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WP20500 Early Warning. Bhupendra Jasani Department of War Studies - King’s College London – UK Valerio Tramutoli Department of Physics and Engineering of the Environment University of Basilicata – Potenza - IT. WP20500 Early Warning.

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Wp20500 early warning

WP20500Early Warning

Bhupendra Jasani

Department of War Studies - King’s College London – UK

Valerio Tramutoli

Department of Physics and Engineering of the Environment

University of Basilicata – Potenza - IT


Wp20500 early warning1

WP20500 Early Warning

Objectives: to test the ability of different techniques for providing early indications of security events that might pose a risk to civilian populations.


Test cases done in progress

TEST CASES (done/in progress)


Invasion of kuwait by iraq detecting troup and tanks movements

Invasion of Kuwait by Iraq: detecting troup and tanks movements

SPOT image over Iraq on the

northern border of Kuwait.

artillery position and possible tank area.


Invasion of kuwait by iraq detecting oil spill due to pipeline sabotage

Invasion of Kuwait by Iraq: detecting oil spill due to pipeline sabotage

Oil spill

NOAA_AVHRR

Channel 4 (10.5-11.3 mm)

January 24, 1991

h10 GMT


Iraq crisis oil pipeline sabotages july 4 2004

OIL FIRE

OIL SMOKE

Iraq crisis: oil pipeline sabotages (July 4, 2004)

MSG-SEVIRI: Channel 4 (3.9 mm)

July 4, 2004

h 12:00 GMT


Egypt hotel hilton s explosion in taba october 7 2004

EGYPT: Hotel Hilton’s explosion in Taba (October 7, 2004)

October 7th 2004, 19:00 GMT

SEVIRI channel: 3.9 m

just before explosion

Red Sea

October 7th 2004, 19:15 GMT

SEVIRI channel: 3.9 m

after explosion

Taba

Red Sea


Iraq oil pipeline blast june 22 2005

Since 13:15 GMT: AFTER THE PIPELINE SABOTAGE.

SEVIRI images allow us to monitor the oil fire and the growing smoke cloud

12:45 GMT:SHORTLY BEFORE THE PIPELINE SABOTAGE

(22nd June 2005, Lat=35° 4’ 48’’ N, Long=43° 32’ 23’’E)

13:45 GMT

13:30 GMT

13:15 GMT

MSG-SEVIRI - Channel 3.9 mm 22-06-2005

MSG-SEVIRI - Ch 3.9 mm

MAP OF KNOWN OIL PIPELINE

Oil fire

Smoke oil

14:00 GMT

14:15 GMT

14:30 GMT

©Eumetsat 2005

From: http://www.iags.org/iraqpipelinewatch.htm

©Eumetsat 2005

13:00 GMT: IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE PIPELINE SABOTAGE.

Oil fire ( ) along a known pipeline is clearly visible over SEVIRI image.

Oil fire

©Eumetsat 2005

IRAQ: oil pipeline blast (June 22, 2005)


Research achivements suitable for integration robust change detection satellite techniques

Research achivements suitable for integrationRobust (Change Detection) Satellite Techniques

  • short scale changes(in the space and/or in time)

    • volcanic eruptions (Ann.of Geoph.,2001,2004, Remote Sens. of Env., 2004a, 2004b)

    • forest fires detection(Int. J. of Rem. Sens, 2001)

    • oil spill monitoring(IWA, 2003, RSE-sub. 2005)

    • cloud-detection (Atmosph. Research., 2004)

  • medium, long scale,changes(in space and/or time)

    • air and water quality and pollution monitoring (e.g. IRS, 2001)

    • flood mapping and Soil Wetness Variation monitoring ( IRS, 2001, RSE 2005)

    • seismic area monitoring(Ann. Geoph.,2001, 2004, Phy. Chem.Earth, 2004, RSE 2005)

    • etc…...


