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MPR 2008:2. 03.06.2008. 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages. Source: The Riksbank. 2. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change. Sources: Statistcs Sweden and the Riksbank. 3. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonal adjusted.

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MPR 2008:2

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MPR 2008:2

03.06.2008


1. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages

Source: The Riksbank


2. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistcs Sweden and the Riksbank


3. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonal adjusted

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


4. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel

Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank


5. Nominal and real oil priceUSD per barrel (Brent)

Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbanken


6. Commodity pricesUSD, annual percentage change

Source: The Economist.


7. CPI and GDP in OECDAnnual percentage change

Sources: OECD and the Riksbank


8. Unit labour costs for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


9. Actual and trend productivity growth in the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonal adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


10. Food, energy and mortgage costs in the CPIAnnual percentage change

Source: Statistics Sweden

Note. The weight of the respective components is given in brackets.


11. CPI, outcome and forecasts on different occasionsAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


12. Food prices at different stagesAnnual percentage change

Sources: The Economist and Statistics Sweden.


13. CPI and CPIFAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


14. Labour force and number of employedThousands, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


15. Percentage of unemployedPercentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


16. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


17. Growth in the World and SwedenAnnual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data

Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.

Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank's forecast.


18. GDP for the United States and the euro areaQuarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Eurostat, Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Riksbank


19. ExportsQuarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


20. TCW exchange rateIndex, 18.11.92 = 100

Source: The Riksbank


21. Interest rates in SwedenPer cent

Sources: Ecowin and the Riksbank


22. Households' disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratioAnnual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


23. InvestmentsQuarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


24. Public sector consumption expenditureAnnual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of GDP

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


25. General government net lendingProportion of GDP, per cent

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank's forecast.


26. Repo rate forecasts on different occasionsPer cent

Source: The Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


2007

2008

2009

2010

2

.

2

3.9 (3.5)

3.5 (2.8)

2.3 (2.3)

CPI

1

.

2

3.0 (2.6)

2.8 (2.4)

2.0 (2.0)

CPIX

1

.

5

2.0 (2.0)

2.2 (2.2)

2.2 (2.1)

CPIX excl. energy

1

.

5

3.1 (2.8)

3.1 (2.6)

2.3 (2.2)

CPI with fixed interest rate

Table 1. Inflation, annual averageAnnual percentage change, () = Latest MPU

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


Sept. 07

Sept. 08

Sept. 09

Sept.

-

10

Sept. 11

2

.

2

4.6 (3.8)

3.0 (2.6)

2.2 (2.2)

2

.

1

CPI

1

.

0

3.8 (3.2)

2.4 (2.3)

2.0 (1.9)

1

.

9

CPIX

1

.

4

2.4 (2.4)

2.2 (2.2)

2.2 (2.1)

2

.

0

CPIX excl. energy

1

.

3

3.9 (3.3)

2.7 (2.5)

2.2 (2.1)

2

.

1

CPI with fixed interest rate

Table 2. Inflation. 12-month rateAnnual percentage change. () = Latest MPU

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


2007

2008

2009

2010

4.9 (4.9)

4.0 (3.8)

3.9 (4.0)

4.4 (4.5)

GDP. world

Crude oil price Brent. USD/barrel. annual

73 (73)

123 (103)

137 (102)

136 (100)

average

125.2

121.9 (122.4)

121.9 (122.5)

122.8 (123.3)

Exchange rate. TCW index. annual average

3.5

4

.

4 (4

.

3)

4

.

9 (4

.

3)

4

.

6 (4

.

3)

Repo rate. annual average

General government net lending. percentage o

f

3

.

4 (3

.

4)

3

.

1 (2

.

9)

1

.

3 (1

.

4)

0

.

9 (0

.

9)

GDP

2.7 (2.6)

2

.

1 (2

.

6)

1

.

2 (1.

8)

2

.

7 (2

.

