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Global energy shift Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences Dean, International Energy Business Department Doctor of Economics, Professor Russian University of Oil and Gas.

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Global energy shift

Elena Telegina

Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security

Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences

Dean, International Energy Business Department

Doctor of Economics, Professor

Russian University of Oil and Gas

The Baltic Forum, 25-26 October 2013


Regional GDP growth, World Bank 2013

Russia

2,3 %

(-1,1%)*

EU

-0,6%

(-0,1%)*

USA

2,0 %

-0,2%)*

China

7,7 %

(-0,1%)*

Japan

1,4 %

(-0,6%)*

(+0,1%)*

(-1,0%)*

(-0,2%)*

(+0,4%)*

Latin

America

3,3 %

(+0,3%)*

(+0,5%)*

World GDP 2013 2,2% (-0,1%)

* % of change 2013to 2012


  • Gas slows down but still expands its role

  • Global gas consumption grows at 100 bcm/year

  • Gas is growing faster than oil at 2,4%/year but continues to fall behind coal

  • Transportation emerges as a major demand accounting for 10% of gas demand growth driven by China and United States

Medium-term Oil Market Balance




US Shale Fields

Proven resources- 24 tcm



US oil shale production

US oil shale production will increase to 1,9 mbd in 2016


*EIA estimates used for ranking order.

API estimates in parenthesis




Shale gas reserves

Shale gas

Reserves

2012

Production Banned

Allowed

Production possible.

but under discussion


US gas prices decreasing

$/th cm

$/bl

Цены на газ в США стремительно падают

Подробнее: http://investfuture.ru/articles/id/4737

Цены на газ в США стремительно падают

Подробнее: http://investfuture.ru/articles/id/4737

Цены на газ в США стремительно падают

Подробнее: http://investfuture.ru/articles/id/4737

Gas, Indonesia

Gazprom-Europe

Gas, USA

Brent

Finmarket.ru


US Shale Gas Production, bcm/year

US Gas Prices, $/MMBtu

Credit Suisse

prices

forecast


Unconventional gas in Russia

83 700 tcm of CBM (coal bed methane)

Lena Basin

Irkutsk Basin

South Yakutia

Talnyr Basin

Zaryan Basin

Eastern Donbass

Pechora Basin

Tungus Basin

Kuzbass


Change in current account balance

as % of GDP in alternative oil price scenarios

PWC 2013



Projects in advanced stage

could transform the US into the №3 LNG exporter

(after Qatar and Australia)

IEA



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