The 3-rd ACES Working Group Meeting
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The 3-rd ACES Working Group Meeting Opening Address. Peter Mora Chair, Research Committee, ACcESS MNRF Executive Director, ACES Director, QUAKES. The scientific debate. “... small earthquake have some probability of cascading into a large event …” Geller et al

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The 3-rd ACES Working Group Meeting

Opening Address

Peter Mora

Chair, Research Committee, ACcESS MNRF

Executive Director, ACES

Director, QUAKES


The scientific debate l.jpg
The scientific debate

“... small earthquake have some probability of cascading into a large event …” Geller et al

“Earthquake prediction is difficult but not impossible, …” Knopoff

The problem

“No satisfactory theory of theearthquakesource process exists at present”, Geller


The apec cooperation for earthquake simulation aces l.jpg
The APEC Cooperation forEarthquake Simulation (ACES)

  • To develop realistic numerical simulation models

  • 2. To foster collaboration

  • 3. To foster development of infrastructure & programs

Develop a unified simulation model for earthquake generation and earthquake cycles


Multi scale simulator l.jpg

Spatial Scale, m

Spatial Scale, m

Time scale, sec.

Time scale, sec.

Multi-scale simulator


Outcomes l.jpg
Outcomes

  • Simulation models

    • 3 x 2 volume journal issues + 3 proceedings

  • Collaboration

    • Earthquake physics & catastrophic failure

    • Simulation models and software

    • Australia, China, Japan, USA visitors & collab programs (30+ visits, joint publications)

  • Infrastructure

    • GEM, ServoGrid, QuakeSim

    • Earth Simulator, GeoFEM

    • Key national program for catastroophic failure

    • ACcESS MNRF


Japan l.jpg
Japan

Earth Simulator:

The world’s fastest supercomputer

GeoFEM: Premier large-scale finite-element software platform for solid earth simulation

  • Solid Earth Simulator Project:

  • Forefront macro-scale research

  • Subduction zone dynamics,

  • crustal activity and strong motion

  • Mantle and core dynamics

Courtesy of Okuda, Matsu’ura and Matsui


China l.jpg
China

Fracture physics, mesoscopic damage models, intraplate observations

Courtesy of Yin, Xia and Bai


Usa simulation of the ca interacting fault system l.jpg
USASimulation of the CA interacting fault system

Courtesy of Rundle, Donnellan and Olsen


Australia l.jpg
Australia

  • Micro-models

  • Earthquake physics

    and dynamics

  • Crustal & mantle models


The australian computational earth systems simulator access major national research facility l.jpg
The Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator (ACcESS)Major National Research Facility

A multi-scale multi-physics ESS

  • Achieve a holistic virtual earth simulation capability

  • Provide a computational virtual earth serving

  • Australia’s national needs

  • One of two science Major National Research Facilities

  • being established in Australia

  • Developsoftware & models, and establish

  • thematic supercomputerneeded for research outcomes


Multi institutional multi disciplinary l.jpg

  • Victoria (ACcESS)

  • ACRC/Mon, VPAC, Melb, RMIT

  • Geology, tectonics reconstruction

  • Min. exploration, SE/Vis/IT

Queensland (MNRF HQ)

QUAKES

Micro-models, LSMearth software

Comp. ES, earthquakes

ParticleModels

ContinuumModels

DataAssimilation

PostProcessing

Visualisation

Western Australia

Theory

Observ’s

Solid Mech, CSIRO; UWA

Communication Substrate

Nonlinear rheologies, geodynamics

Comp. mech, mining,

Computational

Virtual earth laboratory

Multi-institutional, multi-disciplinary


Slide12 l.jpg

convergent (ACcESS)

plate boundary

transform

plate boundary

continental

crust

divergent

plate boundary

oceanic

spreading ridge

convergent

plate boundary

trench

strato volcano

trench

shield volcano

oceanic

crust

island arc

hot spot

subducting plate

lithosphere

asthenosphere

Earth dynamics


Slide13 l.jpg

convergent (ACcESS)

plate boundary

transform

plate boundary

continental

crust

divergent

plate boundary

oceanic

spreading ridge

convergent

plate boundary

trench

strato volcano

trench

shield volcano

oceanic

crust

island arc

hot spot

subducting plate

lithosphere

asthenosphere

Earth dynamics


Slide14 l.jpg

convergent (ACcESS)

plate boundary

transform

plate boundary

continental

crust

divergent

plate boundary

oceanic

spreading ridge

convergent

plate boundary

trench

strato volcano

trench

shield volcano

oceanic

crust

island arc

hot spot

subducting plate

lithosphere

asthenosphere

Earth dynamics

(Muhlhaus and Weatherley)


Slide15 l.jpg

convergent (ACcESS)

plate boundary

transform

plate boundary

continental

crust

divergent

plate boundary

oceanic

spreading ridge

convergent

plate boundary

trench

strato volcano

trench

shield volcano

oceanic

crust

island arc

hot spot

subducting plate

lithosphere

asthenosphere

Earth dynamics


Slide16 l.jpg

convergent (ACcESS)

plate boundary

transform

plate boundary

continental

crust

divergent

plate boundary

oceanic

spreading ridge

convergent

plate boundary

trench

strato volcano

trench

shield volcano

oceanic

crust

island arc

hot spot

subducting plate

lithosphere

asthenosphere

Earth dynamics


Earth dynamics l.jpg

convergent (ACcESS)

plate boundary

transform

plate boundary

continental

crust

divergent

plate boundary

oceanic

spreading ridge

convergent

plate boundary

trench

strato volcano

trench

shield volcano

oceanic

crust

island arc

hot spot

subducting plate

lithosphere

asthenosphere

Earth dynamics

(Mora and Place)