8)

GDP

2.9 (2.8)

1.9 (2.4)

1.4 (1.9)

2.4 (2.5)

GDP. calendar

-

adjusted

2.5

1.4 (1.1)

-

0.4 (-0.1)

-

0.1 (0.0)

No. of employed. 15

-

74

6.1

5.9 (6.0)

6.5 (6.2)

6.5 (6.3)

Unemployment. 15

-

74 (EU definition

)

3.3 (3.4)

4.4 (4.5)

3.7 (3.8)

3.8 (3.8)

Hourly wage in economy as a whole

*Per cent of labour force

Table 3. Key figuresAnnual percentage change. unless otherwise specified. ( ) = Latest MPU

Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, National Mediation Office and the Riksbank


Q 2

Q 3

Q 4

Q 3

Q 3

Q

3

2008

2008

2008

2009

2010

2011

Repo rate

4.25

4.5 (4.3)

4.8 (4.3)

4.9 (4.3)

4.6 (4.3)

4.4

Table 4. Repo rate forecastPer cent. quarterly average values. ( ) = Latest MPU

Source: The Riksbank


27. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent, quarterly averages

Source: The Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


28. CPIAnnual percentage change

Source: The Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


29. GDPAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Black lines show average GDP growth in the periods 1981-2007 and 1998-2007; 2, 3 and 3.2 per cent.


30. TCW exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100

Source. The Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


31. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


32. Production gap (GDP)Percentage deviation from the HP trend

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


33. Labour market gapPercentage deviation from the HP trend

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


34. Number of hours workedAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


35. Employment ratePer cent, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


36. UnemploymentPercentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


37. Commodity price index excluding energyIndex, USD

Sources: The Economist and the Riksbank.


38. GDP, scenario with lower commodity pricesAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


39. Repo rate, scenario with lower commodity pricesPer cent, quaterly average

Source: The Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


40. CPI, scenario with lower commodity pricesAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


41. Repo rate, scenario with lower growth and higher inflationPer cent, quaterly average

Source: The Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


42. CPI, scenario with lower growth and higher inflationAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


43. GDP, scenario with lower growth and higher inflation Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


44. Production gap (GDP), scenario with lower growth and higher inflation Percentage deviation from the HP trend

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


45. Labour market gap, scenario with lower growth and higher inflation Percentage deviation from the HP trend

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


46. Difference between interbank rates and government bond rates (TED spread) Basis points

Sources: Reuters, Ecowin and the Riksbank.


47. Basis-spread and Ted-spreadPer cent

Source: Reuters Ecowin


48. Spread between interbank rates and expected monetary policy (Basis spread)Basis points

Sources: Reuters, Ecowin and the Riksbank.


49. Monetary policy expectations in the United States Per cent

Sources: Reuters, Ecowin and the Riksbank.

Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.


50. Monetary policy expectations in the euro area Per cent

Sources: Reuters Ecowin and the Riksbank.

Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.


51. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden according to money market participants.Per cent

Sources: Reuters Ecowin, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank

Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.


52. Two-year interest ratesPer cent

Source: Reuters EcoWin

Note. Government bonds with approximately 2 years left to maturity.


53. Long-term interest ratesPer cent

Source: Reuters Ecowin

Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.


54. Interbank rates in SwedenPer cent

Source: The Riksbank


55. Exchange rate movementsSEK per euro and dollar

Source: Reuters Ecowin


56. Stock market movementsIndex, 1 January 1999=100

Source: Reuters Ecowin


57. The money supplyAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


58. Households’ new saving in deposit accounts or shares and unit trusts, quarter SEK billion

Note. The households’ new saving is the net amount households invest in their deposit accounts or unit trusts, or in the net purchase of shares, during a quarter. Four-quarter moving average.

Source: Statistics Sweden


59. Purchase price coefficient in Sweden as a wholeC/I ratio

Source: Statistics Sweden


60. House prices and total lending to Swedish householdsAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Quarterly observations of house prices and monthly observations of lending to households.


