices - Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI): A monthly quantitative index based on six variables of: sea-level pressure, zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature, surface air temperature, and total cloudiness fraction of the sky. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

  7. Precipitation Anomalies (in) 1996 - 2013 vs. 1950 - 1995 March April May July

  8. Climate Risk Tool ENSO phase Rainfall Differences Tifton Co. South GA http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/

  9. If we know the ENSO impact on climate variables, can we manage the crop based on those differences? South GA North GA What management practices you will advice farmers to adjust/modify? http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/

  10. Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA ENSO and Wheat Yield Differences AgroClimate Tool http://agroclimate.org/tools/County-Yield-Statistics/

  11. Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA ENSO and Planting Date Related Yield Losses (4 wks later) Tifton, GA The highest yield penalties associated with delayed planting could be expected during the La Niña phase (warmer winter) rather than the El Niño , especially for southern counties. http://agroclimate.org/tools/Planting-Date-Planner/

  12. Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA Wheat varieties yield of different maturity groups (Early/Late) by ENSO phase North GA Central West GA Under El Niño, late maturity varieties had greater yield than Early maturity at the most Northern locations (Calhoun, GA). Under La Niña, early maturity varieties (early heading) had greater yield than late maturity at the Southern locations (Plains, GA) compared with the North (Calhoun, GA).

  13. Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA ENSO and Hessian Fly infestation ENSO phase HF Infestation Differences Yield losses and HF Infestation Georgia HF infestation was higher duringLa Niñathan El Niño with increased occurrence closer to the Coast (Plains site). Higher infestation for susceptible varieties (compared to resistant) was observed for La Niña, therefore higher yield losses.

  14. Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA ENSO and Hessian Fly infestation ENSO phase HF Infestation Differences The HFI prediction model was based on: - Temperature and Precipitation of Aug-Sep (TAug-Sep, PAug-Sep) and Oct-Feb (T Oct-Feb, P Oct-Feb) periods PLUS- Change in wheat area in the preceding year (ΔWA) Georgia HFIPGriffin = 0.012ΔWA + 0.045PAS – 0.017POF – 5.574TAS + 3.139TOF + 112.3 HF infestation was higher duringLa Niñathan El Niño with increased occurrence closer to the Coast (Plains site).

  15. Climate Risk Tool Plains, GA ENSO phase Rainfall & Temperature Differences http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/ Plains, GA

  16. Adaptation Strategies http://www.agroclimate.org/seclimate/extension-resources/

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