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STAGES TO APPROPRIATE WEATHER-RELATED RESPONSE

STAGES TO APPROPRIATE WEATHER-RELATED RESPONSE. National Surface Transportation Weather Symposium July 25, 2007 Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow. Stages to Appropriate Weather-Related Response. FORECAST HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT RISK REDUCTION. I. FORECAST. Factors Affecting Effectiveness.

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STAGES TO APPROPRIATE WEATHER-RELATED RESPONSE

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  1. STAGES TO APPROPRIATE WEATHER-RELATED RESPONSE National Surface Transportation Weather Symposium July 25, 2007 Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow

  2. Stages to Appropriate Weather-Related Response • FORECAST • HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT • RISK REDUCTION

  3. I. FORECAST Factors Affecting Effectiveness A. Accuracy B. Dissemination • Multiple Channels • Multiple Modalities

  4. RISK COMMUNICATION: A MULTISTATE SOCIAL PROCESS SENDING RECEIVING UNDERSTANDING BELIEVING PERSONALIZING Adapted from Tierney, K., M.K. Lindell and R. Perry. 2001

  5. Severe Weather Communication System National Weather Service CHANNELS Employers, Schools, Etc. Internet 511, Highway Systems PDAs, NAVI, Etc. Broadcast Media Emergency Managers Public Officials Family and Friends Appropriate Citizen Responses

  6. BETTER FORECASTS AND DISSEMINATION AREN’T ENOUGH They Must: Be Understood Result in Effective Risk Assessment

  7. II. HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT • Forecast Understanding 1. Message Clarity 2. Characteristics of Receivers B. Vulnerability Assessment

  8. Forecast Understanding 1. Message Clarity • To what extent do responders understand terms such as: • tropical cyclone category • watch • warning • storm surge?

  9. From Post-Katrina Behavioral Survey. Hugh Gladwin, PI Funded by National Science Foundation

  10. No important differences by evacuation plans, living in an evacuation zone, age College graduates, higher income more likely to give correct answer Women more likely to say they did not know From Post-Katrina Behavioral Survey. Hugh Gladwin, PI Funded by National Science Foundation

  11. Hurricane Local Statement Insert Quote, Graph or Picture Here

  12. Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale With Range of Hazards at the Coast and Inland Major hurricanes Hurricane Categories Category 1 Winds: 74-95 mph (64-82 kt) Category 5 Winds: > 155 mph (> 136 kt) Category 4 Winds: 131-155 mph (114-135 kt) Category 3 Winds: 111-130 mph (96-113 kt) Category 2 Winds: 96-110 mph (83-95 kt) Hazards Storm examples shown in hazard matrix based on intensity at landfall Surge Extreme Camille (69) Katrina (05)@ Impact Andrew (92)* High Isabel (03) Hugo (95) Claudette (03) Moderate Floyd (99) Charley (04) Jeanne (04) Low Irene (99) Andrew (92)* Wind Extreme Camille (69) Impact Charley (04) High Hugo (95) Katrina (05)@ Isabel (03) Jeanne (04) Moderate Claudette (03) Floyd (99) Low Irene (99) Extreme Rain Floyd (99) Impact High Jeanne (04) Hugo (95) Irene (99) Camille (69) Charley (04) Claudette (03) Moderate Isabel (03) Katrina (05)@ Low Andrew (92)* Tornado Extreme Impact High Katrina (05)@ Camille (69) Charley (04) Floyd (99) Claudette (03) Moderate Jeanne (04) Andrew (92)* Isabel (03) Hugo (95) Irene (99) Low *landfall in South Florida, @ landfall in Louisiana

  13. Center Track in Cone? Center track of Hurricane Charley “pointed” toward Tampa Bay area -- Eye made landfall at Port Charlotte (within the Cone of Uncertainty) Note: NHC now provides the option of examining the Cone of Uncertainty with or without the center track (toggle)

  14. 64 kt Cumulative 0-120 h 18 UTC Thu 12 Aug Note that chances of hurricane conditions at Tampa Bay and Port Charlotte are both around 30%! Hurricane Charley (2004) Created by Jamie Rhome, NHC

  15. Percent INCORRECTLY Identifying Watches and Warnings From Post-Ivan Behavioral Survey. Hugh Gladwin and Betty Hearn Morrow

  16. II. RISK ASSESSMENT • Forecast Understanding 1. Message Clarity 2. Characteristics of Receivers

  17. 2. Characteristics of Receivers • Language • Physical abilities • Sight • Hearing • Cognition • Education/Training • Experience

  18. II. RISK ASSESSMENT • Forecast Understanding 1. Message Clarity 2. Characteristics of Receivers B. Vulnerability Assessment

  19. Vulnerability Depends Upon: • Location/Site • Structure • Household Structure • Disabilities/Special Needs • Social Networks • Effectiveness of Local Authorities and Institutions

  20. Stages to Appropriate Weather-Related Response • FORECAST • HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT • RISK REDUCTION

  21. Ability to Reduce Risk Depends On: 1. Awareness of Alternatives & Consequences • Effectiveness of Local Authorities 2. Appropriate Decisions • Experience/Education • Cognitive abilities • Confirmation • Culture

  22. Ability to Reduce Risk Depends On: 3. Resources to Respond Appropriately • Safe Shelter • Transportation • Economic Resources • Social Support System

  23. Evacuation of New Orleans for Katrina: Forecast • Accurate • Widely Disseminated Risk Assessment Forecast Understood? Clear Message* Able Receivers Vulnerability Understood?* Risk Reduction Awareness of Alternatives/Consequences?* Appropriate Decision? Resources to Carry It Through?* * Affected by Actions of Authorities

  24. Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow Professor Emeritus, Sociology Florida International University betty@bmorrow.com

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