Slide18 l.jpg

convergent (ACcESS)

plate boundary

transform

plate boundary

continental

crust

divergent

plate boundary

oceanic

spreading ridge

convergent

plate boundary

trench

strato volcano

trench

shield volcano

oceanic

crust

island arc

hot spot

subducting plate

lithosphere

asthenosphere

Earth dynamics


Earth dynamics19 l.jpg

convergent (ACcESS)

plate boundary

transform

plate boundary

continental

crust

divergent

plate boundary

oceanic

spreading ridge

convergent

plate boundary

trench

strato volcano

trench

shield volcano

oceanic

crust

island arc

hot spot

subducting plate

lithosphere

asthenosphere

Earth dynamics

(Mora and Place)


Earth dynamics20 l.jpg

convergent (ACcESS)

plate boundary

transform

plate boundary

continental

crust

divergent

plate boundary

oceanic

spreading ridge

convergent

plate boundary

trench

strato volcano

trench

shield volcano

oceanic

crust

island arc

hot spot

subducting plate

lithosphere

asthenosphere

Earth dynamics


Earth dynamics21 l.jpg

convergent (ACcESS)

plate boundary

transform

plate boundary

continental

crust

divergent

plate boundary

oceanic

spreading ridge

convergent

plate boundary

trench

strato volcano

trench

shield volcano

oceanic

crust

island arc

hot spot

subducting plate

lithosphere

asthenosphere

Earth dynamics

(Sandiford)


Earth dynamics22 l.jpg

convergent (ACcESS)

plate boundary

transform

plate boundary

continental

crust

divergent

plate boundary

oceanic

spreading ridge

convergent

plate boundary

trench

strato volcano

trench

shield volcano

oceanic

crust

island arc

hot spot

subducting plate

lithosphere

asthenosphere

Earth dynamics


Earth dynamics23 l.jpg

convergent (ACcESS)

plate boundary

transform

plate boundary

continental

crust

divergent

plate boundary

oceanic

spreading ridge

convergent

plate boundary

trench

strato volcano

trench

shield volcano

oceanic

crust

island arc

hot spot

subducting plate

lithosphere

asthenosphere

Earth dynamics

(Moresi and Muhlhaus)


Slide24 l.jpg

BENEFITS (ACcESS)

convergent

plate boundary

transform

plate boundary

continental

crust

divergent

plate boundary

oceanic

spreading ridge

convergent

plate boundary

trench

strato volcano

trench

shield volcano

oceanic

crust

island arc

hot spot

subducting plate

lithosphere

asthenosphere

Earth dynamics

  • Planetary scale minerals exploration

  • predictive capacity for regional scale crustal deformation and mineralisation

  • vastly improved scientific underpinning for natural & human-induced geohazard mitigation and prevention

  • virtual prototyping innovations of massive or national scale natural and engineered systems

  • a potential for high-tech spin-offs involving novel mining and materials engineering technologies


Software framework l.jpg

Super-Computer Capacity (ACcESS)

EXPERT

USER

Parameter

Setting

Interface

(input)

Interface

(translator)

Software

Type 1

Visualisation

Interface

(input / output)

Interface

(translator)

Software

Type 2

Interface

(translator)

Software

Type 3

Template

Thinking /

Selling Tool

(most

parameters set)

NON-

EXPERT

USER

Inversion

Software

(Complex

System

Science)

Database 1

Thermodynamic

Interface

Database 2

Rock property

Software framework

Software

Independent

Problem

Formulation

(Geometric &

Mathematical)


Management structure l.jpg

ACcESS BOARD (ACcESS)

Mike Etheridge

CHAIR

CHAIR RESEARCH COMMITTEE

CEO

TBA

Peter Mora

MODEL & SOFTWARE CONSTRUCTION

DATA ASSIMILATION & SURFACE PROCESSES

Muhlhaus, Appelbe, Gross

Lister & Applebe

Long Term

Short Term

CONTINUUM

PARTICLE & EXPLICIT

DATA ASSIMILATION

G. Lister, L. Ailleress Monash

H. Muhlhaus UQ

D.I. & H.X. UQ

PLATE MANTLE

CRUSTAL DYNAMICS

VIRTUAL EARTH

A. Dyskin UWA

S. Abe UQ

MULTISCALE MODELLING

EXPLICIT SIM.

PLATFORM

M. Sandiford Melb. Uni.

SURFACE PROCESSES

P. A-Epping /

P.Hornby CSIRO

D. Weatherly UQ

MINERALISATION

CELLULAR AUTOMATA

GEOTALK

L. Gross (UQ)

Management structure


Vision for future solid earth systems science l.jpg

Computational (ACcESS)

Virtual earth laboratory

c.f. GCM’s

Model

Observns

Analysis

Vision for future solid earth systems science

A predictive capability for solid earth system dynamics

Advances in understanding solid earth physics, numerical

simulation methodology & supercomputer technology

are bringing the vision within reach


Next steps l.jpg
Next steps (ACcESS)

  • Integrate software developments and computational environments/algorithms

  • Ramp-up of national programs to capture benefits of investment in research infrastructure

  • Enhance supercomputers and connectivity

  • Strengthen international collaboration and establish large scale programatic research - international institute in two years time frame

iSERVO Institute

International Solid Earth Research Virtual Earth Institute


Simulation a powerful tool to fuel breakthroughs l.jpg

Computational (ACcESS)

Virtual earth laboratory

Model

Observn’s

Analysis

SimulationA powerful tool to fuel breakthroughs


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