Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems
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Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems. Southern Region Extension Climate Academy (SRECA) September 3-5, 2014 Athens, GA. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/.

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Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

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Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

Exploring management options for more resilient and efficient systems

Southern Region Extension Climate Academy (SRECA)

September 3-5, 2014

Athens, GA


Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/


Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

Instead of being vulnerable we should increase the capacity to prevent, cope with risks and recover from shocks

How we can increase resilience

resilience can be described as being “about coping with uncertainty in all ways”

Insect breakout

Drought

increasing resilience can be achieved by reducing vulnerabilities and increasing adaptive

capacity

Reduce

Reduce

1 2 3

of systems

Source: Gitz and Meybeck, 2012


Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

Climate of the Eastern US

High influence on Winter and Spring climate

A. ENSO – El Niño phase

Winter

Above average sea surface temperature (SST) across the eastern tropical Pacific

El Niño does not run to the calendar year - some events last >> 12months

Summer


Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

Climate in the Southeast

B. La Niña phase of ENSO

Winter

Below than normal sea surface temp. (SST) across the eastern tropical Pacific

Summer


Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

Climate Forecast – ENSO Indices

- Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI): A monthly quantitative index based on six variables of: sea-level pressure, zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature, surface air temperature, and total cloudiness fraction of the sky.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/


Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

Precipitation Anomalies (in)

1996 - 2013 vs. 1950 - 1995

March April

May July


Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

Climate Risk Tool

ENSO phase Rainfall Differences Tifton Co. South GA

http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/


Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

If we know the ENSO impact on climate variables, can we manage the crop based on those differences?

South GA

North GA

What management practices you will advice farmers to adjust/modify?

http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/


Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA

ENSO and Wheat Yield Differences

AgroClimate Tool

http://agroclimate.org/tools/County-Yield-Statistics/


Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA

ENSO and Planting Date Related Yield Losses

(4 wks later)

Tifton, GA

The highest yield penalties associated with delayed planting could be expected during the La Niña phase (warmer winter) rather than the El Niño , especially for southern counties.

http://agroclimate.org/tools/Planting-Date-Planner/


Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA

Wheat varieties yield of different maturity groups (Early/Late) by ENSO phase

North GA Central West GA

Under El Niño, late maturity varieties had greater yield than Early maturity at the most Northern locations (Calhoun, GA).

Under La Niña, early maturity varieties (early heading) had greater yield than late maturity at the Southern locations (Plains, GA) compared with the North (Calhoun, GA).


Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA

ENSO and Hessian Fly infestation

ENSO phase HF Infestation Differences Yield losses and HF Infestation

Georgia

HF infestation was higher duringLa Niñathan El Niño with increased occurrence closer to the Coast (Plains site).

Higher infestation for susceptible varieties (compared to resistant) was observed for La Niña, therefore higher yield losses.


Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA

ENSO and Hessian Fly infestation

ENSO phase HF Infestation Differences

The HFI prediction model was based on:

- Temperature and Precipitation of Aug-Sep (TAug-Sep, PAug-Sep) and Oct-Feb (T Oct-Feb, P Oct-Feb) periods PLUS- Change in wheat area in the preceding year (ΔWA)

Georgia

HFIPGriffin = 0.012ΔWA + 0.045PAS – 0.017POF – 5.574TAS + 3.139TOF + 112.3

HF infestation was higher duringLa Niñathan El Niño with increased occurrence closer to the Coast (Plains site).


Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

Climate Risk Tool

Plains, GA

ENSO phase Rainfall & Temperature Differences

http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/

Plains, GA


Exploring m anagement o ptions for more resilient and efficient systems

Adaptation Strategies

http://www.agroclimate.org/seclimate/extension-resources/


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