Developing viability criteria for threatened puget sound steelhead
Download
1 / 34

Developing viability criteria for threatened Puget Sound steelhead - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 208 Views
  • Uploaded on

interim ^. Developing viability criteria for threatened Puget Sound steelhead. Jeff Hard and Jim Myers (for the PSSTRT) Conservation Biology Division NMFS Northwest Fisheries Science Center Seattle, WA 98112 West Coast Steelhead Management Meeting Redmond, OR 9-11 March 2010. Outline.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Developing viability criteria for threatened Puget Sound steelhead' - jag


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Developing viability criteria for threatened puget sound steelhead l.jpg

interim

^

Developing viability criteria for threatened Puget Sound steelhead

Jeff Hard and Jim Myers (for the PSSTRT)

Conservation Biology Division

NMFS Northwest Fisheries Science Center

Seattle, WA 98112

West Coast Steelhead Management Meeting

Redmond, OR

9-11 March 2010


Outline l.jpg
Outline

  • Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS

  • Recent changes

  • Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives

  • The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria

    • Identifying DIPs & MPGs

    • Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS

  • Run type diversity; residency and anadromy

  • Outlook


Slide3 l.jpg

Puget Sound steelhead status reviews

  • Originally reviewed in 1996; ESA listing not warranted

  • 2nd status review in response to September 2004 petition completed June 2007

  • DPS listed as threatened under ESA

  • Several populations continue steep declines despite harvest restrictions

  • Low productivity; poor FW/marine habitat conditions; use of non-local/ derived hatchery stocks; depressed LH diversity


Outline4 l.jpg
Outline

  • Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS

  • Recent changes

  • Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives

  • The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria

    • Identifying DIPs & MPGs

    • Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS

  • Run type diversity; residency and anadromy

  • Outlook


East puget sound steelhead l.jpg

Tolt SSH

Green WSH

East Puget Sound steelhead

Abundance

QET = 50

QET = 50

P(extinction)

Years


General roe patterns for puget sound steelhead l.jpg
General RoE patterns for Puget Sound steelhead

  • Some but not all northern PS populations are at relatively low risk of extinction

  • Populations in central and southern PS (except Green WSH) are generally smaller and most are declining

  • Hood Canal and SJF populations are small and at high risk, although some have been relatively stable

  • Status of many South Sound/Kitsap Peninsula independents and most SSH populations unclear

  • Of concern: Most central and SPS populations, many Hood Canal, all SJF populations


Outline7 l.jpg
Outline

  • Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS

  • Recent changes

  • Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives

  • The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria

    • Identifying DIPs & MPGs

    • Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS

  • Run type diversity; residency and anadromy

  • Outlook


Technical recovery team trt l.jpg
Technical Recovery Team (TRT)

  • When a population(s) under NOAA/USFWS jurisdiction is petitioned for listing under ESA, a Biological Review Team (BRT) of federal scientists determines its risk of extinction—the basis for a listing decision

  • Viable Salmonid Populations (VSP; McElhanyet al. 2000) criteria:

    • - Abundance, productivity, spatial structure, diversity

  • A TRT develops biological recovery (“viability”) criteria to guide recovery planning for listed unit

  • A TRT has two primary charges:

    • - Identify demographically independent populations (DIPs) and major population groups (MPGs) within the ESU/DPS

    • - Develop viability criteria for these units and the ESU/DPS


Outline9 l.jpg
Outline

  • Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS

  • Recent changes

  • Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives

  • The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria

    • Identifying DIPs & MPGs

    • Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS

  • Run type diversity; residency and anadromy

  • Outlook


Demographically independent populations major population groups l.jpg

DIPs < MPGs < DPS

Data are usually limiting, and TRTs have had to rely on indirect measures to identify DIPs and MPGs

TRTs have typically used simple decision rules to evaluate these factors

e.g., spawning populations separated by some amount

e.g., elevation/gradient/hydrograph differs substantially between areas

Assessment of historical populations a key element of identifying DIPs and MPGs

Demographically Independent Populations & Major Population Groups


Dip checklist l.jpg

Tier 1

Historical presence

Historical abundance

Demographic independence

Tier 2 (proxies)

Recent abundance

Intrinsic potential or other habitat based estimate of potential productivity

Basin size/drainage area

Geographic isolation

Genetic distance

Barriers

physical

seasonal

Ecological separation

Temporal isolation

Tier 3 (species surrogates)

Genetic distance

Geographic isolation

DIP checklist


Slide12 l.jpg

Neighbor-joining tree

C-S-E distances

13 μsat loci

Includes 2008 and 2009 collections

Strait of Juan de Fuca

West Hood Canal

South/Central Sound

North Sound

East Hood Canal



Dendrogram of gower si of habitat characteristics l.jpg
Dendrogram of Gower SI of habitat characteristics

High precip, snow pack

(and SSH)

Wider, more spawn-able area

Rain dominated, generally smaller

SJF


Slide16 l.jpg

How can we combine these data in a way that helps to identify DIPs?

Population dynamics

(PD.1)

Recent demographic independence

(PD)

W

W

Migration rates

(PD.2)

Adult number, etc. (PD.1.A...)

Ecological distinctiveness

(ED)

W

W

Life history traits

(EP.1)

Biological distinctiveness (BD)

Tag recoveries, etc. (PD.2.A...)

W

Ecophenotypic differences

(EP)

Genetic distinctiveness (GD)

Population independence

(IP)

W

W

W

Habitat characteristics

(EP.2)

Geographic isolation

(GI)

Run timing, etc. (EP.1.A...)

