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Strategies for Understanding and Addressing Risk Tolerance Factor # 3 Seriousness of the Outcome

Strategies for Understanding and Addressing Risk Tolerance Factor # 3 Seriousness of the Outcome. 10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance Overestimating Capability/Experience Familiarity with the Task Seriousness of Outcome Voluntary Actions and Being in Control

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Strategies for Understanding and Addressing Risk Tolerance Factor # 3 Seriousness of the Outcome

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  1. Strategies for Understanding and Addressing Risk Tolerance Factor # 3 Seriousness of the Outcome

  2. 10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance • Overestimating Capability/Experience • Familiarity with the Task • Seriousness of Outcome • Voluntary Actions and Being in Control • Personal Experience with an Outcome • Cost of Non-Compliance • Confidence in the Equipment • Confidence in Protection and Rescue • Potential Profit & Gain from Actions • Role Models Accepting Risk “How bad could it be?” When we believe that the outcome of our actions will not be serious, we are prepared to accept more risk. If we believe the outcome to be serious, risk tolerance goes down.

  3. Seriousness of the Outcome • The seriousness of the outcome from an action may be underestimated or understated due to: • Having seen a negative outcome but the consequences were minimal: • - i.e. seen H2S leaks but nothing worst than a bad smell was experienced • - over pressured a vessel but nothing worse than a PSV releasing occurred • Using language and descriptors that trivialize the true nature of the risk: • - referring to a consequence as a ‘pinch’ when it is actually a ‘crush’ • - referring to gas as ‘sweet’ when it is actually ‘explosive’. ‘Low speed incident’ or ‘fatality’?? ‘Pinch’ or ‘Amputation’??

  4. Seriousness of the Outcome • Common language that discounts the seriousness of the outcome includes: • ‘Pinch Point’ • Is a ‘pinch’ the worst that could happen or is it a ‘crush’ that will brake bones or result in an ‘amputation’ • Could this ‘pinch point’ result in a fatality? • ‘Sweet Gas’ • Is it really ‘sweet’ or should we refer to it as ‘explosive’ or ‘flammable’ • ‘Hot Water’ • - Is it just ‘hot’ like a Jacuzzi or hot tub or is it ‘scalding’ hot like condensed steam?

  5. Seriousness of the Outcome Strategies for addressing risk created by under estimating the seriousness of the outcome: • Use incident communications and safety alerts to demonstrate the seriousness of the outcome: • Use language that more appropriately describes how serious the outcome could be: • - ‘crush’ instead of ‘pinch point’ • - ‘industrial or scalding hot’ instead of just ‘hot’ • - ‘explosive’ instead of ‘sweet gas’ • - ‘death trap’ instead of ‘unguarded rotating equipment’

  6. Cable suddenly tightened and IP’s hand became trapped between cable and wench drum. Exercise and Discussion on “Seriousness of the Outcome” • Ask the question for each of the pictured scenarios “How bad could it be?” • Relay actual events similar to these shown where the outcomes have been extremely serious. 1 2 4 3 What are we going to do about these?

  7. Stop and Think ... How bad could it be ... really, how bad?

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