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East zone “Plan” components

(1) System hardware capability Plant: units, tanks (capabilities) movements: ships, jetties, pipelines, etc. Process engineer input (2) Price forecast Focus on margin Shell system (complex). (3) Demand (Note: net of exchange supplies) Forecastable (100% accuracy) Other “planned” demand

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East zone “Plan” components

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  1. (1) System hardware capability Plant: units, tanks (capabilities) movements: ships, jetties, pipelines, etc. Process engineer input (2) Price forecast Focus on margin Shell system (complex) (3) Demand (Note: net of exchange supplies) Forecastable (100% accuracy) Other “planned” demand (4) Avails: Crude / feedstock (easy) Spot product (hard) No “piror to deal” availability tracking system (similar to Enron Seibel system) East zone “Plan” components Typically

  2. East Zone - Broad crude selection cycle 15 days SRFO • Weekly update • 90 day horizon • 2 months out “Plan” • Use CSA evaluation tool • Price willing to pay, up to “X” • Volume willing to buy, up to “Y” “Mandate” • Bought or • Firm contract “Commit” • 2/3 day improvement in cycle time • worth $0.3/bbl • Cargo strategy • East - 70 term, 30 spot • West - 50 term, 50 spot “Programmed” “Scheduled”

  3. Prices • Runs • Plant Constraint • Demands Monthly look 90 days out Low Constraints “stay open” 400kb opportunity “Run Rate” Feasible 200kb Short range forecast Programme 30 - 60 days A B C D Pick feasible option Tank blends Hourly Plant Crude planning vs scheduling time cycle

  4. More about the plan ODW data management Change tracking Plan order of analysis: 1. System Hardware • Process engineers rule • 3 months out • Tanks, units, limits, ships 2. Price Forecast • Shell • Margin analysis 3. Demand (Net) • Plan us • Meet 100% 4. Avails • Crude • Feed Stocks • Products “Need potential cargo tracking capability” Then to Trading

  5. Finish product Sulphur Ocefins Lubs / base iok Jat / Avgas Distillates LPG Mogas Slurry Bitumen Naphther Solvents Aromatics Bunkers Fuel Oil Components Isoms MTBE Alkylase P$ CCg LCO HGO Slurry Tasksheet families Feedstocks • Chemfeed • VGO • Condensate • LSLR • Plot feed • Ultilities

  6. Setting the three main types of scenarios The skill triangle Stasco Scenario I: Periodic replacing (on a supply envelope basis) Scenario II: Incremental opportunity MSD Aviation Chemicals Base oils Commercial • Within planning cycle update • Who sells it? • What price? • Scenario III: Upset • Quick respond to upset • Stabilise more quickly

  7. What problem is SCITe trying to solve PARIS Lensbury (May 01) workshop input 1 All Envelopes 1. Vision to aim for 2. What the sponsors think 3. Is it technically possible? 4. At what cost? Where the people are Paris Task sheet / CSA 2 Across one envelope Time and depth of solution PDS SCO tool 3 Day-to-Day inside one envelope Sydney Impress Breadth of solution

  8. Applying APS to downstream - The challenge “Discretionary Demand” Opportunity Tranches Smooth Law of large numbers Volume • Variable • Seasonal • Predictable Base load demand “Non Discretionary” Time Related Authority Level Increasing impact on base load business “Higher Authority” approval • Background operational • Routine • Exception reporting

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