W

(from a concept by K. Currens, NWIFC)

Genetic distance, etc. (GD.1.A...)

W

W

Geographic distance, etc. (GI.1.A...)

Stream gradient, etc. (EP.2.A...)


Why a decision support system dss framework l.jpg
Why a Decision Support System (DSS) framework? identify DIPs?

  • “Fuzzy logic” system systematically incorporates degree of uncertainty into decision making

  • Almost any relevant criterion can be considered

  • Employs truth membership functions to evaluate the degree to which propositions are true

  • Uses logical operators (e.g., “AND”, “UNION”, “MEDIAN”, “AVERAGE”) and weighting factors to combine criteria

  • Provides a transparent, systematic, and repeatable framework to reach decisions supported by the available data


A truth membership function l.jpg
A truth membership function identify DIPs?

“Population will persist

= TRUE”

“I am completely uncertain whether the population will persist”

False Uncertain True

Truth value for proposition

1-P(extinction)

“Population will persist

= FALSE”


Some dss dip model inputs l.jpg
Some DSS DIP model inputs identify DIPs?

  • Historic populations identified from WDF steelhead catch statistics (1946-1970) and habitat-based intrinsic potential estimates

    • Minimum historic size (e.g., > 500 natural spawners/gen)

    • Minimum suitable habitat (e.g., > 20K m2 IP habitat)

  • Recent demographic data estimated from spawner escapements and selected age structure data (1970s-present)

  • Geographic distances, hydrographic data, and habitat features estimated from GIS data layers

  • Genetic distances based on pairwise FSTvalues from 13 microsatellite loci


Matrix of potential ps steelhead dips central south puget sound wsh l.jpg
Matrix of potential PS steelhead DIPs identify DIPs?(Central/South Puget Sound WSH)

DRAFT


Outline21 l.jpg
Outline identify DIPs?

  • Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS

  • Recent changes

  • Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives

  • The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria

    • Identifying DIPs & MPGs

    • Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS

  • Run type diversity; residency and anadromy

  • Outlook


Slide22 l.jpg

Puget Sound Chinook salmon identify DIPs?

ESU viability:

All MPGs must be viable

MPG viability

2-4 viable

populations

1 viable population from each major genetic and life-history group.

Suggested population size range

Distribution of spawning aggregations

Phenotypic and genotypic variation at population level

Catastrophe

ESU: Overall risk with distribution of pops and life histories in each MPG

Pop: % of affected by given catastrophe

Historical Abundance

SimSam

Habitat-based PVA (EDT)


Slide23 l.jpg

Abundance

Hatchery influence

PF

PP

PD

PS

Adult dist’n

Juvenile dist’n


Some dss viability model inputs l.jpg
Some DSS viability model inputs identify DIPs?

  • Abundance and productivity estimated from spawner escapements and available age structure data (1940s-present)

  • Risk of reaching QET estimated with simple PVA models

  • Analysis limited to winter-run fish (WSH)

  • So far, analysis limited to anadromous fish

  • For future: incorporate iteroparity and relative abundance of resident fish as VSP factors


Dss applied to ps steelhead viability mpg and dps levels l.jpg
DSS applied to PS steelhead viability: MPG and DPS levels identify DIPs?

Persistence

Functionality

Sustainability

Sustainability

Persistence

Diversity

DRAFT

…………..MPG level…………..

…..DPS level…..


Outline26 l.jpg
Outline identify DIPs?

  • Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS

  • Recent changes

  • Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives

  • The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria

    • Identifying DIPs & MPGs

    • Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS

  • Run type diversity; residency and anadromy

  • Outlook


Vsp diversity summer run life history l.jpg
VSP: Diversity identify DIPs?Summer-run life history

  • Historically at least 12 wild SSH populations existed in DPS

  • In 2002 SaSI, 16 SSH populations were identified as extant

    • Most of “unknown” status; only 2 considered “healthy” (Tolt, SF Skykomish [non-native])

    • 7 are monitored: Canyon Cr., Skagit, Snohomish, Tolt, Stillaguamish, Green, Elwha

  • Estimates of escapement available for only Tolt River SSH in northern Puget Sound


Slide28 l.jpg

VSP: Diversity identify DIPs?residency & anadromy

Proportion smolts from resident spawners

Marine survival

Smolts produced by resident spawners may be critical in supporting steelhead productivity during periods of low marine survival


Outline29 l.jpg
Outline identify DIPs?

  • Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS

  • Recent changes

  • Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives

  • The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria

    • Identifying DIPs & MPGs

    • Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS

  • Run type diversity; residency and anadromy

  • Outlook


Outlook l.jpg
Outlook identify DIPs?

  • TRT to identify draft viability criteria for Puget Sound steelhead in 2010

  • NOAA status review update due in 2010

  • Recovery planning is underway

  • Additional analyses planned:

    • Genetic samples

    • Finer-scale intrinsic potential estimates

    • Archived abundance and life history data

    • Puget Sound Chinook salmon gap analysis


Slide31 l.jpg

FIN identify DIPs?

Extra slides after this point


Steelhead ip habitat rating metrics l.jpg
Steelhead IP habitat rating metrics identify DIPs?

Puget Sound

Interior Columbia

(for comparison)



Spawner capacity estimates l.jpg
Spawner capacity estimates length

Assuming:

7.17 parr/100 m2

0.0265 spnrs/parr

(Gibbons et al. 1985)


ad