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Climate Review for February 2005 Song Yang NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center 8 March 2005 Contents: Monthly and submonthly features Seasonal mean features Verification of CPC Predictions CPC outlooks 1. Monthly & Submonthly Features

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Climate Review for February 2005 Song Yang NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center 8 March 2005

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Climate review for february 2005 song yang noaa s climate prediction center 8 march 2005 l.jpg

Climate Reviewfor February 2005Song YangNOAA’s Climate Prediction Center8 March 2005

Contents:Monthly and submonthly featuresSeasonal mean featuresVerification of CPC PredictionsCPC outlooks


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1. Monthly & Submonthly Features

“I don’t understand why meteorologists use the CALENDAR monthly means”


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Feb T’


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Weekly T Anomalies

Week 1

Week 3

Week 2

Week 4


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Weekly T’

Europe

20-26 Feb

Weekly T’

Canada


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Feb P’


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Weekly P Ratio

Week 1

Week 3

Week 2

Week 4


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Australia Feb T’ & P’

T’

P’


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California Again!

19th


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Daily Precip in Feb 2005


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90-Day Precip & OLR Time Series


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SOI

NINO3.4 SST


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Darwin

Tahiti


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???


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X


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12-18

<5th

6-11

19-25

Global Hazards


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Jan. Floods Lasting to Feb.

USA

Indonesia

Guyana

Angola

Mozambique

Madagascar


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Guyana

Long-lasting floods!


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Mozambique

Frequent floods during the past years


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New Floods in February

Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan

Greece

Pakistan

Venezuela

Saudi Arabia

Colombia

Indonesia

Brazil

Bolivia

Australia

Australian floods: damage of $200 mil


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Pakistan floods: most deadly in 2005 so far


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Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan flood: Affected 135,400 Km2; 2nd most extensive in 2005, after the northeastern Australian flood during 23-28 January


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2. Seasonal Mean Features

Oops! We only had 28 days in this February.


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DJF T’


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DJF P’


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El Nino Features?

DJF T’

DJF P’


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3. Verification of CPC predictions


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Feb 2005 TOfficial, Update, & Observations

Off. Up. Change

All Stations: 18.4 41.0 22.6

Non-EC: 40.6 57.1 16.5

% Cov: 45.3 71.8 26.5

OBS

UPD

0.5 Lead


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Feb 2005 POfficial, Update, & Observations

Off. Up. Change

All Stations: 19.7 0.4 -19.3

Non-EC: 52.5 0.8 -51.5

% Cov: 37.6 53.0 15.4

OBS

UPD

0.5 Lead


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All Non-EC % Cov

9.4 14.9 63.2

DJF T Outlook

DJF T Obs


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All Non-EC % Cov

1.3 3.6 35.9

DJF P Outlook

DJF P Obs


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4. CPC Climate Outlooks


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Monthly T & P Outlooks

For March


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For JJA

Seasonal T & P Outlooks

For MAM


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Consolidation NINO3.4 SST Prediction


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Drought Outlook

Through May


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Soil Moisture Outlook

Through Mar

Thr Jun

Thr May

Thr Aug


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Acknowledgements Gerry Bell, Yun Fan, Mike Halpert, John Janowiak, Doug LeComte, Wei Shi, Jim Wagner, and Yan Xue


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