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Den syriske opstand - to år senere

Den syriske opstand - to år senere. Jakob Skovgaard-Petersen. A mosaic?. A pattern of distinct entities static in harmony. Or a kaleidoscope?. Sects are managed, to the point of changing much of their content People are moving around physically. Intermarriage Other identities

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Den syriske opstand - to år senere

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  1. Den syriske opstand - to år senere Jakob Skovgaard-Petersen

  2. A mosaic? A pattern of distinct entities static in harmony

  3. Or a kaleidoscope? • Sects are managed, to the point of changing much of their content • People are moving around physically. • Intermarriage • Other identities • Or mixed ones?

  4. Syncretism

  5. Common culture, national identity

  6. Map of Syria’s religionsSect vs religious minority

  7. Other languages and ethnicities

  8. From milla to taifa

  9. The birth of anti-Sectarianism Saleh al-Ali Sultan Pasha al-Atrash

  10. The Baath Party: An anti-Sectarian vehicle for Sectarian policies.

  11. The Asads. From Security State to state plunder

  12. Opstanden 2011-

  13. Tidslinje 2011 Marts: 6 De 15 drenge i Deraa 15. ”Vredens dag” demonstrationer Asads tale. Dagen efter reformer. April ”Jumaat al-Sumud.” kurderne med. Juni: 2-3 Antalya mødet 10-13 Massakre i JisrShughur. Den arabiske Liga fordømmer. Juli ”Jumaat Khaled ibn al-Walid. 650.000 i Hama.

  14. Tidslinje August Ramadan offensiv Hama, latakia Golfen agerer Vesten: Asad illegitim ”Vi bøjer os kun for Gud” SNC dannes September ”International beskyttelse” FNs sikkerhedsråd, veto Tyrkiet bryder forbindelsen Oktober SNC organiserer sig Ruslands andet veto Fredag for SNC, FSA November Arabiske Liga involveres

  15. Tidslinie2012 Januar Arabiske Ligas mission forgæves Februar 3 veto i FNs sikkerhedsråd Belejringen af Homs ”Friends of Syria”: Annan mission med Rusland om bord 26 Forfatningsafstemning April Annans fredsplan med seks punkter Maj Massakre i Houla Juli PM afhopper Attentat mod hovedkvarteret November Damaskus lufthavn ved at falde Kurdernes militser tager over

  16. SNC: et alternativ?

  17. Alternativer til alternativet ?

  18. Doha, november 2012

  19. 2013: The threeSyrias

  20. Fra SNC til Koalitionen til regeringselimIdriss, Ahmad Jarba, Ahmad SalehToma • Splittelser: MB • Interim regering? • Qatar og Saudi, US • Udspillet

  21. Amerikansk intervention- eller Rusland i førersædet

  22. Militær Status oktober 2013

  23. 2013 Sept 24: Bayanno 1

  24. A new millet system? Then what about the rafidun and ghulat?

  25. De-centralization A good idea, but to which degree? Sensible local arrangements But addressing sects, not minorities Cannot follow sectarian faultlines Minorities can oppress minorities. A Pandora’s box, but it has been opened?

  26. An upper chamber in Parliament? • Representatives from all sects, ethnicities. • Accepting or rejecting the budget, other major decisions, but perhaps with a majority of 2/3 • Point: all groups will be represented, counter-acting majority rule in Parliament • Risk: dead-lock.

  27. Conclusion • Although a certain cosmopolitan anti-Sectarianism has thrived under Baath and the Asads, the regime has exploited it rather than supported it • Anti-sectarism is grounded to Syrian history and society. • In the later phase of the uprising, Sectarianism has grown to become a major challenge in the future. Syria should find a way of making light institutional concessions to a sectarian reality whilst building on its proud tradition of anti-Sectarianism to overcome it.

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