61. Employment and private consumption in the United StatesAnnual percentage change

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Commerce


62. Economic indicators for the euro areaIndex, December 2005 = 100, and annual percentage change

Sources: European Commission and OECD


63. Confidence indicators for households Net figures

Source: European Commission


64. ConsumerpricesAnnual percentage change

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat, OECD and Statistics Sweden


65. HICP in the euro areaAnnual percentage change

Source: Eurostat


66. Confidence indicators in the business sectorSeasonally adjusted balance

Source: National Institute of Economic Research


67. Gross fixed capital formationAnnual percentage change

Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank


68. Foreign trade with goods at fixed pricesAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Three-month moving averages


69. Retail sales and household consumptionAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the National Institute of Economic Research


70. Household expectations of the futureNet figures

Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank


71. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy noticesThousands, seasonalöly adjusted data

Source: Swedish Public Employment Service

Note. Three month moving average.


72. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage of labourftPer cent, seasonally adjusted data

Source: National Institute of Economic Research


73. Capacity utilisation in industryPer cent, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden


74. Estimated gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend

Sources:Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent thr Riksbank's forecast


75. Different agents’ expectations of inflation two years aheadAnnual percentage change

Source: Prospera Research AB


76. Actual inflation (CPI) and households’ and companies’ expectations of inflation one year aheadAnnual percentage change

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden


77. The difference between nominal and real five-year rates (break-even inflation)Percentage points

Source: The Riksbank


78. The Economist’s commodity price index for foodUSD

Source: The Economist.


79. Prices of goods and services in the CPIAnnual percentage change

Source: Statistics Sweden

Note. The weight of the respective components is given in brackets.


80. Different measures of underlying inflationAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


81. Inflation in Sweden and the euro areaAnnual percenatge change

Sources:Eurostat and Statistics Sweden

Note: The series for Sweden refers to the CPI and the series for the euro area refers to HICP.


82. Food prices for consumers in Sweden and the euro area Annual percentage change

Sources: Eurostat and Statistics Sweden

Note: The series for Sweden refers to the CPI and the series for the euro area refers to HICP.


83. CPI excluding energy and foodAnnual percentage change

Note. HICP for the euro area and Sweden and the CPI for the USA

Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and Bureau of Labor Statistics


B1. The repo rate and the interest rate index in the CPI Per cent for the respective indices, January 1995 = 100

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


B2. Capital stock index in the CPI and the property price index for single-family dwellings Annual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


B3. CPI, CPIX and CPIF, outcomes and forecasts Annual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.


B4. The CPI excluding certain goodsAnnual percentage change

Source: The Riksbank (Inflation Report 2001:2)


B5. The CPIX including and excluding energyAnnual percentage change

Note Broken lines represents the forecasts from Inflation report 2003:1

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


B6. Nominal and real one-year interest rates 1996-2008Per cent

Sources: NIER, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank.


B7. Real repo rate according to the Riksbank's forecastsPer cent, quarterly data

Sources: NIER, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank.


B8. The companies’ answers to questions about price developmentsNet figures

Source: The Riksbank


Table A1. Inflation, 12-month figures Annual percentage change, ( ) = Latest MPR

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


Table A2. Change in the CPI compared to the CPIXAnnual percentage change and percentage points, ( ) = Latest MPR

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


Table A3. Summary of financial forecastsPer cent, annual average, ( ) = Latest MPR

Source: The Riksbank


Table A4. International conditions IAnnual percentage change, ( ) = Latest MPR

Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank


Table A5. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, ( ) = Latest MPR

*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


Table A6. Production and employmentAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified, ( ) = Latest MPR

*Per cent of labour force

Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


Table A7. Wages and unit labour costs for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data ( ) = Latest MPR

*Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points

Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


Table A8. Repo ratePer cent, annual average

Source: The Riksbank


Table A9. CPIAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


Table A10. Real repo ratePer cent

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


Table A11. GDPAnnual percentage change. seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


Table A12. Number of hours workedAnnual percentage change. seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


Table A13. Percentage of unemployed 16-64 years old, according to ILO definitionPercentage of the labour force. seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


Table A14. Lower commodity pricesAnnual percentage change unless otherwise specified

*Per cent, annual average

Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets. Commodity prices refer to commodities excluding oil products. GDP refers to seasonally-adjusted data.

Sources: Intercontinental Exchange, The Economist, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


Table A15. Lower growth, higher inflationAnnual percentage change unless otherwise specified

*Per cent, annual average

Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets. GDP refers to seasonally-adjusted data.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank


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