Climate review for february 2005 song yang noaa s climate prediction center 8 march 2005
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Climate Review for February 2005 Song Yang NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center 8 March 2005 Contents: Monthly and submonthly features Seasonal mean features Verification of CPC Predictions CPC outlooks 1. Monthly & Submonthly Features

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Climate Review for February 2005 Song Yang NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center 8 March 2005

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Climate Reviewfor February 2005Song YangNOAA’s Climate Prediction Center8 March 2005

Contents:Monthly and submonthly featuresSeasonal mean featuresVerification of CPC PredictionsCPC outlooks


1. Monthly & Submonthly Features

“I don’t understand why meteorologists use the CALENDAR monthly means”


Feb T’


Weekly T Anomalies

Week 1

Week 3

Week 2

Week 4


Weekly T’

Europe

20-26 Feb

Weekly T’

Canada


Feb P’


Weekly P Ratio

Week 1

Week 3

Week 2

Week 4


Australia Feb T’ & P’

T’

P’


California Again!

19th


Daily Precip in Feb 2005


90-Day Precip & OLR Time Series


SOI

NINO3.4 SST


Darwin

Tahiti


???


X


12-18

<5th

6-11

19-25

Global Hazards


Jan. Floods Lasting to Feb.

USA

Indonesia

Guyana

Angola

Mozambique

Madagascar


Guyana

Long-lasting floods!


Mozambique

Frequent floods during the past years


New Floods in February

Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan

Greece

Pakistan

Venezuela

Saudi Arabia

Colombia

Indonesia

Brazil

Bolivia

Australia

Australian floods: damage of $200 mil


Pakistan floods: most deadly in 2005 so far


Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan flood: Affected 135,400 Km2; 2nd most extensive in 2005, after the northeastern Australian flood during 23-28 January


2. Seasonal Mean Features

Oops! We only had 28 days in this February.


DJF T’


DJF P’


El Nino Features?

DJF T’

DJF P’


3. Verification of CPC predictions


Feb 2005 TOfficial, Update, & Observations

Off. Up. Change

All Stations: 18.4 41.0 22.6

Non-EC: 40.6 57.1 16.5

% Cov: 45.3 71.8 26.5

OBS

UPD

0.5 Lead


Feb 2005 POfficial, Update, & Observations

Off. Up. Change

All Stations: 19.7 0.4 -19.3

Non-EC: 52.5 0.8 -51.5

% Cov: 37.6 53.0 15.4

OBS

UPD

0.5 Lead


All Non-EC % Cov

9.4 14.9 63.2

DJF T Outlook

DJF T Obs


All Non-EC % Cov

1.3 3.6 35.9

DJF P Outlook

DJF P Obs


4. CPC Climate Outlooks


Monthly T & P Outlooks

For March


For JJA

Seasonal T & P Outlooks

For MAM


Consolidation NINO3.4 SST Prediction


Drought Outlook

Through May


Soil Moisture Outlook

Through Mar

Thr Jun

Thr May

Thr Aug


Acknowledgements Gerry Bell, Yun Fan, Mike Halpert, John Janowiak, Doug LeComte, Wei Shi, Jim Wagner, and Yan Xue


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