National Science Foundation: NSF and Space Weather Rich Behnke

1. National Science Foundation: NSF and Space Weather Rich Behnke Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences June 21, 2011

2. Space Weather at NSF NSF Role: • Fundamental research and modeling • Ground-based facilities • Education • Interagency Partner

3. The Space Weather System: Systems within Systems • The intellectual framework of the system view enables transferable concepts across systems and disciplines to advance and facilitate progress in understanding our whole sun-earth system • The system view engages the entire community by providing broad unifying goals • The system view provides new insight into geospace and exposes gaps in knowledge

4. SDO/AIA Fe XIV 211Å ~2MK SDO/AIA Fe XII 193Å ~1.3MK SDO/AIA Fe IX 171Å ~1MK SDO/AIA Movie Courtesy of Ralph Seguin (LMSAL)

5. From SDO/AIA we see that coronal loops show disturbances propagating at speeds often > 100km/s Those disturbances are the signature of mass being inserted into the solar corona - rooted in very fast moving spicules abundantly observed in the lower atmosphere, likely driven by small-scale magnetic reconnection De Pontieu et al., 2011, Science, 331, 55

6. Shrinking Thermosphere Linked to Low levels of UV Radiation • Record low temperature and density were primarily caused by unusually low levels of solar radiation at the extreme-ultraviolet level (not increased carbon dioxide) • NCAR results using the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model. • Lowering of the thermosphere height and density means that satellites can more easily maintain their orbits., but space debris becomes more of an issue. Thermospheric density has dropped 31%, temperature 41 degrees K in last prolonged solar minimum.

7. Oct. 29 Oct. 30 Oct. 31 GPS Navigation Position Errors due to SEDS Typicalpositioningerrors are a fewmetersbutduringstormenhanceddensity (SEDS) eventserrors can be 15-25 meter. Storm Enhanced Density (SED)

8. First Large-Scale, Physics-Based Space Weather Model Transition into Operation • The model will provide forecasters with a one-to-four day advance warning of high speed streams of solar plasma and Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs). • These streams from the Sun may severely disrupt or damage space- and ground-based communications systems, and pose hazards to satellite operations. • Having key team members co-located during the development phase enabled on going discussions between scientists and forecasters that enhanced the model and led to NOAA’s decision to bring it into operations.

9. The Resolute Bay Incoherent Scatter Radar

10. SuperDARN

11. Data acquisition up and running! Old Data AMPERE: Standard AMPERE: High Side-by-side comparison of data acquired in 10 minutes. Old: 200 s/sample Standard AMPERE: complete coverage with ~1° lat. res. 20 s/sample High rate AMPERE: ~ 0.1° lat. res. 2 s/sample 10/01/2002 11:55-12:05 11/25/2009 08:45-08:55 11/24/2009 18:27-18:37 Different colors denote different satellites TLM data from all satellites

12. Perfect First Launch! RAX Nov 19 2010 Kodiak, AK Minotaur IV, STP-S26 First science data! Taken 12/10/2010

13. NASA ELaNa-sponsored launch on NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) mission • Delta II rocket, Vandenberg Air Force Base • 824 km circular, sun-synchronous orbit (10:30 local-time) • DICE & RAX-2 Next up for launch: Fall 2011

14. Advanced Technology Solar Telescope Construction to begin in the Spring /Summer of 2011 First light in 2018/2019 A 4-meter diameter main mirror, combined with the latest in computer and adaptive optics technology, will give the ATST the sharpest views ever of the surface of the Sun. We are positioned for a new era of discovery about the Sun and the subtle ways it affects life on Earth. To do this we must observe the Sun and its magnetic activities with the high spectral, spatial, and temporal resolutions that will be made possible with ATST.

15. Summer Schools • AMISR Summer School – learn how to operate a radar! • CISM Summer School • The Center for Integrated Space- Weather Modeling (CISM) conducts a summer school for 2 weeks each year to introduce graduate students to the issues and problems of space weather modeling.

16. Other Educational Opportunities • CAREER • Faculty Development in Space Sciences (FDSS) • AGS Postdoctoral Research Fellowship Program • GRF (Graduate Research Fellowships) • Research Experiences for Teachers (RET)

17. Some New Opportunities at NSF • CaMRA – a Directorate-wide initiative The overarching goal of CaMRA (Creating aMore Disaster Resilient America) is to catalyze basic research efforts at NSF in hazard-related science, engineering, risk assessment and decision making in order to improve forecasting and prediction of natural and made-made hazards, mitigate their effects, and prevent and recover from disasters • Faculty development in Space Science Create tenure track positions within the university system. Returns (one or two positions) in FY2012.

18. NSF – Partners in a multi-agency effort • Collaborations with NASA • Community Coordinated Modeling Center • Possible new FY2012 Modeling Effort • Collaborations with the DOD • Possible joint initiative with AFOSR (and NOAA) in scintillations • Continued collaborations with ONR (GAIM project) • The National Space Weather Program • Organized through the office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology • Partners with NASA, NOAA, DOD, DOI, State, FAA, DOE • NSF, NOAA, NASA and DOD are co-chairs • Next: International cooperation – already doing quite a bit (Europe, South America, Japan, working with China) but we will expand this.

19. Space Weather at NSF • We are making remarkable progress in understanding, observations and modeling that dynamic space between the Sun and the Earth that we call GEOSPACE • We are actively engaged in the education of the next generation of space scientists • We are catalysts for interagency efforts