Robust satellite techniques reliability fire detection

3(x,y,t) >3

Voltri(Ge)

Erli

Voltri (Ge)

Casanova Lerrone

Carpasio

Seborga

Erli

N

Casanova Lerrone

Carpasio

N

MISSED FIRES

Seborga fire started in the afternoon

hours after NOAA-AVHRR pass

Robust Satellite Techniques (reliability) Fire Detection

RST (AVHRR at 1:00 GMT)

EOS-MODIS (MOD14-algorithm)

North-Italy WINTER (17 Feb 2005 24 h)

NO MISSED NO FALSE FIRES


Wp20500 early warning bhupendra jasani

Fires detected

AVHRR – 5th july 2000 15:00 GMT (South Italy)

Mar Ionio

Actual fires

FALSE ALARMS

Mar Ionio

NO FALSE

ALARMS

3(x,y,t) >5

RST

Mar Ionio

Kennedy et al.(1993)

Kaufman et al. (1990)

Mar Ionio

Flasse &Ceccato (1996)


Wp20500 early warning bhupendra jasani

3(x,y,t) >3

3(x,y,t) >4

3(x,y,t) >5

Fires detected

AVHRR – 5th july 2000 15:00 GMT (South Italy)

Mar Ionio

Mar Ionio

Actual fires

FALSE ALARMS

RST tunability:

Thermal structure

description

3(x,y,t) >5

Mar Ionio

Kennedy et al.(1993)

Kaufman et al. (1990)

Mar Ionio

RST

Flasse &Ceccato (1996)


Wp20500 early warning bhupendra jasani

Robust Satellite Techniques (reliability & tunability)Lava flow Monitoring (July-August, 2001 Etna flank eruption, NOAA-AVHRR)

Cratere di N.E.

Voragine

Valle del Leone

Bocca Nuova

Rifugio Sapienza

Zafferana

Montagnola

Valle del Bove

SP 92

Nicolosi

Alice>3

Alice >2

Lava flow crossing SP92 road

July 19 2001

July-August 2001

lava flows reports


Wp20500 early warning bhupendra jasani

Robust Satellite Techniques (sensitivity & reliability)Pre-eruptive thermal anomalies (July-August, 2001 Etna flank eruption)

July 13 2001 (i.e. 4 days before the major lava vent opening at 2700 m)

Cratere di N.E.

Voragine

Valle del Leone

Bocca Nuova

Zafferana

Montagnola

Valle del Bove

Rifugio Sapienza

SP 92

Nicolosi

Alice >3

Alice >2

July-August 2001

lava flows reports


Wp20500 early warning bhupendra jasani

S/N

Etna (Italy): 2004-2005 eruption

MSG-SEVIRI

February 15 2005

h 01:00 GMT

Channel 4 (3.9 mm)

7

2


Wp20500 early warning bhupendra jasani

RST

Cross, 1991, T4 > 289.8 K

> 5

oil spill

pipeline

oil spill

oil spill

FALSE ALARMS

FALSE ALARMS

sea

land

1991- 01- 24

(channel 4 AVHRR - 10.38 GMT)

1991- 01- 24

(channel 4 AVHRR - 10.38 GMT)

Robust Satellite Techniques (reliability) Oil Spill Detection (NOAA-AVHRR)

23 - 30 January 1991 (Gulf War): release of crude oil on Kuwait and Saudi Arabia coast


Ungary flood april 2002

Flooded

Ungary flood April 2002

RST on

NOAA-AVHRR

23 April 2000 13:00 GMT


Research achivements suitable for integration robust change detection satellite techniques1

Research achivements suitable for integrationRobust (Change Detection) Satellite Techniques

RST approach demonstrated to be

robustagainst false alarms

effective even in adverse observational conditions

sensitivetoward very low (absolute) signal variations

automaticnot requiring supervision

adjustable for event detail description

exportable directly on different geographic areas and different satellite platforms


Additional test cases for integration

ADDITIONAL TEST CASES FOR INTEGRATION


Wp20500 early warning bhupendra jasani

INTEGRATION

  • The results so far are encouraging

  • There is a number of WP with which integration can be intensified:

    • Treaty monitoring

    • Change detection

    • Facility signatures

    • Infrastructure monitoring

    • Border monitoring

    • Security concept

    • Population Monitoring


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